欧洲正在测试一种针对“中国冲击2.0”的新应对方式，赌注在于它能够在不诉诸特朗普总统那种高关税手段的情况下，直面北京的出口巨轮。
Europe is testing a new response to China Shock 2.0 betting that it can confront Beijing's export juggernaut without resorting to President Trump's tariff-heavy approach. Why it matters:
为何重要：世界上越来越多的地区开始正视中国产能过剩对其产业构成的威胁。但保护个别行业无法解决更大的问题：中国的工厂生产的产品远超其自身经济能够消化的量。
More of the world is beginning to confront the threat that China's industrial overcapacity poses to their industries. But protecting individual sectors will not solve the bigger problem: China's factories are cranking out far more than its own economy can absorb.
推动新闻：欧洲联盟与中国周五达成了一项初步协议，旨在大幅限制中国混合动力汽车对欧洲的出口。
Driving the news: The European Union and China struck a preliminary deal on Friday to sharply limit Chinese hybrid vehicle exports to Europe.
- 欧盟计划最初将中国混合动力和插电式混合动力汽车的进口量限制在每年35万辆，可能早在12月就开始实施。
• The EU plans to initially cap Chinese hybrid and plug-in hybrid imports at 350,000 annually, potentially starting as early as December.
- 该上限将使原本预计的中国混合动力汽车出口量减半以上，这些出口原本有望在今年达到约80万辆，一位欧盟官员对记者表示。
• The cap would more than halve projected Chinese hybrid shipments, which were on track to reach roughly 800,000 this year, an EU official told reporters.
- 2025年的进口总量为30.2万辆。（中国官员周一指出，该协议仍允许其汽车制造商将出口量提升至去年水平以上。）
• Imports totaled 302,000 in 2025. (Chinese officials Monday noted that the deal still allows its automakers to increase shipments from last year's levels.)
- 超出配额的车辆将被直接阻止进口，而非面临额外关税。
• Vehicles exceeding the quota would be blocked rather than face additional tariffs.
背景：上周，法国和德国提议赋予布鲁塞尔广泛的新权力，以限制不公平贸易行为下的市场准入，这标志着德国的显著转变——该国曾在2024年反对欧盟对中国电动汽车征收关税。
The backdrop: France and Germany last week proposed giving Brussels sweeping new powers to restrict market access over unfair trade practices, a striking shift for Germany, which opposed EU tariffs on Chinese EVs in 2024.
- 欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩在上月的年度讲话中警告称，欧盟与中国的贸易逆差已达到一个“临界点”。
• European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen warned in her annual address last month that the bloc's trade deficit with China had reached a "tipping point."
- “有人认为第二次‘中国冲击’即将到来。但它已经到来，”冯德莱恩说。
• "Some say the second China shock is looming. But it's already here," von der Leyen said.
他们怎么说：欧盟领导人正在考虑赋予更强硬的权力以应对中国的贸易做法，其中包括一种类似于华盛顿用于对中国商品实施广泛关税的权力机制。
What they're saying: EU leaders are considering tougher powers to confront Chinese trade practices, including one resembling the authority Washington has used to impose sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods.
- 协议可能削弱对更严厉措施的推动力，使得成员国“本周犹豫是否要搅乱局面”，大西洋理事会高级研究员、前美国贸易官员丹尼尔·穆拉尼对Axios表示。
• The agreement could dampen momentum for harsher measures, making member states "hesitant this week to rock the boat," Daniel Mullaney, an Atlantic Council senior fellow and former U.S. trade official, tells Axios.
- 华盛顿正在推动贸易伙伴联合起来，共同应对中国的产能过剩。
• Washington is pushing trading partners to join forces against China's industrial overcapacity.
- “如果没有盟友站在你这边，任何一个国家在这件事上都很难取得进展，”穆拉尼说。
• "It's really hard for any one country to make progress on that if you don't have allies on your side," Mullaney says.
数据说明：欧盟在2024年对纯电动汽车征收高额关税后，中国汽车制造商加大了向欧洲的混合动力汽车出口。
By the numbers: Chinese automakers ramped up hybrid shipments to Europe after the EU imposed steep tariffs on fully electric vehicles in 2024.
- 昨日公布的最新数据显示，尽管国内销售下降27%，但中国9月份全球乘用车出口激增64%，达到91.9万辆。What to欧洲的协议可能将压力转移到其他行业 — — 甚至可能转移到其他国家 — — 但并未解决推动中国出口激增的根本失衡问题。
• New data released yesterday shows that China's global passenger vehicle exports surged 64% in September, to 919,000, even as domestic sales fell 27%. What to Europe's deal could shift pressure to other industries — or perhaps even other nations — without addressing the underlying imbalances driving China's export boom.
- 经济学家迈克尔·佩蒂斯周末曾表示，该协议对欧洲制造业整体影响甚微。
• Economist Michael Pettis argued over the weekend that the agreement would do little for European manufacturing overall.
- “欧盟的混合动力汽车生产商将受益，但这是以其他欧盟制造商的利益为代价的，”他在…上写道。
• "EU producers of hybrids will be better off, but at the expense of other EU manufacturers," he wrote on The bottom line:
结论：欧洲的协议可能为其汽车制造商提供喘息空间。但中国的工业实力 — — 以及它对全球制造商施加的压力 — — 并不会消失。
Europe's deal may provide breathing room for its automakers. But China's industrial might — and the pressure it is inflicting on manufacturers around the world — is not going away.