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日本的高市早苗试图以持续实施的支出政策安抚市场Japan's Takaichi aims to reassure markets with spending policy ongoing

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东京——日本首相高市早苗试图就其政府的财政政策向金融市场释放安抚信号,她于周一承诺将根据经济和市场的状况“灵活”应对,但并未给出任何将偏离其扩张性支出议程的明显迹象。

TOKYO -- Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi sought to reassure financial markets over her government's fiscal policy, pledging on Monday to respond "flexibly" to economic and market conditions while giving little indication that she will shift from her expansionary spending agenda.

这种语气转变的背景是,高市早苗正面临市场对日本财政状况日益增长的担忧,以及来自美国要求其避免发出可能进一步削弱日元的再通胀信号的压力。但分析师表示,她的言论并未提供政策发生根本性转变的任何证据。

The change in tone comes as Takaichi faces growing market concern over Japan's fiscal position and pressure from the U.S. to avoid reflationary messages that could further weaken the yen. But analysts said her remarks offered little evidence of a fundamental change in policy.

在标志着特别国会开幕的演讲中,高市早苗表示,政府将根据经济和市场的状况“灵活且迅速”地调整财政政策。

In her speech marking the opening of an extraordinary Diet session, Takaichi said the government would adjust fiscal policy "flexibly and swiftly" according to economic and market conditions.

她表示,东京将根据利率和其他市场状况来确定年度债券发行量,并补充说,她的政府将通过“正统的政策措施”来“建立市场对政府的信心”。这些言论体现了高市早苗在平衡其致力于扩张性经济议程(旨在缓解通胀影响导致的成本压力)与日益增长的日元及日本本已紧张的公共财政担忧之间的努力。

Tokyo would determine annual bond issuance by taking into account interest rates and other market conditions, she said, adding that her government would "build market confidence in the government through orthodox policy measures." The comments represent an effort by Takaichi to balance her commitment to an expansionary economic agenda that aims to soothe the cost of living caused by the impact of inflation, with growing concerns over the yen and Japan's already strained public finances.

在发表政策演讲之前,她回应了周日一名美国海军陆战队员因涉嫌在冲绳抢劫并杀害一名日本女性而被捕一事,随后日本向美国提出了正式抗议。

Before her policy speech, she addressed the arrest on Sunday of a U.S. Marine on suspicion of robbing and murdering a Japanese woman in Okinawa, after which Japan lodged a formal protest with the U.S.

高市早苗表示:“发生如此极其残忍和恶劣的事件,令人深感遗憾。”

"The occurrence of such an extremely brutal and vicious incident is extremely regrettable," Takaichi said.

她重申了周日发表的声明,称“日本政府强烈抗议美方,并强烈要求与调查工作展开最大程度的合作”,同时要求加强纪律并彻底采取措施防止此类事件再次发生。

She reiterated her statement disclosed on Sunday, saying, "The government of Japan strongly protests to the U.S. side and strongly seeks maximum cooperation with the investigation," as well as the tightening of discipline and thorough measures to prevent a recurrence.

此次逮捕行动正值高市保守派政府政治敏感时期。上个月,由她所属执政党支持的一位候选人赢得了冲绳县知事选举,结束了此前12年来反对美国军事基地在该县高度集中的知事执政。

The arrest comes at a politically sensitive moment for Takaichi's conservative government. A candidate backed by her ruling party won the Okinawa gubernatorial election last month, ending 12 years of rule by governors opposed to the heavy concentration of U.S. military bases in the prefecture.

冲绳县驻扎着日本境内约1.8万名美国海军陆战队的绝大多数兵力。二战后,这些岛屿在美国管辖下近三十年,直到1972年才回归日本管辖。

Okinawa hosts the bulk of the roughly 18,000 U.S. Marines stationed in Japan. The islands remained under U.S. administration for nearly three decades after World War II before being returned to Japanese control in 1972.

在高市的扩张性支出计划中,她主张到2040年投入370万亿日元(合2.3万亿美元)的公共和私人投资,以支持经济增长、缓解生活成本压力,并推动暂时降低食品消费税。支持高市经济政策的人士认为,该政策强调战略投资,短期内可通过刺激需求提升日本潜在增长率,同时长期扩大经济的生产能力。

In her expansionary spending agenda, Takaichi has championed 370 trillion yen ($2.3 trillion) in public and private investment by 2040 aimed at supporting growth and easing cost-of-living pressures and has pushed for a temporary cut in the consumption tax on food. Supporters of Takaichi's economic policy argue that its emphasis on strategic investment would raise Japan's potential growth by stimulating demand in the short term while expanding the economy's productive capacity over time.

但投资者日益担忧,额外的财政刺激可能加剧通胀压力,并进一步削弱日本的财政状况。

But investors have become increasingly concerned that additional fiscal stimulus could add to inflationary pressures and further weaken Japan's fiscal position.

这些担忧已反映在债券市场。9月底,受美国与伊朗冲突引发的油价上涨所带动的通胀担忧影响,抛售潮加速,基准10年期日本政府债券收益率升至3.115%的三十年高位。债券价格通常与收益率呈反向变动。

Those concerns have been reflected in the bond market. In late September, the yield on benchmark 10-year Japanese government bonds rose to a three-decade high of 3.115% as a sell-off accelerated amid inflation concerns triggered by higher oil prices related to the U.S. war with Iran. Bond prices generally move inversely to yields.

高市还因日元问题面临来自华盛顿的压力。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特多次对日元持续疲软表示担忧,并敦促东京避免释放可能持续压低日元的再通胀信号。

Takaichi is also facing pressure from Washington over the yen. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has repeatedly voiced concerns about the currency's persistent weakness and urged Tokyo to avoid reflationary messages that could keep it under pressure.

上个月,贝森特用赌场比喻,称“现在我是庄家”,以此向押注日元贬值的货币交易员发出挑战。

Last month, Bessent challenged currency traders betting against the yen, saying "I am the house now," using a casino metaphor.

财务大臣片山沙月上周告诉《日经新闻》,政府一致认为日本的再通胀政策已经结束,这呼应了贝森特的言论。

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told Nikkei last week that the government was united in its view that Japan's reflationary policy was over, echoing Bessent's comments.

但野村综合研究所执行经济学家木内登英在对高市早苗演讲草案(该草案被广泛报道)的分析中表示,首相的言论不构成财政政策的根本性转变,且仅凭这些言论不太可能消除市场担忧。

But Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute, said in an analysis of a widely reported draft of Takaichi's speech that the prime minister's comments do not amount to a fundamental shift in fiscal policy and were unlikely on their own to dispel market concerns.

木内表示,虽然演讲中“穿插了旨在安抚市场、维持市场信心的言论”,但“这并不一定意味着政策会真正因顾及金融市场而进行调整。”他警告称,持续的扩张性财政和货币政策可能进一步施加下行压力于日元和日本国债价格,加剧通胀并推高长期利率,可能对经济产生负面影响。

While the speech was "peppered with remarks aimed at reassuring markets and maintaining market confidence," Kiuchi said, "this does not necessarily mean that policy will actually be adjusted out of consideration for financial markets." He warned that continued expansionary fiscal and monetary policies could put further downward pressure on the yen and Japanese government bond prices, exacerbating inflation and pushing long-term interest rates higher, with potentially negative consequences for the economy.