佛罗里达州奥兰多，10月5日：由于盈利乐观和油价下跌抵消了债券收益率上涨，纳斯达克指数周一飙升至新高。当天最大的变动是巴西资产，右翼候选人弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗（Flavio Bolsonaro）在总统选举第一轮投票中表现强劲，这表明他是赢得三周内第二轮决定性一轮的有力热门人选。
ORLANDO, Florida, Oct 5 : The Nasdaq surged to a fresh high on Monday, as earnings optimism and lower oil prices offset rising bond yields. The biggest moves of the day were in Brazilian assets, which logged historic gains after right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro's strong showing in the first round of voting in the presidential election suggests he is a strong favorite to win the second and decisive round in three weeks.
在今天的专栏中，我探讨了纽约证券交易所的交易员和金融电视主播何时应该开始订购“标准普尔10，000点”上限。这一里程碑距离当前水平仅30%，如果第三季度盈利接近第二季度一样强劲，那么感觉就不会太遥远了。今日关键读物·西班牙桑切斯在住房抗议活动带来罕见提振后押注提前选举·巴西国会右翼浪潮在总统决选前提振博尔索纳罗阵营·如果美国债券收益率持续上升，华盛顿下一步将做什么？
In my column today, I look at when traders and financial TV anchors on the NYSE floor should start ordering their "S&P 10,000" caps. That milestone is only 30 per cent from current levels, and if Q3 earnings are anywhere near as strong as Q2, it suddenly won't feel too far away at all. Today's Key Reads • Spain's Sanchez gambles on snap election after housing protests give rare boost • Right-wing wave in Brazil's Congress boosts Bolsonaro camp ahead of presidential runoff • What will Washington do next if US bond yields keep rising?
·美国进入中期选举，充分就业的形式不那么活跃欧盟如果不迅速改革，就有可能成为世界病夫：迈克·皮科克·今天的主要市场走势股票：巴西+8%，本世纪除GFC和大流行病外的最大涨幅。纳斯达克上涨1%，创下新高，标准普尔500指数上涨0.7%，道指上涨0.2%，标准普尔500指数中除房地产外的所有板块都上涨。通信服务、材料上涨1.2%。
• US goes into midterm elections with a less dynamic form of full employment • EU risks becoming sick man of the world if it doesn’t reform quickly: Mike Peacock • Today's Key Market Moves STOCKS: Brazil +8 per cent, biggest rise this century outside GFC and pandemic. Nasdaq +1 per cent to new high, S&P 500 +0.7 per cent, Dow +0.2 perEvery sector on the S&P 500 rises except real estate. Comms services, materials +1.2 per cent.
英伟达上涨2%，创下历史新高，市值接近6万亿美元。外汇：巴西雷亚尔上涨4%，4年来最大涨幅。欧元下跌0.3%，至17个月低点。美元指数创18个月新高。债券：法国/德国利差收窄5个基点。美国国债收益率上升，10年和30年最高收于逾2%，石油收益率上升2%，黄金收益率几乎没有变化，高于4,100美元/盎司。今日谈话要点：巴西脚下的隆隆声是巴西政治地震的第一次震动。
Nvidia +2 per cent to new record high, market cap closing in on $6 trillion.FX: Brazilian real +4 per cent, biggest rise in 4 years. Euro -0.3 per cent to 17-month low. Dollar index hits 18-month high.BONDS: French/German spread narrows 5 bps. US yields rise, 10-year and 30-year highest closes in over twoOil -2 per cent, gold little-changed above $4,100/oz. Today's Talking Points: Brazil That rumbling you feel beneath your feet is the first tremors of what could be a political earthquake in Brazil.
右翼候选人弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗（Flavio Bolsonaro）、前极右翼总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗（Jair Bolsonaro）的儿子，在周日总统选举的第一轮投票中表现好于预期，至少从金融市场的角度来看，结论是明确的--周一巴西资产的飙升说明了一切。
Right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former hard-right President Jair Bolsonaro, did much better than expected in the first round of voting in Sunday's presidential election, and from a financial markets viewpoint at least, the verdict is clear — the sizzling rally in Brazilian assets on Monday says it all.
