据两家华尔街大型银行称，巴西股市的前景正日益明朗。周日举行的巴西总统选举中，右翼候选人弗拉维奥·博索纳罗的得票率超过了现任总统卢拉。此后，摩根大通与德意志银行的策略师们均将巴西股市评级上调至“超配”。由于两位候选人均未获得超过50%的选票，第二轮投票将于10月25日举行。作为前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗之子，弗拉维奥·博索纳罗被众多市场人士视为更受市场青睐的候选人，他承诺将减税并控制政府开支。
The outlook for Brazilian stocks is getting brighter, according to two major Wall Street banks. Strategists at JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank upgraded Brazil to overweight after right-wing presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro outpaced incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva in an election held Sunday. Neither candidate received more than 50% of the vote, so a runoff will take place Oct. 25. Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is seen by many as the more market-friendly alternative. He has pledged to lower taxes and curb government spending. Investors quickly cheered the first-round results. The Bovespa index , Brazil's domestic stock market index, surged 7.7% on Monday — its biggest one-day gain since March 24, 2020. Back then, it soared 9.7%.
投资者迅速对首轮选举结果作出积极反应：周一，巴西国内股指博维斯帕指数大涨7.7%，创下2020年3月24日以来的单日最大涨幅；当日该指数的最高涨幅曾达9.7%。iShares MSCI巴西交易所交易基金（EWZ）当日也上涨12.5%，创下自2020年3月17日上涨13%以来的最佳单日表现。摩根大通与德意志银行均认为，巴西股市未来仍有上涨空间。
The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) raced 12.5% higher on the day, marking is best daily performance since a 13% jump on March 17, 2020. JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank think there's more upside ahead. EWZ YTD mountain EWZ year to date "With the results from the first round of the Brazilian elections, it is hard to ignore the impact on markets," JPMorgan strategist Emy Shayo Cherman wrote. "This upside potential is better than what any other LatAm market can offer."
摩根大通策略师艾米·沙约·切尔曼写道：“巴西首轮选举结果对市场的影响显而易见，其上涨潜力也远超其他拉美国家。”她指出，巴西雷亚尔汇率走强有望推动利率更快下调；此外，市场对更宽松财政政策的预期也将推动估值提升。德意志银行的尼古拉伊·利普曼则指出，选举前巴西股票在投资组合中的配置比例极低，这为后续上涨奠定了基础。
Cherman pointed to a stronger Brazilian real as a driver, which "could pave the way for more and faster [rate] cuts." She added that the market "re-rating on the possibility of a more fiscally friendly macro policy is material." Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank's Nikolaj Lippmann noted that Brazilian stocks were deeply under-owned heading into the election, setting them up for more gains.
他在报告中称：“创纪录的高利率水平导致巴西投资者纷纷远离股市，目前本国股票配置比例仅为约5%，略高于历史最低值4.6%，而历史平均水平为8.5%，峰值更是达到15%。此次选举为巴西经济指明了新方向：财政状况有望改善，国内经济增速或有所放缓，进而吸引更多投资流入。”
"Brazilian investors have been crowded out of equities by record-high rates, with allocations to local equities now at ~5%—just above the all-time low of 4.6%, versus an 8.5% historical average and 15% peak," Lippmann said in a note. "Elections open optionality for a new road: fiscal consolidation and a domestic slowdown that ultimately crowd in investment.
这一转型过程可能需要数年时间，但其潜力巨大。对于美国投资者而言，有多种途径可以涉足巴西市场。其中最为简便的方式便是通过EWZ等交易所交易基金。受周一股市上涨带动，该基金今年以来已累计上涨35%。此外，多家巴西企业也在美国上市，包括：伊塔乌联合银行、安贝夫、布拉德斯科银行、巴西国家石油公司、Nu Holdings以及巴西航空工业公司。
The transition will likely take years, but the potential is significant." For U.S. investors, there are several ways they can gain exposure to the Brazilian market. One of the easiest ones is through ETFs such as the EWZ. The fund is up 35% year to date following Monday's rally. Several Brazilian companies also trade in the U.S., including: Itau Unibanco , Ambev , Banco Bradesco , Petrobras , Nu Holdings and Embraer .
摩根大通分析师尤里·费尔南德斯将布拉德斯科银行的评级上调至“增持”。他在致客户的报告中写道：“虽然我们对近期经营环境仍持谨慎态度，但我们认为布拉德斯科银行具备更强劲的反弹潜力；目前其估值水平及市场情绪已充分反映了短期内的诸多挑战。”
JPMorgan analyst Yuri Fernandes upgraded Banco Bradesco to overweight. "While we remain cautious on the near-term operating backdrop, we believe Bradesco offers a more compelling rebound setup from here, with valuation and sentiment already discounting a significant portion of near-term challenges," Fernandes wrote to clients.