PoderData/Aya民调显示，现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在有效票中获得49%，而参议员弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗获得51%，在民调1.8个百分点的误差范围内属于统计意义上的平手。总统决选将于10月25日举行。
A PoderData/Aya poll showed incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 49% of valid votes, compared with 51% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a statistical tie within the poll’s 1.8 percentage-point margin of error. The presidential runoff will be held on Oct. 25.
该民调于10月10日至12日进行，显示差距从6个百分点缩小至2个百分点。参议员下降2个百分点，而总统相比10月8日的民调上升了相同幅度。
The poll, conducted from Oct. 10 to 12, showed the gap narrowing to 2 percentage points from 6. The senator fell 2 points, while the president gained the same amount compared with the Oct. 8 poll.
另一项于周二发布的BTG Pactual/Nexus民调也显示，博尔索纳罗在有效票中获得52%，卢拉获得48%。该民调于10月10日至12日调查了2002名选民，误差范围为2个百分点。
A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll, also released Tuesday, showed Bolsonaro with 52% of valid votes, compared with 48% for Lula. The poll surveyed 2,002 voters from Oct. 10 to 12 and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Globo委托的Quaest民调将于周三发布，随后是周四的Datafolha民调。
A Quaest poll commissioned by Globo is due Wednesday, followed by Datafolha on Thursday.
下表显示了最新的总统民调数据。由于方法学差异和向选民呈现的情景不同，这些数据可能不可比较。
The table below shows the latest presidential polling data. The figures may not be comparable because of differences in methodology and the scenarios presented to voters.
弗拉维奥预计将于周二上午访问巴西利亚的雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗。前总统目前处于居家监禁状态，最高法院大法官亚历山大·德·莫拉埃斯批准了此次访问。该裁决允许探视恢复，但禁止将其用于政治或选举目的，并禁止发布前总统的言论或评论。
Flávio is expected to visit Jair Bolsonaro in Brasília on Tuesday morning. The former president is under house arrest, and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes authorized the visit. The ruling allows visits to resume but prohibits their use for political or electoral purposes and bars the publication of statements or comments by the former president. Original Story:Lula reduz vantagem de Flávio na PoderData: Eleições 2026