在这个自1932年以来就未选出过民主党籍参议员的州，共和党籍参议员罗杰·马歇尔如今突然发现自己面临着一场激烈的竞选角逐——而距离2026年中期选举仅剩数周时间。
In a state that hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1932, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall suddenly finds himself in a competitive race with weeks to go until the 2026 midterm elections.
持续高企的通货膨胀、白宫贸易政策引发的负面效应，再加上来自民主党方面的强劲对手——大型教会牧师亚当·汉密尔顿，这些因素共同促使原本铁定属于共和党阵营的堪萨斯州意外变成了参议院选战的焦点地区。
Stubborn inflation, blowback from White House trade policies, and a formidable Democratic challenger in megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton have combined to turn ruby-red Kansas into an unexpected Senate battleground.
这场日益胶着的竞选态势迫使马歇尔不得不像众多处境艰难的共和党人一样艰难权衡：既要在那些可能引发国内选民反感的政策上与总统唐纳德·特朗普保持距离，又绝不能疏远自己的基本盘。
The tightening contest has forced Marshall into a balancing act confronting a growing number of vulnerable Republicans: creating space from President Donald Trump on issues that pose risks at home without alienating his base.
“当堪萨斯州的现任共和党参议员开始刻意与白宫领导人划清界限时，对整个共和党而言这绝对是个危险信号，”沃什伯恩大学的政治学家鲍勃·贝蒂说道，“如今选民正饱受经济压力之苦，对华盛顿的忠诚反倒成了一种负担。”9月23日，《库克政治报告》将该选区的预测结果从“共和党胜算极大”调整为“共和党略占优势”。
"When a sitting Republican senator in Kansas starts running away from their leader in the White House, the five-alarm bell is ringing for the entire party," said Bob Beatty, a political scientist at Washburn University. "Loyalty to Washington is becoming a liability when voters are feeling the squeeze at home." The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter shifted the race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican" on Sept. 23.
9月份，埃默森学院与Nexstar媒体集团对750名堪萨斯州潜在选民开展的民调显示，汉密尔顿获得了45%的支持率，马歇尔则获得43%，这一差距完全在3.6%的误差范围之内，双方势均力敌。同一项民调还显示，特朗普在堪萨斯州的支持率为40%，53%的受访者对其持反对态度；近半数潜在选民将经济问题列为最关心的议题。
A September Emerson College/Nexstar survey of 750 Kansas likely voters put Hamilton at 45% and Marshall at 43%, a dead heat within the poll's 3.6% margin of error. In the same poll, Trump's approval in Kansas stood at 40%, with 53% disapproving and nearly half of likely voters naming the economy their top issue.
各全国性共和党组织也注意到了这一变化。如今，多个外部团体正斥资数百万美元在堪萨斯州展开宣传，试图守住这个原本被视为绝对安全的共和党参议院席位。这场选战的结果将直接决定共和党在参议院能否维持多数席位。
National Republican groups have taken note. Outside groups are now pouring millions into Kansas to defend the seat that once sat safely outside the Senate battlefield. At stake is the GOP's Senate majority.
经济压力之下，马歇尔多年来一直是特朗普的坚定盟友。尽管2024年特朗普在堪萨斯州赢得了16个百分点的优势，但这位参议员近期却表现出有意与特朗普保持距离的倾向。
Economic squeeze Marshall has been a stalwart Trump ally for years. Though Trump carried Kansas by 16 points in 2024, the senator has recently shown a willingness to distance himself.
9月份，特朗普威胁要禁止美国销售加拿大制造商庞巴迪生产的飞机，这一举措可能令该公司在威奇托市约1500个工作岗位的未来前景充满变数。虽然马歇尔对引发这一威胁的贸易争端并未表现出太多反对态度，但他坚称自己已“在白宫内部”为当地航空业就业问题据理力争。与此同时，农民们正面临双重压力：贸易争端与报复性关税重创了谷物和大豆市场，而伊朗局势又导致燃料成本大幅上涨。
In September, Trump threatened to ban U.S. sales of aircraft built by Canadian manufacturer Bombardier, potentially putting the future of many of the company's roughly 1,500 Wichita-based jobs in limbo. While Marshall offered little resistance to the broader trade dispute that spurred the threat, he insisted he had taken the fight for local aerospace jobs "inside the Oval Office." Meanwhile, farmers are being squeezed from both ends. Trade disputes and retaliatory tariffs have weighed on grain and soybean markets just as the Iran war has driven up fuel costs.
