美国经济学家罗伯特·E·霍尔和迈克尔·伍德福德周一荣获诺贝尔经济学奖，以表彰他们在构建模型方面的贡献。这些模型帮助各国政府与中央银行应对经济冲击，例如能源危机和通货膨胀。
American economists Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford won the Nobel Memorial Prize in economics Monday for their work on models that have helped governments and central banks manage economic shocks, such as energy crises and inflation.
瑞典皇家科学院在斯德哥尔摩公布了获奖者名单，并指出他们的研究为更好地理解消费者如何决定储蓄或消费奠定了理论基础。这些洞见使全球政策制定者能够更轻松地稳定经济，以应对经济波动。
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announced the winners in Stockholm, noting that their work created the theoretical foundation to better understand how consumers decide whether to save or spend, insights that make it easier for policymakers worldwide to stabilize economies after fluctuations.
诺贝尔奖委员会写道：“获奖者的研究使得应对重大宏观经济危机比以往任何时候都更加有效。在新冠疫情以及近年来的能源危机期间，这项研究带来了巨大的益处。”霍尔任职于加利福尼亚州的斯坦福大学，而伍德福德则在纽约的哥伦比亚大学工作。
“The laureates’ research has made it possible to manage major macroeconomic crises far more effectively than before,” the Nobel committee wrote. “It has been hugely beneficial during the pandemic and the energy crises of recent years.”Hall is affiliated with Stanford University in California, and Woodford with Columbia University in New York.
伍德福德从纽约通过电话向委员会发言：“这是一项巨大的荣誉，也令人感到意外。”
Woodford spoke to the committee by phone from New York: “It’s a tremendous honor. It’s a surprise.”
二人推翻了早期的经济假设。几十年来，各国政府在应对经济冲击时，一直遵循英国经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯在大萧条时期提出的方案：通过减税和增加政府支出来干预经济，从而鼓励消费者和企业消费与投资，帮助经济重新增长。
Duo overturned earlier economic assumptions For decades, governments responded to economic shocks by following the Depression-era prescriptions of the British economist John Maynard Keynes: Intervene in the economy by lowering taxes and hiking government spending, thereby encouraging consumers and businesses to spend and invest and help restart growth.
诺贝尔经济学奖委员会成员蒂莫·博帕特表示：“这就是凯恩斯主义方案，它曾经行之有效——直到它不再奏效。”
“This is the Keynesian recipe and it worked well — until it didn’t,’’ said Timo Boppart of the Nobel economics committee.
政策制定者曾认为，经济管理涉及简单的权衡取舍——例如，在高通胀时期失业率会保持低位，而当通胀下降时失业率则会上升。然而，20高通胀与高失业率同时出现的“滞胀”现象表明，这一公式过于简单化。
Policymakers had thought economic management involved simple trade-offs — unemployment, for instance, would stay low at a time of high inflation and rise when inflation fell. But the “stagflation ’’ of the 1970s — when the world economy experienced simultaneous high inflation and high unemployment — proved the formula was simplistic.
一些经济学家认为，政府干预经济的尝试注定会失败。但霍尔和伍德福德在各自的贡献中，致力于改进凯恩斯模型，以考虑消费者和企业实际上如何决定是否进行投资和消费。
Some economists argued that government attempts to intervene in the economy were doomed to fail. But Hall and Woodford, in separate contributions, set about improving the Keynesian model to take into account how consumers and businesses actually make decisions about whether to invest and spend.
“经济结果是家庭和企业在微观层面上做出的数百万个决策的结果，”诺贝尔委员会写道。
“Economic outcomes are the result of millions of decisions made at the microlevel by households and businesses,’’ the Nobel committee wrote.
获取每日国家新闻“使用基于这种方法的模型，而不仅仅是从宏观视角研究经济，就像鸟瞰一样，”霍尔和伍德福德的研究“在稳定政策理论中引发了一范式转变。”霍尔研究了消费者选择。霍尔研究了消费者关于是否以及花费多少的决定如何取决于他们对未来收入的预期。
Get daily National news“Using models based upon this approach, rather than simply studying the economy from a macro perspective, like a bird’s eye view,” Hall and Woodford’s research “generated a paradigm shift in the theory of stabilization policy.’’ Hall studied consumer choices Hall studied the way that consumer decisions about whether and how much to spend depend on what they expect their future income to be.
