编者伊朗领导人在整个夏季可以说把自己的牌打过了头；即便双方已就重开霍尔木兹海峡签署谅解备忘录，他们仍袭击油轮。如果美国希望结束波斯湾冲突，就应警惕自身这种傲慢情绪。
By The Editors Iranian leaders arguably overplayed their hand over the summer, attacking oil tankers even afterg a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If the US hopes to end the conflict in the Persian Gulf, it should be wary of its own bout of hubris.
伊朗之所以采取行动，是因为在美国要求过往海峡的船只紧靠阿曼海岸航行、不要接受伊朗监管后，伊朗担心失去筹码。作为回应，美国通过封锁石油出口和加强制裁扼住了伊朗经济，同时开始为其他海湾国家的航运开辟安全通道。尽管代价高昂，这一努力似乎正在见效：据摩根大通和高盛集团的数据，原油运输量（包括使用绕行路线的运输量）已反弹至接近战前水平。
Iran acted because it feared losing leverage after the US pressed ships traversing the strait to hug the Oman coast rather than submit to Iranian oversight. In response, the US has strangled the Iranian economy by blocking oil exports and beefing up sanctions, even as it’s begun clearing a safe channel for shipping from other Gulf countries. While costly, the effort appears to be yielding results: According to JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., shipments of crude oil (including those using bypass routes) have rebounded to near pre-war levels.
这或许可以解释，为什么伊朗谈判代表现在正寻求尽快重新执行6月达成的备忘录。根据备忘录，美国承诺解冻伊朗资产并允许其出口石油，以换取重开海峡和恢复核谈判。白宫对此表示抗拒，据报道正要求伊朗就核计划作出更具体的承诺，然后才会释放任何资金。随着有关美国可能在中期选举后恢复轰炸的猜测日益甚嚣尘上，第三个航母战斗群和数千名增派部队正开赴该地区。
That likely explains why Iranian negotiators are now seeking an accelerated return to the June memorandum, in which the US promised to unfreeze Iranian assets and allow oil exports in exchange for reopening the strait and a return to nuclear talks. The White House is resisting, reportedly seeking more concrete promises on the nuclear program before releasing any funds. A third carrier group and thousands more troops are heading to the region as speculation grows that the US may resume bombing after the midterm elections.
双方互不信任对方会履行承诺，这种僵局可以理解。伊朗认为，美国此前已经承诺给予相关好处，因此没有理由再作出新的让步。与此同时，美国政府因在最初达成的停火协议中让步过多而遭到严厉批评；在经历数月能源成本飙升以及又有6名军人死亡之后，如果美国只是回到原有协议，必将再次遭到猛烈抨击。
The standoff is understandable. Neither side trusts the other to live up to its commitments. Iran sees little reason to offer new concessions for benefits the US has already promised. Meanwhile, the administration was heavily criticized for giving away too much in the original ceasefire agreement and would be blasted anew for simply returning to it, after enduring months of spiking energy costs and the deaths of another six service members.
然而，白宫官员应切记，维持现状可能远不如表面看上去那样可持续。战争每拖一周，美国的弹药库存就会进一步减少，全球各地的战备状态也会受损，五角大楼应对其他紧迫挑战的精力则会被分散。尽管石油供应已经开始恢复，重新爆发的战争担忧仍使能源价格居高不下。而保障石油运输的复杂海上行动不可能无限期持续下去。
White House officials should remember, however, that the status quo may be less sustainable than it looks. Every week that the war drags on further erodes US munitions stockpiles, damages readiness around the globe and distracts from the Pentagon’s other pressing challenges. Fears of a return to fighting have kept energy prices high even as oil flows have begun to recover. And the complex naval operation enabling those flows can’t continue indefinitely.
如今主导德黑兰政权的强硬派认为，他们正在进行一场关乎生存的斗争，而且已经充分表明，他们对普通伊朗人的苦难几乎毫不在意。他们更可能通过袭击海湾地区石油设施来升级冲突，而不是屈从于经济压力。美国重新发动大规模轰炸同样可能引发更广泛的冲突，导致价格飙升，并对该地区能源基础设施造成长期破坏，更不用说还会带来更多美国人员伤亡。
The hard-liners who now dominate the Tehran regime believe they’re engaged in an existential struggle and have amply proven how little they care for the suffering of ordinary Iranians. They’re more likely to escalate by striking Gulf oil facilities than cave to economic pressure. A renewed US bombing campaign similarly risks a wider conflagration that could see spiraling prices and long-term damage to the region’s energy infrastructure, not to mention additional US casualties.
因此，美国明智之举是争取在新的停火协议中取得进展，而不是接受白宫有时所要求的“无条件投降”。任何关于重新开放海峡的安排都应符合国际法，不留任何解释空间；还应为建立一个由联合国国际 Maritime Organization 支持、涵盖波斯湾所有国家而非仅包括伊朗和阿曼的治理机构奠定基础。在核问题上，伊朗至少应允许国际原子能机构 inspectors 重新进入伊朗，评估其核计划以及高浓缩铀库存的状况。
The US would thus be wise to aim for improvements in a new ceasefire agreement, not the “unconditional surrender” the White House has at times demanded. Any arrangement for reopening the strait should comport with international law and leave no room for interpretation; it should also lay the groundwork for a governing authority backed by the UN’s International Maritime Organization that includes all Persian Gulf nations, not just Iran and Oman. On the nuclear front, Iran should at minimum let International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back into the country to assess the state of its program and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
伊朗还应明白，在更长期的谈判仍在进行之际，任何重建已毁核设施或恢复铀浓缩的企图都将遭到军事回应。
It should also understand that any attempt to rebuild destroyed nuclear facilities or resume enrichment while longer-term talks are ongoing would be met with a military response.
美国方面则需要提供经济激励，以换取伊朗遵守协议，但全面解除制裁应等到达成持久的核协议之后。这样付出的政治代价，将低于继续这场判断失误的战争。
For its part, the US will need to provide financial incentives for compliance, although full sanctions relief should await a lasting nuclear pact. The political price will be less costly than continuing this ill-advised war.
请联系负责彭博观点社论的高级编辑：蒂莫西·L。奥布莱恩在tlobrien@bloomberg.net
To contact the senior editor responsible for Bloomberg Opinion’s editorials: Timothy L. O'Brien at tlobrien@bloomberg.net