多年来，中国一直向欧洲施压，使其濒临崩溃的边缘，大量涌入的出口产品压缩了利润并导致大量岗位流失，同时向欧盟发出强硬警告，要求其不要反击。
For years, China pushed Europe to the breaking point, flooding it with exports that were crushing profits and killing jobs, while issuing tough warnings to the bloc not to fight back.
如今，北京正在后退，至少暂时如此，以争取更多时间进行进一步谈判。
Now, Beijing is backing down, at least temporarily, as it buys time for further talks.
中国正在接受欧盟关于限制混合动力汽车进口的计划，欧盟官员表示，该计划应能在上周北京会谈后将进口量削减超过一半。此举将为欧洲汽车制造商提供一定保护，包括大众和Stellantis（菲亚特母公司），缓解欧洲因中国汽车进口激增而产生的不满。北京担忧日益增长的担忧最终正推动欧盟官员采取协调行动，尤其是在法国和德国就此问题迈向共同立场之后。
China is going along with a European Union plan to cap hybrid-vehicle imports, which bloc officials said should cut their volume by more than half after talks last week in Beijing. The move will offer some protection to European carmakers, including Volkswagen and Fiat-maker Stellantis, easing frustration in Europe over the flood of Chinese auto imports. Beijing feared the mounting concerns were finally pushing European officials toward concerted action, particularly after France and Germany moved toward a common approach on the issue.
在布鲁塞尔周四举行的备受关注的会议上，欧洲领导人预计将推动采取更多措施以限制中国进口。
In a closely watched meeting Thursday in Brussels, European leaders are expected to push for additional measures to constrain Chinese imports.
乍一看，中国的出口机器看来几乎不可阻挡，去年其贸易顺差达到创纪录的1.2万亿美元。但中国依赖出口来支撑其否则挣扎的经济，这意味着北京无法承担失去进入欧洲广阔且利润丰厚市场的代价。特朗普总统的保护主义倾向进一步提高了赌注。
At first glance, China’s export machine looks all but unstoppable, with its trade surplus last year hitting a record $1.2 trillion. But China’s reliance on exports to support its otherwise struggling economy means Beijing can’t afford to lose access to Europe’s vast and lucrative market. President Trump’s protectionist tilt raises the stakes further.
“美国市场的关闭只会增加欧洲市场的价值，”巴黎雅克·德洛尔研究所贸易与经济安全项目主任埃尔维尔·法布里说。“这是一个欧洲人需要明智利用的小机遇窗口。”北京长期以来在欧洲高层拥有密友，包括一些主张加强与中国贸易的大型工业公司。这些关系使欧盟难以对北京采取更强硬的立场。但近年来，这些公司不仅在中国内部难以盈利，而且看到其国内市场份额被许多欧洲高管视为不公平的中国竞争所侵蚀。
“The closure of the U.S. market has only increased the value of the European market,” said Elvire Fabry, director of the trade and economic security program at the Paris-based Jacques Delors Institute think tank. “It’s a small window of opportunity that the Europeans need to use wisely.”Beijing has long had close friends in high places in Europe, including at big industrial companies that championed greater trade with China. Those relationships made it tough for the EU to take a harder line against Beijing. But in recent years, these firms not only struggled to make money inside China, but also saw their market shares at home eroded by what many European executives viewed as unfair Chinese competition.
欧盟官员此前曾试图通过扩大对华市场准入来重新平衡欧盟与北京的贸易关系，但这种做法如今不再被视为足以抵消中国进口激增所造成的经济和政治损害。
European officials previously sought to rebalance the bloc’s trade relationship with Beijing by expanding its market access to China, but that is no longer viewed as sufficient to offset the economic and political pain caused by an influx of Chinese imports.
“重新平衡更多的是关于向中国销售更少，而不是向中国多销售，”本周，欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩的贸易顾问托马斯·巴尔特在描述他所说的欧盟方法转变时如此表示。“而是关于让中国向我们销售更少。”根据最新计划，欧盟将把混合动力汽车进口量限制为每年35万辆，官员表示这可能使当前进口量减半以上。官员称该配额预计将在未来几个月生效，并在随后的三年里每年增加6%。
“Rebalancing is less about selling more to China,” Tomas Baert, a trade adviser to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, said this week in describing what he said was a shift in the EU’s approach. “It’s about having China sell less to us.”Under the latest plans, the EU will cap hybrid vehicle imports at 350,000 annually, which officials said could cut the current import volume by more than half. The quota is expected to take effect in coming months and would increase by 6% in each of the following three years, officials said.
数月来，北京一直淡化欧洲日益增长的担忧迹象。中国官员因在美国关税问题上通过威胁限制美国获取关键稀土而取得成功而士气高涨。
For months, Beijing played down the growing signs of concern in Europe. Chinese officials were emboldened by their success in countering U.S. tariffs by threatening to limit American access to critical rare earths.
诚然，中国并非欧洲经济问题的唯一根源。僵化的官僚体制、高昂的能源成本，以及先进技术领域的创新与投资不足，同样导致了欧洲竞争力的下滑。虽然欧洲消费者能享受到价格低廉的中国产汽车与机械设备，但工厂及整个供应链可能出现的大规模失业现象，则可能引发政治与社会动荡。
To be sure, China isn’t the only source of Europe’s economic problems. Stifling bureaucracy, high energy costs and a lack of innovation and investment in advanced technologies are also contributing to its lagging competitiveness. And while European consumers benefit from cheap cars and China-made machinery, the threat of even bigger job losses at factories and across supply chains carries potentially destabilizing political and social consequences.