据美国汽车协会统计，在本轮收获季的30天里，柴油价格——这种对联合收割机、拖拉机及运输卡车至关重要的燃料——每加仑涨幅接近1美元。
Diesel — essential for combines, tractors and transport trucks — jumped nearly a dollar a gallon during one 30-day stretch this harvest season, according to AAA.
牧场主们也未能幸免。为抑制牛肉价格，特朗普于8月份决定对新增30万吨的瘦牛肉碎进口产品减免关税。
Ranchers have been hit, too. In a bid to tamp down ground beef prices, Trump in August moved to lower tariffs on an additional 300,000 metric tons of imports for lean beef trimmings.
“华盛顿的干预措施弊大于利，”堪萨斯州畜牧业协会首席执行官马特·蒂加登说道，“我们的许多会员其实更希望政策制定者让市场自行调节。”该协会曾在2016年众议院选举及2020年参议院竞选中支持马歇尔，但今年却决定既不支持马歇尔也不支持汉密尔顿。
"The interference in Washington is causing more harm than good," said Matt Teagarden, chief executive of the Kansas Livestock Association. "Many of our members would prefer policymakers to let the market work." The association endorsed Marshall in both his 2016 House race and his 2020 Senate campaign. This year, it has declined to endorse either Marshall or Hamilton.
另一方面，马歇尔对特朗普政府的多项政策也采取了适度抵制态度：他呼吁对燃料成本实施“针对性救济措施”，并认为政府在应对食品价格问题上采取了错误策略。
Marshall, meanwhile, has offered calibrated pushback against several Trump administration policies, calling for "targeted relief" on fuel costs and arguing the administration took the wrong approach to food prices.
移民执法行动则进一步增加了马歇尔的平衡难度。美国移民与海关执法局的突击搜查行动频繁出现在堪萨斯州西南部地区——那里分布着全美规模最大的多家肉类加工厂与饲养场，此举引发了当地移民工人的恐慌情绪。
Immigration enforcement further complicated Marshall's balancing act. Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids have swept across southwestern Kansas, home to some of the nation's largest meatpacking plants and feedlots, stoking fear among immigrant workers.
“工人们都待在家里，导致工厂不得不缩短班次、减缓生产线速度，甚至干脆取消班次，”蒂加登对CNBC说道。“生产计划的中断使得饲养场不得不延长牛只的饲养时间，这进一步推高了成本——而整个行业本就面临劳动力短缺的困境。”
"Workers stayed home, causing plants to shorten shifts, slow production lines or cancel shifts altogether," Teagarden told CNBC. "Canceled processing left feedlots holding cattle longer, driving up costs in an industry already facing labor shortages."
马歇尔则以谨慎克制的语气予以回应：“当美国移民及海关执法局在堪萨斯州开展行动时，必须与当地执法部门协调配合，”他在9月23日发在X平台上的帖子中写道，“我们的警长与警察比任何人都更了解当地社区。”不过，马歇尔自身也面临着诸多争议。
Marshall responded with measured critique: "When ICE operates in Kansas, it needs to coordinate with our local law enforcement," he posted on X on Sept. 23. "Our sheriffs and police know these communities better than anyone." Adding to Marshall's troubles are controversies all his own.
据《纽约时报》9月8日报道，身为医生的马歇尔因患者拖欠医疗费，将自己诊所的700多名患者告上法庭。《纽约时报》发现，有81名患者因未按时出庭而被逮捕；律师们还扣押了这些患者的工资与银行账户资金，且这些患者通常还需承担18%的年利息。
The New York Times reported on Sept. 8 that Marshall, a physician, sued more than 700 patients of his medical clinic over unpaid bills. The Times found that patients were arrested in 81 cases after missing court dates; lawyers also garnished patients' wages and bank accounts, and patients were routinely charged 18% annual interest.
民主党人也因马歇尔与佛罗里达州的关联对其提出批评——马歇尔在佛罗里达州拥有一处房产。
Democrats have also criticized Marshall for his ties to Florida, where he maintained a home.
