作者：朱利安·李俄罗斯近两个月来原油出口量创下新高，与此同时油价再度上涨，使得这些出口原油的总价值达到2022年俄乌全面战争爆发前的水平。不过，对炼油企业的补贴政策以及柴油出口禁令正在逐渐消耗莫斯科的战争资金储备。
By Julian Lee Russia shipped the most crude in two months while another jump in prices propelled the value of those cargoes to the highest since before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But subsidies to refiners and a diesel exports ban are chipping away at Moscow’s war chest.
据彭博社整理的油轮运输数据显示，截至10月4日的四周内，俄罗斯原油海外出口量升至每日376万桶，这一数值为8月初以来的最高水平。这一出口规模有效满足了印度和中国等主要客户的炼油需求，而受美伊冲突影响，波斯湾地区的原油供应依然受限。
In the four weeks through Oct. 4, overseas crude flows rose to 3.76 million barrels a day, tanker-movements data compiled by Bloomberg showed. That was the most since early August, and helped to meet the needs of refiners in key customers India and China, with supplies from the Persian Gulf still constrained by the hostilities between the US and Iran.
在原油出口量增加的同时，截至10月4日的四周内，俄罗斯波罗的海地区出口的乌拉尔原油均价也创下战时新高。其他原油品级的报价虽略逊一筹，但仍高于5月份的水平。总体而言，高油价与出口量的同步增长促使俄罗斯原油出口总价值创下新的四周平均值纪录。
At the same time as crude flows are rising, four-week average prices to Oct. 4 for Russia’s key Urals crude loaded in the Baltic Sea hit a wartime high. Other grades were not quite so strong, pricing slightly below levels last seen in May. Still, the high prices and jump in flows combined to lift the value of crude shipments to a fresh high on a four-week average basis.
然而，尽管出口增长有助于增加政府收入，对克里姆林宫而言却并非全是好消息。
But while that surge helps boost revenues for the government, it’s not all good news for the Kremlin.
原油出口量的上升其实源于乌克兰无人机袭击的影响：多次袭击导致俄罗斯多家炼油厂暂时停产。虽然9月份袭击频率降至三个月以来的最低水平，但其发生速度仍快于炼油厂的修复速度，致使国内石油加工能力未能显著提升。据估计，上月俄罗斯日均炼油量仍低于400万桶，因此莫斯科不得不将无法在国内加工的原油转为出口。
The jump in crude flows has been driven by repeated Ukrainian drone strikes that put several of Russia’s refineries out of action, at least for a while. Even though the intensity of the attacks fell to a three-month low in September, the pace of strikes was still faster than the speed of repairs, preventing a meaningful pickup in oil processing. Refinery runs likely remained below 4 million barrels a day last month, forcing Moscow to divert crude that can’t be processed domestically into the export stream.
由于国内关键燃料出现短缺，克里姆林宫决定将柴油出口禁令延续至10月。在基辅加大袭击力度之前，俄罗斯日均柴油出口量约为100万桶。为缓解国内燃料供应压力，俄罗斯政府上月向石油企业发放了四年多以来的最大规模补贴，以鼓励其向国内市场供应道路用燃料。
However, a shortage of key fuels has led the Kremlin to extend through October a ban on most overseas sales of diesel, which averaged about 1 million barrels a day before Kyiv’s intensified attacks. It also led the government to pay oil companies the biggest subsidy in more than four years last month to supply road fuels to the domestic market.
柴油出口收入的减少以及创多年新高的炼油补贴支出，都在不断消耗俄罗斯的财政储备。
The loss of diesel export revenues and the multi-year high in subsidies to refiners both drain the war chest.
船舶追踪数据与港口代理报告显示，截至10月4日的一周内，约有36艘油轮装载了2521万桶俄罗斯原油。这一数量略低于前一周——当时有37艘船运出了2790万桶原油。
In the week to Oct. 4, some 36 tankers loaded 25.21 million barrels of Russian crude, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume compared with 27.9 million barrels on 37 ships the previous week.
从新罗西斯克港发出的原油运输量有所回升，最近一周完成装货作业的船只数量也恢复到了7月份以来的最高水平。不过，每周的原油出口量往往波动较大，受天气、设备维护、制裁措施、军事活动以及船只出发时间等因素影响。
Shipments from Novorossiysk recovered, with the number of ships completing loading operations during the most recent week returning to levels not seen since July. Weekly shipments can be volatile, affected by weather, maintenance work, sanctions, military activity and the timing of departures.
本周，有一批哈萨克斯坦产的Kebco级原油从新罗西斯克港发运。上个月，俄罗斯将所有哈萨克斯坦原油的运输路线改道至黑海港口，从而为波罗的海沿岸的乌斯季卢加港腾出更多运力，后者被认为运输安全性更高。
There was one shipment of Kazakhstan’s Kebco grade from Novorossiysk during the week. Moscow diverted all shipments of Kazakh crude last month through the Black Sea port, freeing up more capacity for its own barrels at Ust-Luga on the Baltic, which is seen as safer.