在最近一轮北京会谈之前，欧洲对中国的不满情绪于上周达到顶峰：长期在应对中国竞争策略上存在分歧的法德两国联合提出一项提案，旨在降低对中国商品实施贸易壁垒的门槛。据德国高级官员透露，该提案旨在为欧盟提供类似美国《301条款》的执法工具——该条款赋予美国对贸易伙伴征收关税的广泛权限，有望成为恢复欧盟与中国之间贸易平衡的有力手段。
Before the latest talks in Beijing, Europe’s unhappiness with China culminated last week with a joint proposal from France and Germany—long at odds over how to respond to Chinese competition—that would lower the bar for blocking Chinese goods. According to senior German officials, the proposal aims to give the EU an instrument similar to the U.S.’s Section 301 tool—which gives broad leeway to impose tariffs on trade partners—that could be a powerful weapon to restore balance between the EU and China.
“法德联合提案所体现的内容对中方而言完全难以想象，从某种意义上说也是一种相当危险的政治趋势，”欧洲对外关系委员会亚洲项目主任安德鲁·斯莫尔指出，“因此，对中方而言更关键的举措应是设法瓦解欧洲内部的这一联盟。”据欧盟官员透露，欧洲各国领导人已同意制定两项新的法律工具：其一是所谓的“多元化工具”，旨在降低欧洲企业对单一国家原材料供应的依赖程度；欧盟同时也在筹划相关措施，以保护那些可能遭到中国或其他贸易伙伴经济报复的特定产业与地区。
“What you saw in that Franco-German paper is completely unimaginable and quite a dangerous political trend in a way for China,” said Andrew Small, director of the Asia program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “So your better bet becomes essentially can you start fracturing this coalition in Europe?”European leaders have already agreed to develop two new legal tools, according to the bloc’s officials. One is a so-called diversification instrument, which aims to reduce European companies’ dependencies on one country for the inputs they need. The EU is also preparing measures to support specific industries or regions that China—or other trade partners—might target for economic retaliation.
过去十年间，欧洲对华贸易逆差增长了一倍多，去年这一数值相当于每天约10亿美元。据欧盟委员会统计，若以数量计算，逆差增幅更为显著，同期增长了五倍以上。周三公布的海关数据显示，今年9月中国对欧盟的出口额以美元计价同比增长了25.3%。
Europe’s trade deficit with China more than doubled over the past decade to reach the equivalent of roughly $1 billion a day last year. It rose even faster in volume terms, increasing more than fivefold during the same period, according to the European Commission. In September, China’s exports to the European Union surged by 25.3% in dollar terms from a year earlier, according to customs data released Wednesday.
中国对欧洲及众多其他国家的出口之所以快速增长，部分原因在于中国国内经济的疲软态势。其中最主要的问题是许多中国民众信心不足，不愿将收入用于消费，这迫使制造企业只能依赖出口来维持经营。
The rapid growth of Chinese exports to Europe and many other countries in part reflects China’s domestic economic weaknesses. Chief among them is the pessimism of many Chinese and their unwillingness to spend the money they earn, forcing manufacturers to rely on exports.
近年来，中国领导人习近平将先进制造业发展置于优先位置，由此导致产能过剩现象从水泥等传统行业蔓延至汽车、制药等附加值更高的行业——而这些领域恰恰是欧洲具备竞争优势的领域。
As Chinese leader Xi Jinping has placed priority on advanced manufacturing in recent years, overcapacity has spread from old industries such as cement into higher-value sectors such as cars and pharmaceuticals—both sectors in which Europe competes.
此次欧盟在混合动力汽车问题上作出让步，或许能在短期内缓解中国的压力。不过，在本周会议前夕，欧盟官员及外交人员表示，他们仍预计欧盟将采取更为严厉的措施，甚至可能在化工等其他难以与低价中国进口商品竞争的领域实施相关举措。
The concession on hybrid vehicles might ease some pressure on China in the short term. But EU officials and diplomats said ahead of this week’s meeting that they still expected the bloc to pursue tougher measures—including potentially in other sectors such as chemicals that have struggled to compete with low-cost Chinese imports.
对欧洲而言，维持当前的团结局面是一项挑战。未来数月将举行欧洲议会选举，其中法国的选举结果可能引发局势动荡，这些都可能增加欧盟各国协同行动的难度。
The challenge for Europe is to sustain its current show of unity. European elections scheduled in coming months, including a potentially destabilizing vote in France, could make it harder for EU countries to move together.
柏林Rhodium集团的分析师诺亚·巴金指出，如果中国采取强硬的报复措施，欧盟官员们也可能心生顾虑。
A firm show of retaliation from China could also give officials cold feet, said Noah Barkin, an analyst with Rhodium Group in Berlin.
“无论当前欧洲各国有多么团结，一旦中国发起强力反击，这种团结就会面临考验，”他说。
“No matter how united Europe is today, if China hits back hard, that unity will be tested,” he said.
可联系Brian Spegele（邮箱：Brian.Spegele@wsj.com）与Kim Mackrael（邮箱：kim.mackrael@wsj.com）投稿。
Write to Brian Spegele at Brian. Spegele@wsj.com and Kim Mackrael at kim.mackrael@wsj.com