安德烈亚·帕拉夏诺报道——北约最高军事指挥官正在制定一项战略，力求在俄罗斯对其东翼发动攻击时迅速取胜，尤其侧重于将无人机和人工智能等新型防御技术融入传统力量。
NATO’s top military commander is working on a strategy for achieving a quick victory against a Russian attack on its eastern flank, with a particular focus on integrating new defense technologies like drones and AI into traditional power.
这项名为“胜利理论”的文件——彭博社已看到其非机密版本——将由欧洲盟军最高司令阿莱克修斯·格林凯维奇将军于10月12日在波兰提交。当前北约与俄罗斯之间的紧张关系不断加剧。
The document, called “Theory of Victory,” which Bloomberg has seen in an unclassified form, will be presented by Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Alexus Grynkewich, in Poland on Oct. 12 amid heightened tensions between NATO and Russia.
据熟悉此事的高级官员和外交官称，该文件旨在阐明北约将如何应对可能对其领土的入侵。近期有大量报道称莫斯科正在考虑此类行动。
It is meant to clarify how the alliance would handle a possible incursion into NATO territory, according to senior officials and diplomats familiar with the matter. There have been numerous recent reports that Moscow is considering such action.
北约秘书长马克·吕特近日表示，没有迹象表明俄罗斯正在准备对北约发动常规攻击，但欧洲应为持久的混合攻击做好准备。
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said recently that there were no indications that Russia was preparing for a conventional attack on the alliance but that Europe should be prepared for enduring hybrid attacks.
格林凯维奇的发言人马丁·奥唐奈上校拒绝讨论该计划的细节，但强调北约“纯粹是防御性的”。
Grynkewich spokesman Colonel Martin O’Donnell declined to discuss details of the plan, but emphasized that the alliance was “purely defensive.”
“欧洲盟军最高司令的胜利理论很简单：保持北约的优势，”奥唐奈说。“鉴于动荡而复杂的全球安全环境，我们现在就需要创造条件来威慑侵略，并在必要时于遭受攻击时赢得胜利。”尽管北约作战原则的大致框架已为人所知，但公开谈论这些内容实属罕见。该倡议旨在让公众对北约的战备状态感到放心，同时更具体地展示国防开支增加背后的实质内容。
“The Supreme Allied Commander Europe’s theory of victory is simple: maintain NATO’s advantage,” O’Donnell said. “Given the unsettled and complex global security environment, we need to set conditions now to deter aggression and, if necessary, win if attacked,” Although the broad strokes of NATO’s warfighting principles are known, open communication about them is rare. The initiative is meant to reassure the public about NATO’s readiness while showing a more concrete picture of what is behind the heightened defense spending.
据这些要求匿名讨论私下事务的人士称，该文件还旨在向盟友说明北约将如何把传统武器与自2022年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰以来涌现的新能力相结合，并敦促加大国防投资和加强备战。
The document is also meant to illustrate to allies how NATO would integrate traditional weapons with the new capabilities that have emerged since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and to urge more defense investment and better preparations, the people said, asking for anonymity to discuss private matters.
该战略强调北约的防御性质，主张避免无意中的挑衅，同时明确指出，作为威慑的一部分，需要集体应对混合威胁——即低于冲突门槛的侵略性行动。战略文件称，通过展示准备就绪的状态，北约希望让对手得出结论：其无法获胜。
The strategy insists on the defensive nature of NATO and on avoiding involuntary provocations, while explicitly mentioning the need to collectively counter hybrid threats — aggressive actions below the threshold of a conflict — as part of deterrence. By demonstrating readiness, NATO wants the enemy to conclude that it cannot win, the strategy says.
但如果北约遭到攻击，它将结合地面部队及其他资源，依托“北约东部翼威慑倡议”来阻止入侵。这一构想依赖低成本无人机、人员配备极少的作战系统以及人工智能辅助的目标锁定。在获得行动自由后，北约将寻求摧毁敌方指挥控制系统，以迅速且压倒性地击败俄罗斯军队。
But if NATO were attacked, it would block an incursion with a mix of land forces and other assets from NATO’s Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative, a concept relying on low-cost drones, minimally crewed systems and AI-enabled targeting. After gaining freedom of maneuver, it would seek to destroy enemy command and control with the goal of defeating Russian forces quickly and overwhelmingly.
北约盟友，尤其是欧洲国家，已大幅增加了国防开支，但围绕如何在传统武器（如坦克）与在乌克兰冲突中崭露头角的新兴技术之间进行优先分配，紧张局势也开始显现。
NATO allies, especially in Europe, have massively ramped up defense spending, with tensions emerging about how to prioritize between traditional weapons such as tanks, and alternative technology that has come to the forefront in the Ukraine conflict.
今年夏天，美国向北约盟友发送了一份调查问卷，旨在评估各盟友的国防开支以及对唐纳德·特朗普总统政策的支持情况，为计划削减用于保卫欧洲的美国军事资产提供决策依据。
This summer, the US sent a questionnaire to NATO allies gauging their defense spending and support for President Donald Trump’s policies to inform decisionmaking on planned cuts of US military assets committed to defending Europe.
作为该调查问卷的一部分，美国还询问各盟友是否还有更多部队可用于格里尼克（Grynkewich）的防御计划。
As part of this questionnaire, the US asked whether allies had any more forces to commit to NATO for Grynkewich’s defense plans.