上周，在海上航行的俄罗斯原油总量保持平稳。那些将北极地区产原油运往中国的船只通常会把货物转装到其他船舶上。此类转运一般发生在走红海航线的船只于新加坡以东海域进行，而走北方海航线的船只则多在纳霍德卡或扎鲁比诺附近完成转运。大多数Sokol级原油也在此处转运，通常是在科兹米诺湾。这些转运过程往往会导致运输延迟，进而使得海上原油存量增加。
The amount of Russian crude on the water remained steady last week. Ships hauling Arctic crude to China are typically transferring their cargoes onto other vessels. These transfers usually take place east of Singapore from ships taking the Red Sea route and off Nakhodka or Zarubino for those taking the Northern Sea Route. Most Sokol cargoes are also transferred, usually in Kozmino Bay. These transfers can introduce delays, boosting the amount of oil at sea.
以四周平均值计算，截至10月4日的28天内，俄罗斯的原油出口总值升至每周25.8亿美元，较截至9月27日的同期数值增加了2亿美元。这一数值也达到了2022年2月俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰之前的峰值水平。这一增长主要得益于俄罗斯主要原油品种的四周平均价格上升以及出口量的增加。
On a four-week average basis, the gross value of Moscow’s exports rose to $2.58 billion a week in the 28 days to Oct. 4, up by $200 million from the figure for the period to Sept. 27. That took the value of Moscow’s crude shipments using this measure to the highest since before Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The increase was driven by a combination of higher four-week average prices for Russia’s key crudes and the increase in flows.
不过从单周数据来看，出口总值则减少了约1.6亿美元，降至25.8亿美元。乌拉尔原油价格的上涨被出口量的下降所抵消。
On a weekly basis, the value of exports fell by about $160 million to $2.58 billion, with higher Urals prices more than offset by a drop in shipments.
中国和印度依然是俄罗斯原油的最大买家，且领先优势明显。不过，在油轮航行途中往往难以确定每批货物的最终目的地，因此近期许多油轮上标注的目的地仅为苏伊士、苏丹港或新加坡等中转站。在获得可靠的最终目的地信息前，这些货物均被归类为“亚洲未知地区”。若油轮的目的地仍显示为俄罗斯的装货港或直布罗陀等地，则被标记为“其他未知地区”。在截至10月4日的28天内，运往俄罗斯亚洲客户的原油量日均达363万桶，这一数值高于截至9月27日期间的日均361万桶。
China and India remain the biggest buyers of Russian crude by a considerable margin. But it’s not always possible to assign a final destination to individual cargoes until well into their voyage, leaving many of the more recent shipments on tankers showing interim destinations, such as Suez, Port Sudan, or Singapore. These are recorded as “Unknown Asia” until a credible final destination is available. Ships still showing their destinations as their Russian loading ports, or places such as Gibraltar, are recorded as “Other Unknown.”Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, rose to 3.63 million barrels a day in the 28 days to Oct. 4, up from a revised 3.61 million in the period to Sept. 27.
在截至10月4日的四周内，运往俄罗斯在地中海地区其他客户的原油量则处于乌克兰危机爆发以来的低位，日均仅约13万桶。
Shipments to Moscow’s remaining customers in the Mediterranean region remain near the lowest since the Ukraine invasion, falling to about 130,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Oct. 4.
作为苏伊士运河以西最大的俄罗斯原油买家，土耳其的进口量有所回升，日均约10万桶；而作为俄罗斯在东地中海地区的新客户，埃及的进口量则降至日均约3万桶。
Flows to Turkey, Russia’s biggest buyer west of Suez, rose to about 100,000 barrels a day, while shipments to Egypt, Russia’s newest east Mediterranean customer, fell to about 30,000 barrels a day.
自8月起，叙利亚的俄罗斯原油进口量已降为零。此前该国在与美国就解除剩余制裁事宜的谈判中同意“大幅削减”从俄罗斯的石油进口量。
Flows to Syria have fallen to zero since August after the Mediterranean nation agreed to “drastically” reduce Russian oil imports in negotiations with the US on lifting remaining sanctions.
本文属于每周更新的系列报道，旨在追踪俄罗斯各出口码头的原油运输情况及其总体贸易价值。下期更新时间待定。所有数据均不含被认定为哈萨克斯坦KEBCO级原油的货量。这些原油由哈萨克斯坦国家石油运输公司负责运输，经俄罗斯的诺沃罗西斯克和乌斯季卢加港出口，不受欧盟制裁或价格上限限制。哈萨克斯坦的原油会与俄罗斯产原油混合，形成统一的出口货源。自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，哈萨克斯坦对本国出口原油重新贴标，以区别于俄罗斯企业的产品。
This story forms part of a weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be on All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.
彭博社规定：如果船只的自动定位信号看似被关闭或篡改——这种手段被称为“信号欺骗”——从而掩盖两艘船靠近并进行货物交接的事实，那么此类船对船货物转运行为即被视为秘密操作。
Bloomberg classifies ship-to-ship transfers as clandestine if automated position signals appear to be switched off or falsified — a tactic known as spoofing — to hide the two vessels involved coming together to make the cargo switch.
船舶追踪数据会与港口代理报告，以及包括Kpler和Vortexa Ltd.在内的其他信息供应商所提供的船舶动向与物流信息进行交叉比对，同时还会参考俄罗斯各港口的卫星图像作为佐证。
Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port-agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd. and satellite imagery covering Russian ports.
若您正在彭博终端上阅读本文，可点击链接下载一份记录了过去四周俄罗斯向各主要目的地平均货运量的PDF文件。
If you are reading this story on the Bloomberg terminal, click for a link to a PDF file of four-week average flows from Russia to key destinations.