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大规模杀戮并不意味着以色列正在获胜The mass killing does not mean Israel’s winning

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以色列士兵在以色列尼尔阿姆基布兹眺望加沙地带被摧毁的贾巴利亚市,时间为2026年4月22日 [埃里克·马莫尔/盖蒂图片社]Israeli soldiers looking at the destroyed city of Jabalia, in Gaza Strip, near Kibbutz Nir Am on April 22, 2026 in Kibbutz Nir Am, Israel [Erik Marmor/Getty Images]

哈马斯袭击震撼以色列并引发持续至今的种族灭绝战争,距今已有三年。以色列军队不可战胜的形象被彻底粉碎。作为回应,以色列动用了除核弹之外的全部军事力量,并动员所有西方盟友,发起了一场前所未有的死亡与毁灭行动,使加沙沦为废墟。

Three years have passed since Hamas’s attack shook Israel and triggered the ongoing genocidal war. The image of the Israeli army as an invincible force was shattered. In response, Israel used all its military power – except the nuclear bomb – and mobilised all its Western allies to unleash an unprecedent campaign of death and destruction that has devastated Gaza.

以色列军队不仅针对伊斯兰抵抗组织的军事据点和战斗人员,更试图通过大屠杀和大规模破坏来惩罚平民。迄今为止,已有超过7.4万人被杀,超过18万人受伤,整个加沙人口面临饥饿,医疗系统被摧毁,教育体系遭到重创,加沙大部分维持生命的基础设施也被夷为平地,包括水处理和海水淡化厂以及电网。

The Israeli army did not just target military positions and fighters of the Islamic resistance, it set out to punish the civilian population through massacres and mass destruction. By now, it has killed more than 74,000 and injured more than 180,000, starved the entire population, destroyed the healthcare system, devastated the education system, and wiped out most of Gaza’s life-sustaining infrastructure, including water treatment and desalination plants and electricity grid.

如果军事力量的目的是实现政治目标,那么衡量成功的标准不应是死亡人数或破坏程度,而应是冲突是否以预期的条件结束。

If the purpose of military power is to achieve political objectives, then the measure of success cannot be the number of people killed or the scale of destruction wrought. It has to be whether the conflict has ended on the desired terms.

然而,这场屠杀持续了三年,以色列似乎仍无法将其军事优势转化为体现其既定目标的政治现实。

But three years into this carnage, Israel appears unable to translate its military superiority into a political reality that reflects its stated goals.

从一开始,以色列政府就明确表示,其目标是解救被俘人员、消灭巴勒斯坦抵抗力量、对加沙地带实施安全控制,并建立替代性行政机构。同时,它也隐晦地表明,希望为最终驱逐巴勒斯坦人铺平道路。那么,迄今为止它取得了什么成果?

From the start, the Israeli government made clear it aimed to free the captives, eliminate the Palestinian resistance, impose security control over the Gaza Strip, and establish an alternative administration. It also tacitly demonstrated it wished to prepare the ground for the eventual expulsion of the Palestinians. So what has it achieved so far?

首先,所有被俘人员都已被解救。但在被带到加沙的250人中,以色列军队仅成功解救出8人,并找回了另外12人的遗体。在轰炸行动中,至少有3人被击毙,另有不明数量的人员丧生。

First, all captives have been freed. But of the 250 taken to Gaza, the Israeli army managed to free just eight and recovered the bodies of another 12. It shot dead at least three and killed an unknown number of others during bombing operations.

绝大多数被俘者——无论生死——都是在与哈马斯进行激烈外交和谈判之后获释的。以色列军方负责被俘者事务的负责人最近表示,这些被俘者本可以早一年获释,其中一些死者本也可以被救活,这一事实颇具启发性。压倒性的军事力量在处理被俘者问题上显然失败了。

The vast majority of captives – both dead and alive – were released after intense diplomacy and negotiations with Hamas. It is quite telling that the Israeli army’s point man for the captives issue recently said that the captives could have been released a year earlier and some of those who died could have been saved. Overwhelming military power clearly failed in the captives file.

其次,尽管进行了大规模军事行动并暗杀了大量领导人,以色列仍未能终结巴勒斯坦抵抗力量在加沙地带的存在。尽管持续遭受以色列的轰炸以及亲以色列的巴勒斯坦民兵组织的攻击,哈马斯仍然控制着加沙地带的一部分。如今,以色列被迫通过谈判实现哈马斯的解除武装,而非依靠武力达成这一目标。

Second, Israel has also been unable to end the presence of the Palestinian resistance in the Gaza Strip despite extensive military operations and the assassination of a large number of its leaders. Hamas continues to be in control of parts of the Strip despite facing continuing Israeli bombing campaigns and attacks by pro-Israel Palestinian militias. Israel has now been forced to negotiate Hamas’s disarmament rather than achieve it by force.

第三,以色列军队已经占领了加沙地带60%的领土,但并未采取大规模行动以控制剩余地区。这是因为以色列明白,这一决定所带来的政治、人道主义和军事代价将过于高昂。

Third, the Israeli army has occupied 60 percent of the Gaza Strip, but it has stopped short of a massive operation to take over the rest of the territory. That is because it understands that the political, humanitarian, and military costs of such a decision would be too high.