马歇尔的竞选团队对这些指责均予以否认。其幕僚长布伦特·罗伯逊称汉密尔顿关于医疗债务的指责“完全是谎言”，并指出《堪萨斯州权利法案》明确规定不得因债务问题监禁民众。他还补充道：“马歇尔参议员定居在堪萨斯州，他在这片占地300多英亩的土地上定居的事实确凿无疑。”眼下，马歇尔与民主党挑战者之间的竞争日趋白热化，这也反映出共和党整体正构筑起更为严密的防御体系。
Marshall's campaign rejected both attacks. Brent Robertson, Marshall's chief of staff, called the premise of Hamilton's medical-debt attack "a lie on its face," noting that the Kansas Bill of Rights prohibits imprisonment for debt. He also said, "Senator Marshall lives in Kansas, and his residence on 300+ acres is well established." A Democratic challenger Marshall's tightening contest is part of a widening defensive perimeter for the GOP.
今年8月，库克政治报告将得克萨斯州与艾奥瓦州这两个共和党控制的参议院席位争夺战评级为“胜负难料”。9月，该机构又将堪萨斯州的席位争夺战评级调至民主党有利方向，并将南卡罗来纳州也纳入竞争激烈的席位争夺区。截至9月23日，该机构仍将参议院控制权的归属判定为“胜负难料”。
Cook moved Republican-held Senate races in Texas and Iowa to "Toss Up" in August. In September, it shifted Kansas toward Democrats and moved South Carolina onto the competitive map. As of Sept. 23, the publication rates control of the Senate a toss-up.
“本轮选举刚开始时，根本没人会把堪萨斯州视作竞选战场，”堪萨斯州民主党主席吉安娜·雷帕斯说道。
"Nobody had Kansas on their bingo card as a battleground when this cycle began," Kansas Democratic Party Chair Jeanna Repass said.
政治专家向CNBC透露，汉密尔顿为此次竞选带来了独特的跨阵营吸引力。他花了三十年时间建立起全美规模最大的卫理公会教会，如今带着一个早已遍布各界的支持网络投身竞选，这些支持者远不止来自传统的民主党阵营。
Hamilton brings unique crossover appeal to the race, political experts tell CNBC. He spent three decades building the largest United Methodist congregation in the country and entered the race with an established network reaching well beyond traditional Democratic circles.
“在我所在的地区，连民主党候选人都难以争取到竞选众议院或州议会席位的机会，但汉密尔顿却大受欢迎，”雷帕斯对CNBC说道，并补充说在一些社区里，汉密尔顿的支持者正“挨家挨户地拉票”。
"Hamilton is wildly popular in places where I can't even get a Democratic candidate to run for a House seat, a state legislative seat," Repass told CNBC, adding that Hamilton has supporters "knocking every door" in some of those communities.
贝蒂指出，汉密尔顿的过往经历也助力他赢得了民主党基本盘之外的选民支持——他曾先后以共和党人和民主党人身份参选，今年在考虑以独立候选人身份参选期间还一度保持无党派状态。
Hamilton's background — he has previously beened as both a Republican and a Democrat and briefly became unaffiliated this year while considering an independent bid — has also made it easier for him to appeal outside the Democratic base, Beatty said.
“他为温和派共和党人及无党派选民跨越党派界限提供了契机，”贝蒂对CNBC说道。
"He creates a permission structure for moderate Republicans and independents to cross the aisle," Beatty told CNBC.
这种跨阵营吸引力也让他获得了多位知名前共和党州长——比尔·格雷夫斯、迈克·海登，以及马歇尔在最近共和党初选中的竞争对手阿奇·纳拉莫尔的支持。与此同时，埃默森学院9月份的民调显示，在独立选民中，汉密尔顿以42%对27%的得票率领先于马歇尔。
That appeal is yielding endorsements from prominent former Republican Govs. Bill Graves and Mike Hayden, as well as Marshall's recent GOP primary challenger, Arch Naramore. Meanwhile, the September Emerson College poll found Hamilton leading Marshall among independent voters, 42% to 27%.
