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美联储会议纪要显示9月加息背后鹰派立场一致Fed Minutes Show Hawkish Unity Behind September Rate Hike

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9月份,全部19位美联储官员都支持加息的决定,其中许多人支持此举,以防范通胀压力加剧的风险。

All 19 Federal Reserve officials backed the decision in September to raise interest rates, with many supporting the move to guard against the risk of intensifying inflation pressures.

根据周三在华盛顿公布的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)9月15日至16日会议纪要,另一批官员表示,基于他们对经济的展望,有必要进一步提高利率,这表明他们对高通胀的担忧更为严重。

A separate group of officials said higher rates were necessary based on their outlook for the economy, signaling greater concern for elevated inflation, according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee Sept. 15-16 meeting released Wednesday in Washington.

位于华盛顿的马里纳·S·埃克尔斯联邦储备大楼。The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington.

会议纪要称:“大多数与会者评估认为,到今年年底,再次上调联邦基金利率目标区间可能是适当的。”

“Most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end,” the minutes said.

FOMC的投票者上个月一致支持将基准利率目标区间上调0.25个百分点至3.75%至4%——这是自2023年7月以来的首次加息。此次调整是在更广泛经济出现加速迹象的背景下做出的。

FOMC voters unanimously backed the decision last month to raise the target range for their benchmark rate by a quarter-percentage point to 3.75% to 4% -- the first increase since July 2023. The move came amid signs the broader economy was accelerating.

会议纪要还称:“多位与会者指出,经济的基本动能似乎有所增强。”

“Several participants commented that the underlying momentum in the economy appeared to have increased,” the minutes also said.

会议纪要还披露了有关金融条件的讨论。许多官员指出,尽管近期长期国债收益率有所上升,但“金融条件似乎仍对经济增长构成支持,今年股市价格大幅上涨,企业债券利差也保持在较低水平”。主席凯文·沃什在9月16日决策会议后对记者表示,此举旨在削减“一部分宽松政策”,因为通胀仍然顽固地处于高位。他的言论加剧了市场对于10月可能再次加息的猜测。

The record also revealed a discussion about financial conditions. Many officials commented that despite the recent rise in longer-term Treasury yields, “financial conditions appeared to be supportive of economic growth, with equity prices having risen substantially this year and spreads on corporate bonds having remained narrow.”Chairman Kevin Warsh told reporters following the Sept. 16 decision the move was aimed at removing a “dose of accommodation” as inflation remained stubbornly high. His comments fueled market bets for another increase in October.

这一决定也招致了总统唐纳德·特朗普的批评,他将加息归咎于沃什的同事,并声称这些人“非常政治化”。然而,自会议以来,多位美联储关键官员的一系列言论表明,这家中央银行可能并不急于再次加息。

The decision also prompted criticism from President Donald Trump, who blamed the rate increase on Warsh’s colleagues, whom he claimed were being “very political.”Since the meeting, however, a series of comments from key Fed officials have indicated the central bank may be in no rush to raise rates again.

美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊和纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯上周在各自的讲话中表示,他们认为央行还有时间评估经济状况,然后再考虑再次加息。投资者随即下调了本月加息的预期。

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams said in separate speeches last week they believed the central bank has time to assess the economy before considering another rate increase. Investors promptly reeled in their expectations for a rate hike this month.

根据联邦基金期货数据,周三投资者预计美联储在10月27日至28日会议上再次加息25个基点的概率约为20%,远低于9月决议公布后几天约70%的水平。被视为对美联储政策最为敏感的两年期美国国债收益率在过去一周下跌超过10个基点,降至接近4.8%。

Investors on Wednesday were pricing in a roughly 20% chance of another quarter-point hike at the Fed’s Oct. 27-28 meeting, down from around 70% in the days following the September decision, based on federal funds futures. Yields on two-year Treasuries, seen as the most sensitive to Fed policy, dropped more than 10 basis points in the past week to near 4.8%.

威廉姆斯和杰斐逊上周的言论并不意味着美联储不会进一步调整政策。官员们仍在持续警告称,通胀水平仍然过高。将于10月14日公布的消费者物价数据或许仍会重新引发短期内加息的呼吁。

Last week’s remarks by Williams and Jefferson don’t mean the Fed won’t adjust policy any further. Officials continue to warn that inflation is too high. Consumer price data due Oct. 14 might yet revive calls for a near-term hike.

一些官员,包括三位曾在7月投票反对联邦公开市场委员会维持利率不变的人士,如果多数人在10月会议上投票决定维持利率不变,他们可能会再次投出支持进一步加息的反对票。

Some officials, including three who voted against the FOMC decision to hold steady in July, could dissent again in favor of another increase if the majority votes to leave rates unchanged at the October meeting.

会议纪要指出:“多位与会者表示,他们认为当前的政策利率并不具有限制性,或者仅具有轻微的限制性。”此处指的是9月加息前的基准利率。

“Several participants stated that they viewed the current policy rate as not restrictive or only mildly restrictive,” the minutes said, referring to the benchmark rate before the September hike.