圣保罗/巴西利亚——周一，巴西资产市场出现上涨。此前，右翼参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在周日总统选举第一轮投票中表现优于民意调查，以第一名的成绩胜出。巴西Bovespa基准股指上涨超过9%，该国货币兑美元也走强。
SAO PAULO/BRASILIA -- Brazilian assets rallied on Monday after right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro outperformed opinion polls to finish first in the first round of Sunday's presidential election, with the Bovespa benchmark stock index gaining more than 9% and the country's currency strengthening against the U.S. dollar.
前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗的长子获得了47%的选票，他将在10月25日的第二轮选举中对阵获得约45%选票的左翼现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦。此前民意调查显示，卢拉在第一轮投票中将以大约三个百分点的优势领先。
The eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro won 47% of the votes cast and will face leftist incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who secured about 45%, in a runoff on Oct. 25. Polls had forecast Lula would lead the first round of voting by around three percentage points.
周一上午，投资者对博索纳罗的强劲表现及其在国会盟友的得票增长表示欢迎。分析人士称，一个更友好的立法机构将有助于他（若当选）推动亲市场议程，包括收紧公共支出、推行私有化和减税。
Investors cheered on Monday morning as Bolsonaro's strong showing was matched by gains for his allies in Congress. Analysts say a friendlier legislature would make it easier for him, if elected, to push through a pro-market agenda of tighter public spending, privatizations and tax cuts.
“巴西渴望变革，”弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在周日晚间表示，并宣告“（卢拉的）工人党时代终结”。零售商Magazine Luiza、证券交易所运营商B3、贷款机构BTG Pactual、住宅建筑商Cyrela以及集团企业Cosan的股价均上涨超过20%，成为涨幅最大的股票之一。另一方面，纸浆制造商Suzano的股价则下跌了8.5%。
"Brazil wants change," Flavio Bolsonaro said on Sunday evening, heralding the "end of the era of (Lula's) Workers' Party." Shares in retailer Magazine Luiza, stock exchange operator B3, lender BTG Pactual, homebuilder Cyrela and conglomerate Cosan jumped more than 20% each, putting them among the top gainers. Pulpmaker Suzano, on the other hand, fell as much as 8.5%.
巴西雷亚尔在早盘交易中兑美元升值超过4%，汇率从此前约5.22降至5.00以下，符合分析师预测，也与四年前该货币的表现相似。当时，时任总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗在第一轮投票中击败了卢拉，且表现优于预期。
Brazil's real currency strengthened more than 4% against the U.S. dollar in early trading, moving below 5.00 per greenback, from around 5.22 previously, in line with analyst forecasts and with the currency's performance four years ago when then-President Jair Bolsonaro did better than expected in the first-round vote against Lula.
然而，雅伊尔·博索纳罗在那次选举的第二轮中最终输给了卢拉，随后因试图发动政变推翻选举结果而被定罪。这位前总统被判处约27年监禁，目前处于软禁状态。
Jair Bolsonaro went on to lose to Lula in the second round of that election and was subsequently convicted of trying to carry out a coup to overturn the result. The former president was sentenced to about 27 years in prison and is currently under house arrest.
巴西发行的国际债券周一同样走强，而更广泛的固定收益市场则震荡不安。Tradeweb数据显示，2056年到期债券的买价上涨1.4美分，至每美元93.5美分。
Brazil's international debt also rallied on Monday, while broader fixed-income markets were jittery. The 2056 bond was up 1.4 cents on the dollar to bid at 93.5 cents, Tradeweb data showed.
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗向担忧巴西日益严峻的财政压力的投资者推介自己，称他是父亲“更加稳健”的版本。
Flavio Bolsonaro has pitched himself as a "more centered" version of his father to investors concerned about Brazil's burgeoning fiscal pressures.
沃托贝尔投资组合经理蒂埃里·拉罗兹说：“这位参议员最终是否会在财政上比卢拉在第四个非连续总统任期内表现得更负责任，目前仍有待观察。不过，市场很可能选择暂且相信他。”
"It remains to be seen whether the senator would ultimately prove more fiscally responsible than Lula would be in a fourth non-consecutive presidential term. However, markets are likely to give him the benefit of the doubt," said Thierry Larose, portfolio manager at Vontobel.
分析师还预计，雷亚尔将延续升值趋势，走强至2027年。法国兴业银行预测，到2026年底，雷亚尔将升至5.10，并有望在2027年上半年跌破5.00。摩根士丹利预计，明年第一季度雷亚尔可能升破4.90，并向4.50靠拢。
Analysts also expect the real to continue strengthening into 2027. Societe Generale forecast that it will firm to 5.10 by end-2026, with scope to move below 5.00 in the first half of 2027. Morgan Stanley forecast the real could strengthen past 4.90 and toward 4.50 in the first quarter of next year.
AGF Investments平台投资分析师佩德罗·加尔迪说：“市场希望看到变化，希望推动改革；它不希望出现高额公共赤字。在现任政府执政期间，这一切还将持续。”
"The market wants change, it wants reform; it doesn't want a high public deficit; with the current government, all of this will continue," said Pedro Galdi, investment analyst at the AGF Investments platform.
萨比奥 managing partner 布莱恩·哈里斯表示，弗拉维奥·博索纳罗的强劲表现近期可能提振市场信心。
Bolsonaro's strong showing is likely to boost market confidence in the near term, said Bryan Harris, a managing partner at Sabio.
哈里斯说：“市场将关注博索纳罗是否释放出明确信号，表明他决心认真处理巴西面临的问题。”
"The market will be looking for clear signals from Bolsonaro that he is serious about tackling the country's problems," Harris said.
在周日的投票前夕，多数此前大多低估弗拉维奥·博索纳罗支持势力的民间机构民调显示，这位45岁的参议员与卢拉在第二轮投票中的支持率基本持平，而卢拉将在本月晚些时候年满81岁。
Heading into Sunday's vote, most private polls, which largely underestimated Flavio Bolsonaro's strength, had shown the 45-year-old senator and Lula, who will turn 81 later this month, about even in a runoff vote.
卢拉在圣保罗一家酒店对人群表示，他原本确信自己会在选举第一轮中获胜。
Addressing a crowd at a hotel in Sao Paulo, Lula said he had been convinced he would win the election in the first round.
他说：“从明天开始，我们将启动新的竞选活动。”他承诺将向选民展示自己担任总统期间取得的成就。
"Starting tomorrow, we begin a new campaign," he said, promising to show voters what he had accomplished as president.