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乌克兰与美国:特朗普与俄罗斯达成柴油协议后,接下来会怎样?Ukraine and the US: What's next after Trump’s diesel deal with Russia?

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美国油价正在上涨 图片:帕特里克·T·法伦/法新社Gas prices are on the rise in the US Image: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP

这引发了乌克兰的愤怒。根据协议,莫斯科被允许向全球市场供应俄罗斯柴油。美国新闻网站Axios报道称,此举是对基辅未能遵守华盛顿要求、停止对俄罗斯炼油厂发动攻击的回应。特朗普还宣称,是时候让“乌克兰换一位总统”了。在乌克兰、美国和欧洲代表在迈阿密进行会谈期间,宣布了出售柴油的协议。

has sparked anger in Ukraine. Under the agreement, Moscow is allowed to supply Russian diesel fuel to global markets. The US news website Axios reported the move came in response to Kyiv's failure to comply with Washington's demands to stop attacks on oil refineries in Russia Trump also declared that it was time "for Ukraine to get a new president." The agreement to sell diesel was announced while talks between Ukrainian, US and European representatives were taking place in Miami.

“我认为我们的团队只是被用作掩护。这肯定不公平,”乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基在不久之后对记者表示,称特朗普的决定是“强大伙伴的软弱决定”。

"I think our team is simply being used as a cover. That is definitely not fair," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told journalists shortly afterwards, describing Trump's decision as "a weak decision by strong partners."

从椭圆形办公室到迈阿密 这 hardly 是基辅与特朗普政府关系中的第一次危机。2025年2月,特朗普在椭圆形办公室告诉泽连斯基:“你没有牌。”白宫的对峙随后导致武器运输和情报共享协议被暂停。据媒体报道,美国特使史蒂夫·威特科夫和贾里德·库什纳也在迈阿密的会谈期间威胁要暂停情报共享,理由是乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击。美国官员否认了这些报道。

From the Oval Office to Miami This is hardly Kyiv's first crisis in its relationship with the Trump administration. In February 2025, Trump told Zelenskyy in the Oval Office "you don’t have the cards." The White House confrontation was followed by a suspension of weapons deliveries and intelligence-sharing agreements. According to media reports, US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner threatened to suspend intelligence sharing during the talks in Miami, too, citing Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries as the reason. US officials have denied the reports.

人们回忆起2025年2月弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基、唐纳德·特朗普和JD·万斯之间的争执。当前的紧张局势唤起了当时白宫的争议,乌克兰全球研究中心“战略XXI”的米哈伊尔·霍恩卡尔在接受德国之声采访时如此表示。然而,他说乌克兰人没有理由惊慌。

Memories are rekindled of the February 2025 spat between Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Donald Trump and JD Vance The current tension recalls the dispute in the White House at the time, says Mykhailo Honchar of the Ukrainian Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI" in an interview with DW. However, he says there is no reason for Ukrainians to panic.

“去年也曾出现过威胁和情报共享的暂停,以及武器供应的中断,”他说。“那时美国人也意识到这对他们造成了太大的伤害,于是不情愿地恢复了一切。”特朗普是在寻找一个‘替罪羊’吗?

"Last year, too, there were threats and suspensions of intelligence sharing, as well as disruptions in weapons supplies," he said. "Then the Americans realized how much this was hurting them, too, and reluctantly resumed everything." Is Trump looking for a 'scapegoat?'

所有接受DW采访的专家都认为,特朗普对乌克兰的威胁与美国11月3日的中期选举之间存在关联。在中期选举中,众议院的全部席位以及参议院大约三分之一的席位将进行改选。

All the experts interviewed by DW see a connection between Trump's threats toward Ukraine and the US midterm elections on November 3. In the midterms, all seats in the House of Representatives and roughly one third of Senate seats are up for election.

基辅国家战略研究所的伊万·乌斯预计共和党将遭遇惨败。他认为主要原因是油价高企。

Ivan Us of the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv expects a crushing defeat for the Republicans. He says the main reason will be high fuel prices.

“特朗普极力想转移人们对高油价与他对伊朗的战争以及霍尔木兹海峡问题相关联这一事实的注意力。他需要一个替罪羊。而他已经决定,乌克兰将成为这个替罪羊,”这位专家表示。

"Donald Trump wants desperately to distract attention from the fact that high prices are linked to his war with Iran and the problems in the Strait of Hormuz. He needs a scapegoat for this. And he has decided that Ukraine will be it," the expert said.

米哈伊洛·荣查尔认为,特朗普与普京的交易的主要受益者是俄罗斯:“这笔柴油交易看起来像是普京对特朗普的伪装请求,要求其对乌克兰施加影响。”荣查尔还将该协议与俄罗斯石油公司卢克石油海外资产可能的出售联系起来。据《纽约时报》报道,这些资产的潜在买家包括与特朗普有关联的投资者。特朗普、俄罗斯和乌克兰:美国是否又改变了立场?要观看此视频,以及危机如何得以解决?

