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国际货币基金组织表示,人工智能投资使全球增长保持在3%左右,亚洲主要经济体从中受益IMF says AI investment keeps global growth around 3%, with major Asia benefits

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曼谷,10月12日 - 国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃周一表示,对人工智能基础设施的强劲投资正在将全球增长维持在约3%,为许多供应硬件的亚洲经济体带来重大利益,例如泰国。

BANGKOK, Oct 12 - Strong investment in AI infrastructure is keeping global growth at around 3%, yielding major benefits for many Asian economies that supply the hardware, such as Thailand, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday.

她表示,人工智能投资热潮已经开始带来“需求冲击、投资冲击”,这可能使先进亚洲经济体的增长提升0.5至1个百分点,新兴亚洲经济体提升0.2至0.8个百分点。“人工智能,爱它,恨它。它已经到来,”格奥尔基耶娃说。

The artificial intelligence investment boom was already delivering a "demand shock, an investment shock" that could boost growth in advanced Asian economies by a half to one full percentage point, and emerging Asian economies by 0.2 to 0.8 percentage point, she said. "AI, love it, hate it.

“这种转向更高档位正是使世界经济在能源供应冲击的拖累下仍能保持约3%增长的关键。”她在泰国首都举行的一周国际货币基金组织和世界银行会议首日对数百名与会者如是说。

It's already here," Georgieva said. "That shift into higher gear is what is keeping the world economy growing at around 3%, despite the fact we are being dragged down by the energy supply shock," she told hundreds of participants on the first day of a weeklong set of meetings of the IMF and World Bank in the Thai capital.

国际货币基金组织7月曾预测2026年全球增长率为3%。该组织将于周二发布更新后的展望。

The IMF in July forecast global growth at 3% in 2026. It will release an updated outlook on Tuesday.

预计本周将有约1.8万人参加会议,包括国际货币基金组织191个成员国的财政官员。知情人士透露,若干部长将缺席会议以专注于国内事务,包括美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特和西班牙财政部长阿尔卡迪·埃斯帕尼亚。

Some 18,000 people are expected to attend the meetings this week, including finance officials from the IMF's 191 members. Several ministers will skip the meeting to focus on domestic priorities, including US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Spanish Finance Minister Arcadi España, sources familiar with the matter said.

人工智能将产生深远影响 格奥尔基耶娃表示,人工智能相当于一个“缓慢移动的海啸”,将对就业、增长、教育乃至政府通过税收创收的方式产生深远影响,原因在于劳动力向资本的预期转移。

AI WILL HAVE PROFOUND CONSEQUENCES Georgieva said AI amounted to a "slow-moving tsunami" that would have profound consequences for jobs, growth, education and even how governments generate revenue through taxation, given the expected shift from labor to capital.

她说,国际货币基金组织估计,人工智能可能导致40%的工作岗位随时间推移被增强、降级或取消。一项初步研究显示,美国目前已有10%的工作岗位需要人工智能技能。虽然常规性、重复性岗位正在减少,但低薪岗位在建筑和数据中心这两个低薪行业中正在增加。

The IMF estimates that AI could lead to 40% of jobs being augmented, downgraded or eliminated, over time, she said. An initial study showed that 10% of jobs in the US already required AI skills. While routine, repetitive jobs were shrinking, low-paying jobs were increasing in two lower-paying sectors, construction and data centers.

这是一种变革性技术。它完全改变了我们的工作方式和生活方式,"她指出,现在她每天都会收到人工智能助手发来的30秒日程提醒。

"It is a transformative technology. It so completely changes how we work, how we live," she said, noting that an AI assistant now gave her a 30-second message about her schedule each day.

美国、中国和印度是人工智能供应链中最重要的生产国,但许多构建所需基础设施的公司位于亚洲,格奥尔基耶娃表示,她提到了今年年会的举办地泰国。

The US, China and India are the most important producers in the AI supply chain, but many of the firms building the needed infrastructure are in Asia, Georgieva said, referencing Thailand, host of this year's annual meetings.

人工智能对初级岗位的影响 世界银行行长阿杰·班加一直将就业作为其任期的核心焦点,他表示,该发展银行正专注于利用"小型人工智能"——这种技术不依赖于大型语言模型——为新兴市场的农民、医疗系统、教育工作者等带来巨大的生产力提升。

AI IMPACT ON ENTRY-LEVEL JOBS World Bank President Ajay Banga, who has made jobs a central focus of his presidency, said the development bank was focused on leveraging "small AI", which is not dependent on large language models, to generate enormous productivity gains for farmers, healthcare systems, educators and others in emerging markets.

新加坡总统陈振声在同一场活动中表示,政府应关注人工智能如何减少毕业生的就业机会。"我们面临一个必须尽快解决的特殊问题……那就是,就业的第一阶段——毕业后的第一份工作——如今需求正在减少,"他说。

Singapore's President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, speaking at the same event, said governments should address how AI was reducing job opportunities for graduates. "There is a particular problem that we have to address very soon ... and that is that, the first rung in employment, your first job upon graduation, is now seeing less demand," he said.

他还说,世界还应警惕人工智能导致发展中国家和发达经济体在增长和就业创造方面出现"新的分化"。"如果我们对人工智能的影响太过被动,它将加剧这种分化,"他说。"因此,我们必须尽一切努力,首先利用人工智能创造良好的就业机会,创造人类能够胜任的工作,使他们尽管有人工智能的冲击,仍能在职业阶梯上不断攀升。"

He said the world should also guard against AI resulting in a "new divergence" in growth and job creation between developing and advanced economies. "AI is going to widen the divergence if we are too passive about it," he said. "So we've got to do everything we can to first use AI to create good jobs and to create jobs that can be done well by human beings, can allow them to ride up a career ladder despite AI."