第四,以色列及其首要盟友美国曾投入大量精力,试图建立一个和平委员会,并制定一项排除联合国的加沙地带重建和替代管理计划。然而,这一努力基本以失败告终。加沙行政委员会尚未进入该地区接管治理工作,协议中的人道主义条款也尚未实施。

Fourth, Israel and its foremost ally, the United States, put a lot of effort into the creation of the Board of Peace and a plan for the reconstruction and alternative administration of the Gaza Strip that excludes the UN. However, that effort has largely failed. The administrative committee for Gaza has not entered the territory to take over governing and the humanitarian provisions of the agreement are yet to be implemented.

最后,将巴勒斯坦人驱逐出加沙的准备并未取得显著进展。以色列试图通过反复的驱逐、饥饿、摧毁房屋和基础设施,以及各种“自愿撤离”计划,迫使巴勒斯坦人离开他们的土地。破坏行动已使加沙地带变得无法居住,但大多数巴勒斯坦人明确表示希望留在这里。甚至还有人从埃及返回。

Finally, the preparation for the expulsion of the Palestinians from Gaza has not made significant progress. Israel has tried to push Palestinians to leave their land through repeated displacement, starvation, the destruction of homes and infrastructure, and various schemes for “voluntary departure”. Destruction has made the Strip unlivable, but the majority of the Palestinian population has made clear it wants to stay. There have even been returnees from Egypt.

到了这一步,很明显以色列在加沙面临着一个“战后”问题。其军队能够夷平整个加沙地带,却无法建立一个符合以色列目标和愿望的新政治现实。

At this point, it is clear that Israel faces a “day after” problem in Gaza. Its military is able to raze the Strip, but not build a new political reality that satisfies Israeli aims and desires.

那种认为将加沙变成一片末日景象会令全体民众陷入绝望,从而放弃他们的事业和权利的希望已被彻底粉碎。

The hope that reducing Gaza into an apocalyptic landscape would push the entire population into such despair that they would give up on their cause and their rights has been quashed.

巴勒斯坦人的持续存在、持续抵抗,以及巴勒斯坦事业日益增长的政治和国际影响力,都表明以色列采取残酷侵略的做法已经失败。

The continued presence of Palestinians, the continued resistance, and the growing political and international prominence of the Palestinian cause have demonstrated that the Israeli approach of brutal aggression has failed.

军事力量可以强加一种暂时性的现实,但它本身无法创造政治合法性。更糟糕的是,它实际上可能摧毁合法性。而以色列政府乃至整个以色列计划,恰恰遭遇了这种情况。

Military power can impose a temporary reality, but it cannot produce political legitimacy on its own. Worse still, it can actually destroy legitimacy. And that is exactly what has happened to the Israeli government and the Israeli project as a whole.

上个月,当以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡登上联合国大会讲台发表演讲时,大多数联合国成员国的代表都离开了会场。

When, last month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took to the podium to deliver his speech before the UN General Assembly, representatives of the majority of UN members walked out of the hall.

内塔尼亚胡本人也面临国际刑事法院就战争罪和危害人类罪签发的逮捕令。

Netanyahu himself faces an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

而以色列这场种族灭绝式的战争所摧毁的,不仅仅是他的国际地位。

And it’s not just his international standing that the Israeli genocidal war has destroyed.

以色列正日益遭到全球多数国家的排斥。皮尤研究中心对36个国家进行的调查显示,67%的成年人对该国持负面看法。以色列主要盟友的民众对以色列的负面看法也在加剧:美国为60%,德国为73%,英国为69%,法国为68%。

Israel is increasingly spurned by the global majority. A Pew Research survey across 36 countries found that 67 percent of adults see the country unfavourably. The populations of key Israeli allies perceive Israel increasingly negatively: the US – 60 percent; Germany – 73 percent; United Kingdom – 69 percent; France – 68 percent.

在华盛顿,围绕美国是否应支持以色列的辩论愈演愈烈,以至于越来越多议员开始支持旨在削减军事援助或实施制裁的法案。在欧洲各国首都,类似的讨论也促成了近期对与以色列非法定居点贸易的限制措施。

In Washington, the debate about US support for Israel has intensified to the point that a growing number of lawmakers are supporting bills that propose curbing military aid or imposing sanctions. In European capitals, similar discussions have resulted in the recent imposition of restrictions on trade with illegal Israeli settlements.

今天,以色列领导人将向本国发表讲话,吹嘘军事胜利,颂扬军事实力,并承诺更多报复。

Today, Israeli leaders will address their nation, boasting of military successes, celebrating military prowess and promising more revenge.

但事实是,以色列军队作为世界最强的军队之一,拥有最先进的战斗机、复杂的无人机以及由人工智能引导的900吨级炸弹,却对一支仅配备轻武器的弱势非国家行为体发动了种族灭绝战争……并失败了。

But the truth is, the Israeli army, one of the strongest in the world, wielding state-of-the-art fighter jets, sophisticated drones, and AI-navigated 900-tonne bombs, launched a genocidal war against a weak non-state actor armed with small arms … and lost.

人可以被杀害,房屋可以被摧毁,领土也可以被控制,但一个几十年来一直引起世界共鸣的民族事业,是无法通过军事力量彻底抹去的。

People can be killed, homes can be pulverised, and territory can be controlled, but a national cause that has resonated with the world for decades cannot be wiped out through military force.