Mykhailo Honchar sees Russia as the main beneficiary of Trump's deal with Putin: "This whole diesel deal looks like a disguised request from Putin to Trump to exert influence on Ukraine." Honchar also links the agreement to a possible sale of the foreign assets of Russian oil company Lukoil. According to The New York Times, potential buyers of these assets include investors with ties to Trump. Trump, Russia and Ukraine: Has the US changed sides again? To view this video , and How can the crisis be resolved?

乌克兰智库“乌克兰棱镜”的奥列克桑德尔·克拉耶夫警告不要采取极端行动。

Oleksandr Kraiev of the Ukrainian think tank Ukrainian Prism warns against taking drastic action. "Slamming the door in anger will certainly not help us.

“愤怒地关上门肯定不会帮助我们。在这种情况下,安全援助和情报共享将被取消。我们承受不起这一点。这可能很困难,甚至有时令人反感,但我们必须保持与美国人的接触,”这位专家表示。

In that case, security assistance and intelligence sharing will be off the table. We cannot afford that. It may be difficult, and sometimes even repulsive, but we have to maintain contact with the Americans," the expert said.

与此同时,乌克兰可以与德国、丹麦、英国和法国合作,使俄罗斯柴油的运输“变得根本不可能”。毕竟,这些油轮在前往美国的途中必须经过这些国家的领海,而这些合作伙伴已经表示他们不会允许这种情况发生。伊万·乌斯建议不要对严厉的言辞过度解读。

At the same time, Ukraine could work with Germany, Denmark, the United Kingdom and France to make deliveries of Russian diesel fuel "simply unrealistic." After all, the tankers would have to pass through these countries' territorial waters on their way to the United States, and the partners have already said they would not allow this. Ivan Us advises against reading too much into the harsh rhetoric.

“你可以在公开场合说你想说的任何话,只要你继续照常行事就行了,”他谈到基辅与华盛顿可能的关系时这样说。乌克兰外交官应与美国共和党人和MAGA运动合作。

"You can say whatever you want in public, as long as you carry on as before," he said of the possible relationship between Kyiv and Washington. Ukrainian diplomats should work with US Republicans and the MAGA movement.

特朗普与普京的协议已经在这些圈子里受到批评,有人担心俄罗斯可能利用柴油贸易的收益来支持伊朗。

Trump's agreement with Putin is already being criticized in those circles, with some raising concerns that Russia could use the proceeds from the diesel trade to support Iran.

美国也不排除对特朗普决定提出法律挑战的可能性。共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯告诉NBC,总统很可能正在违反一项2022年通过的法律,该法律禁止进口俄罗斯石油和其他能源产品。

Us also does not rule out a legal challenge to Trump's decision. Republican Senator Tom Tillis told NBC that the president was likely violating a 2022 law prohibiting imports of Russian oil and other energy products.

伊万·乌斯认为,美国威胁要在选举前切断乌克兰的情报或武器供应,不过是“制造恐惧”罢了。

Ivan Us considers US threats to cut Ukraine off from intelligence or weapons to be little more than "fearmongering" ahead of the elections.

“美国发表这样的言论并不是因为它真的打算采取行动,而是为了让市场相信它即将施加压力,从而推动价格下跌,”乌斯说。11月3日之后会发生什么变化?

"The US makes such statements not because it intends to take action, but to make the markets believe that it is about to exert pressure and thereby drive prices down," Us said. What will change after November 3?

三位专家一致认为,基辅应熬过这一阶段,直至美国11月3日的中期选举结束。奥列克桑德尔·克拉耶夫表示,他确信特朗普可能在选举后在这件事上退步,因为放弃乌克兰就等于对中国示弱。

The three experts agree that Kyiv should ride out the situation until after the US midterm elections on November 3. Oleksandr Kraiev says he is sure that Trump may back down on this issue after the elections, since abandoning Ukraine would mean showing weakness toward China.

米哈伊洛·霍恩查尔指出,特朗普与普京的协议已经受到参议院和众议院共和党人的批评。此外,共和党众议员布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克提出了一项以前美国总统罗纳德·里根命名的两党法案,旨在阻止购买俄罗斯石油。

Mykhailo Honchar points out that Trump's deal with Putin is already being criticized by Republicans in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. In addition, Republican Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick has introduced a bipartisan bill named after former US President Ronald Reagan that would block purchases of Russian oil.

“尽管有各种威胁,甚至可能有些针对基辅的临时措施尝试,特朗普不太可能走得更远。情况不应被描绘成末日景象,”霍恩查尔说。

"Despite all the threats, and perhaps even some attempts to impose temporary measures against Kyiv, it is unlikely that Trump will go any further. The situation should not be portrayed in apocalyptic terms," Honchar said.

他补充说,特朗普的施压也正在让乌克兰及其欧洲伙伴关系更加紧密。

He added that Trump's pressure was also bringing Ukraine and its European partners closer together.