现任左翼元老路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦（Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva）将连续第四个任期，他正在考虑让副总统杰拉尔多·阿尔克明（Geraldo Alckmin）担任他的下一任财政部长，以增强他的财政信誉并赢得中间派选民的支持。但这可能太少太晚了--在线投注市场指出，博尔索纳罗在第二轮投票中获胜的可能性为83%。
Incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the left-wing veteran going for his fourth non-consecutive term, is considering tapping Vice President Geraldo Alckmin to be his next finance minister if re-elected, in a bid to bolster his fiscal credibility and win over centrist voters. But it may be too little too late — online betting markets are pointing to an 83 per cent likelihood that Bolsonaro wins in the second round of voting.
欧洲上周，法国总理佩德罗·桑切斯（Pedro Sanchez）在全国范围内的住房抗议活动后呼吁提前举行选举，投资者可以将西班牙列入欧洲政治风险观察名单。对于桑切斯来说，这是一场高风险的赌博，他的社会党在几乎所有民意调查中都落后。在极右翼在该地区取得前所未有的进展之际，失败将意味着欧洲仅存的左翼政府之一的终结。
Europe To France, Italy and Germany last week, investors can add Spain to their European political risk watch-list, after Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called a snap election following nationwide protests over housing. It's a high-stakes gamble for Sanchez, whose Socialist Party trails in nearly every opinion poll. Defeat would spell the end of one of Europe's last remaining left-leaning governments at a time when the far right is making unprecedented gains across the region.
西班牙的政治动荡与其他国家的财政担忧无关--西班牙是欧元区增长最快的经济体之一，赤字约占GDP的2- 2.5%，收益率利差相对受到控制。尽管如此，市场仍然紧张--西班牙收益率上涨5个基点，欧元跌至17个月新低1.12美元左右。
Spain's political turmoil isn't tied to fiscal concerns like other countries — Spain is one of the fastest-growing economies in the euro zone, its deficit is around 2-2.5 per cent of GDP, and yield spreads are under relative control. Still, markets are twitchy — Spanish yields rose 5 bps and the euro slumped to a fresh 17-month low around $1.12.
美元在G10外汇中，不同程度地席卷欧洲、英国和日本的政治和债券市场不确定性加深的最大受益者是美元。当然，美国也没有政治、债务或债券市场问题可供寻求。但借用外汇市场的一句老话，美元再次被证明是洗衣房里最干净的脏衬衫。
Dollar In G10 FX, the big beneficiary of deepening political and bond market uncertainty sweeping, to varying degrees, across Europe, the UK and Japan is the dollar. The US doesn't have its political, debt or bond market troubles to seek either, of course. But to coin an old FX market adage, the greenback is once again proving to be the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry.
这并不是特朗普总统或财政部长斯科特·贝森特真正想要的。他们更喜欢美元贬值，在全球市场上更具竞争力，这从理论上来说将有助于提振美国出口并缩小贸易逆差，特朗普称贸易逆差是美国被世界其他国家“敲诈”的结果。另一方面，美元走强有助于抑制进口价格压力和收紧货币政策的必要性。现在这对特朗普来说就是音乐。明天会有什么影响市场？
This isn't what President Trump or Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent really want. They would prefer a weaker dollar that is more competitive in the global marketplace, which would theoretically help boost US exports and narrow the trade deficit that Trump says is a result of America being "ripped off" by the rest of the world. On the other hand, a stronger dollar helps suppress imported price pressures and the need for tighter monetary policy. Now that's music to Trump's ears. What could move markets tomorrow?
- 计划发表讲话的美联储官员包括纽约联储的约翰·威廉姆斯、达拉斯联储的洛里·洛根和负责监督的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼想要在每个工作日早上在收件箱中收到Trading Day吗？这里.它们并不反映路透社新闻的观点，根据信任原则，路透社新闻致力于诚信、独立和免受偏见。
• US Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak include New York Fed's John Williams, Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan, and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? here. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.