“堪萨斯州不会在一夜之间发生意识形态层面的转向，”资深共和党策略师、前堪萨斯州州长萨姆·布朗巴克的幕僚长戴维·肯辛格说道，“但目前选民们情绪焦躁，而汉密尔顿并非掌权者。”汉密尔顿的竞选策略也得益于堪萨斯州近期屡屡违背共和党正统路线的倾向。
"Kansas isn't undergoing an ideological realignment overnight," said David Kensinger, a veteran Republican strategist and former chief of staff to Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback. "But voters are frustrated right now and Hamilton isn't the one in power." Hamilton's strategy also depends on Kansas' recent penchant for bucking GOP orthodoxy.
2022年，近59%的选民否决了旨在进一步限制堕胎的修正案，三个月后又再次选举民主党人劳拉·凯利连任州长。2025年，众多共和党议员抵制特朗普推动的年中选区重划计划，致使相关特别会议未能召开。今年8月，选民们也以压倒性多数否决了由共和党支持的、旨在改变州最高法院大法官遴选方式的提案。
In 2022, nearly 59% rejected an amendment that would have allowed lawmakers to further restrict abortion, then re-elected Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly three months later. In 2025, enough Republican legislators resisted Trump's push for mid-decade redistricting to block a special session. And in August, voters overwhelmingly rejected a Republican-backed proposal to change how state Supreme Court justices are selected.
“堪萨斯州依然是一个典型的共和党大本营，”雷帕斯对CNBC说道，“只不过现在出现了一些摇摆迹象。”尽管有这些预警信号，堪萨斯州的共和党人其实以前也遇到过类似情况。
"Kansas is still a very deep red state," Repass told CNBC. "We just have purple veins." The GOP firewall Despite the warning signs, Kansas Republicans have seen versions of this before.
1974年水门事件之后，鲍勃·多尔以微弱优势成功连任。此后，所有在堪萨斯州参选的共和党候选人均以两位数的优势胜出。最近一次是在2014年，共和党籍参议员帕特·罗伯茨原本与独立候选人格雷格·奥曼的竞争十分胶着，最终却以约11个百分点的优势胜出。六年之后，马歇尔与民主党人芭芭拉·博利尔的竞选同样在后期显得难分伯仲，结果马歇尔仍以超过11个百分点的差距获胜。
After Bob Dole narrowly survived reelection in the aftermath of Watergate in 1974, every Republican Senate nominee in Kansas has won by double digits. More recently, Republican Sen. Pat Roberts appeared locked in a close contest with independent Greg Orman in 2014 before winning by roughly 11 points. Six years later, Marshall's race against Democrat Barbara Bollier also appeared competitive late in the campaign before he won by more than 11 points.
“这种情况屡见不鲜，”堪萨斯州共和党主席达内德里·赫伯特对CNBC表示，“那些态度摇摆或尚未决定投票意向的选民，往往会在选举日临近时重新倒向共和党阵营。”目前马歇尔在资金方面也占据明显优势：截至7月15日——即候选人提交初选前财务报告的截止日期——他的竞选团队拥有540万美元现金储备，这一数额是汉密尔顿170万美元资金的3倍有余。不过，共和党人仍不敢掉以轻心。
"This has happened regularly," Kansas Republican Party Chair Danedri Herbert told CNBC. "Republicans who drift or remain undecided often return to the party as Election Day approaches." Marshall also retains a substantial financial advantage. As of July 15, the cutoff for the candidates' pre-primary FEC reports, his campaign held $5.4 million in cash, more than triple Hamilton's $1.7 million. But Republicans aren't taking chances.
据Semafor报道，周五，与共和党参议院领导层关系密切的超级政治行动委员会“参议院领导基金”在堪萨斯州启动了耗资数百万美元的广告宣传活动以支持马歇尔；与此同时，该委员会暂停了在北卡罗来纳州的广告投放。据AdImpact数据显示，该组织已为堪萨斯州的竞选活动预留了近820万美元资金，直至选举日。
On Friday, the Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Republican leadership, began a multimillion-dollar advertising campaign in Kansas to support Marshall while pausing additional spending in North Carolina, Semafor reported. The group has reserved nearly $8.2 million in Kansas through Election Day, according to AdImpact.
“我们的目标很简单：助力共和党人在整个堪萨斯州获胜，”赫伯特说道，“这次参议院选举至关重要，不容有失，我们自然也会全力以赴。”
"Our mission is simple: help Republicans win throughout Kansas," Herbert said. "The Senate race is too critical to take for granted, and we are treating it that way."