“如果他们持乐观态度，他们就会比持悲观态度时消费更多，”委员会写道。但随着新的经济信息出现，消费者的预期可能会意外变化。而且有些家庭如此贫困，以至于无法借款或动用储蓄来应对经济变化。
“If they are optimistic, they will consume more than if they are pessimistic,’’ the committee wrote. But consumer expectations can change unexpectedly as new information about the economy comes in. And some households are so poor they can’t borrow or tap savings in response to economic changes.
在与经济学家弗雷德里克·米什金（Fredric Mishkin）于1982年合著的一篇论文中，霍尔发现大约80%的家庭基于他们对未来的预期做出消费决策，“而其余家庭则过着‘月光族’的生活，”委员会写道。
In a 1982 paper with the economist Fredric Mishkin, Hall found that around 80 per cent of households made spending decisions based on their expectations for the future “while the rest lived hand to mouth,’’ the committee wrote.
“此奖项表彰的是从底层推动我们对宏观经济学理解的研究——从家庭和企业在时间中做出决策、同时展望未来，”麻省理工学院经济学家伊万·沃宁（Ivan Werning）在一次采访中表示。伍德福德分析了企业如何做出决策。伍德福德的研究表明，企业根据他们对未来利率走势的预期来制定价格决策。
“The prize is for research that pushes our understanding of macroeconomics from the bottom up, from families and firms making decisions over time, while looking ahead,” Ivan Werning, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said in an Woodford analyzed how businesses make decisions Woodford’s research established that businesses make decisions about prices based on where they think interest rates will go in the future.
“如果企业认为竞争对手的价格和自身的成本将会上升，那么最好设定一个高于相反预期情况下的价格，”诺贝尔委员会写道。“因此，企业的决策也受其预期的影响。”因此，像美国联邦储备银行这类设定短期利率的中央银行，应当“清晰且可信地传达其决策逻辑和计划行动。”对此认识，中央银行们通过更努力地解释自身行动作出了回应。
“If the business believes that its competitors’ prices and its own costs will increase, it is best to set a higher price than it would with the opposite expectation,” the Nobel committee wrote. “Businesses’ decisions are thus also governed by their expectations.’’ Therefore, central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, which set short-term interest rates, should provide “clear and credible communication about how they reason and what they plan to do.’’ Central banks have responded to this insight by working harder to explain what they are doing.
在新闻发布会上播出的通话中，伍德福德表示，他的研究一直强调“对市场中的决策者以及他们关于支出决策的理解。”经济学奖是今年最后一个诺贝尔奖项的公布。经济学奖的全称是“瑞典银行纪念阿尔弗雷德·诺贝尔经济学奖”。该奖项由瑞典中央银行于1968年设立，以纪念诺贝尔——这位19世纪的瑞典商人和化学家发明了炸药，并设立了五个诺贝尔奖项。
During the phone call broadcast at a news conference, Woodford said his work has stressed “the understanding of the people who are in the markets and making decisions about spending.”Economics prize is last Nobel announcement this year The economics prize is formally known as the Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. The central bank established it in 1968 as a memorial to Nobel, the 19th-century Swedish businessman and chemist who invented dynamite and established the five Nobel Prizes.
诺贝尔奖项的严格支持者强调，从技术上讲，经济学奖并非诺贝尔奖的一部分，但它始终与其他奖项一同于12月10日——诺贝尔于1896年逝世的纪念日——颁发。
Nobel purists stress that the economics prize is technically not a Nobel Prize, but it is always presented together with the others on Dec. 10, the anniversary of Nobel’s death in 1896.
上周，诺贝尔奖已相继公布了医学、物理、化学、文学和和平领域的获奖者。
Nobel honors were announced last week in medicine, physics, chemistry, literature and peace.
周一颁发的奖项是今年斯坦福大学教授获得的第二个诺贝尔奖。卡尔·戴瑟罗斯博士与彼得·赫格曼和乔治·纳格尔共同分享了医学奖，他们的研究促成了一种利用光线帮助揭示大脑运作机制的工具。
Monday’s award was the second Nobel win for a Stanford University professor this year. Dr. Karl Deisseroth shared the medicine prize with Peter Hegemann and Georg Nagel for their work that led to a tool that uses light to help unravel how the brain works.
今年的奖金为1200万瑞典克朗（约合120万美元），无论获奖者是个人、小型团队还是组织。
The prize money this year is 12 million Swedish kronor (about $1.2 million), whether for an individual, small group of laureates or organization.