在过去一周里，由提格雷人民解放阵线（TPLF）领导的一个新联盟旗下的三支民兵武装，一直在埃塞俄比亚北部与埃塞俄比亚国防军（ENDF）交战。这个自称为“埃塞俄比亚人民生存力量联盟”的异质联盟，集结了七个反对阿比·艾哈迈德总理联邦政府的国内武装团体。
Over the past week, three militias from a new alliance, led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) have been fighting the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) in northern Ethiopia The heterogeneous alliance that calls itself the "Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival" brings together seven armed domestic groups that oppose Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's federal government.
然而，埃塞俄比亚国防军描绘了一个远超埃塞俄比亚国界的联盟图景：其总司令、元帅比尔哈努·朱拉指责厄立特里亚、苏丹和埃及支持提格雷人民解放阵线。
However, the ENDF has painted a picture of an alliance that extends far beyond Ethiopia's borders: Its commander-in-chief, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, accused Eritrea Sudan Egypt of supporting the TPLF.
苏丹驳斥了这一指控，称其“毫无根据”。其军政府反唇相讥，指责埃塞俄比亚支持已与苏丹军队交战三年多的快速支援部队（RSF）民兵。厄立特里亚表示，埃塞俄比亚正试图将自身内部冲突的责任推卸给邻国。与此同时，开罗方面也予以断然否认。
Sudan dismissed the allegation as "baseless." Its military government countered with accusations that Ethiopia was supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia that has been fighting Sudan's army for over three years Eritrea said Ethiopia was attempting to shift responsibility for its own internal conflicts onto its neighbors. Cairo, meanwhile, issued a flat denial.
一场涉及“外部参与者”的国内冲突。专家认为，将埃塞俄比亚北部的局势仅仅视为国内事务是不全面的。
A domestic conflict with "external actors" Viewing developments in northern Ethiopia as a domestic affair is not the full picture, according to experts.
德国弗里德里希·艾伯特基金会埃塞俄比亚办公室主任苏珊娜·斯托尔赖特表示：“虽然这主要是一场国内冲突，但由于许多外部参与者直接或间接地卷入其中，它无疑具有外交政策层面的维度。”
"While it is primarily a domestic conflict, it certainly has a foreign policy dimension due to the many external actors directly or indirectly involved," said Susanne Stollreiter, the head of the Ethiopia office of the Germany's Friedrich Ebert Foundation.
斯托尔赖特告诉德国之声，这些参与者在该地区有各自的利益——而这些利益可能会因冲突而得到推进。
Stollreiter told DW that these actors have their own interests in the region — interests that could potentially be advanced by the conflict.
“如果冲突升级，考虑到非洲之角地区存在的各种冲突动态，我甚至认为这可能会真正导致整个地区陷入某种战火之中。”埃塞俄比亚与苏丹、埃及之间的联盟相互映照。长期以来，埃及和苏丹一直对埃塞俄比亚心存不满，因为作为青尼罗河源头的埃塞俄比亚在靠近边境的地方修建了大坝。
"If this conflict escalates, I would even assume that it could truly lead to a kind of conflagration across the region, given the various conflict dynamics here in the Horn of Africa." Mirroring alliances between Ethiopia and Sudan Egypt and Sudan have long harbored grievances against Ethiopia because the source country of the Blue Nile dammed the river just before the border.
为什么埃塞俄比亚的巨型大坝引发了与埃及的紧张关系？观看此视频。自2023年4月以来，苏丹一直陷入一场残酷的内战。冲突双方——苏丹武装部队（SAF）和快速支援部队（RSF）民兵——被认为与目前在埃塞俄比亚对立阵营中作战的伙伴有着联系。
Why Ethiopia's mega dam is causing tensions with Egypt To view this video, and Sudan has been caught up in a brutal civil war since April 2023. Both sides to the conflict — the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF militia — are believed to have ties to partners that are now fighting on opposing sides in Ethiopia.
一方面是苏丹政府和提格雷人民解放阵线（TPLF），后者在2020年至2022年的埃塞俄比亚提格雷战争中基本战败。许多提格雷武装人员流亡到苏丹，在那里组建了“第70军”，并与苏丹武装部队并肩作战，共同对抗快速支援部队。
e hand there's the Sudanese government and the TPLF, which was largely defeated in the 2020–22 Tigray War in Ethiopia. Many Tigrayan fighters went into exile in Sudan where they organized as "Army 70" and fought alongside the SAF against the RSF.
国际危机组织（ICG）非洲之角副项目经理马格努斯·泰勒（Magnus Taylor）表示：“他们在苏丹武装部队击退苏丹东部乃至喀土穆的快速支援部队的过程中发挥了相当重要的作用。这种关系随后得以延续。”
"They played quite an important role in the Sudan Armed Forces pushing back against the RSF in eastern Sudan and even into Khartoum. And then that relationship continued," said Magnus Taylor, Deputy Project Manager, Horn of Africa at the think tank International Crisis Group (ICG).
“埃塞俄比亚联邦政府的问题在于，苏丹似乎与该国最强大的反对派团体之一结成了某种联盟。”苏丹境内的提格雷武装人员和埃塞俄比亚境内的苏丹民兵训练营。今年5月，苏丹政府接待了提格雷人民解放阵线的高级代表以及其他对阿比持批评态度的埃塞俄比亚团体领导人。其中一些团体现在已成为新的七人联盟的一部分。
"The issue that the federal government of Ethiopia has is that it appears that Sudan is in a kind of alignment or an alliance with one of the strongest opposition groups in the country." Tigrayan fighters in Sudan and training camp for Sudan militia in Ethiopia In May, the Sudanese government hosted high-ranking representatives of the TPLF and leaders of other Ethiopian groups that are critical of Abiy. Some of those groups are now part of the new seven-member alliance.
另一方面，是埃塞俄比亚中央政府与苏丹前特种部队——快速支援部队。
On the other hand, there's the Ethiopia's central government and the former Sudanese special unit, the RSF.
今年2月，路透社报道了位于埃塞俄比亚本尚古勒-古马兹州边境地区的一个快速支援部队秘密训练营。据报道，阿拉伯联合酋长国提供了教官、资金和后勤支持——阿联酋否认了这些指控。
In February, the news agency Reuters reported on a secret training camp for RSF fighters in the Ethiopian border region of Benishangul-Gumuz. According to the report, the United Arab Emirates provided instructors, funding, and logistical support — claims the UAE denied.
阿联酋是埃塞俄比亚的亲密盟友，尽管予以否认，但仍被认为是快速支援部队最重要的支持者。厄立特里亚是否卷入了这场最新的冲突？
The UAE is closely allied with Ethiopia and, despite denials, is considered the RSF's most important backer. Is Eritrea involved in the latest conflict?
到目前为止，没有迹象表明苏丹军队或“红海武装力量”（RSF）直接参与了埃塞俄比亚的冲突；也没有证据表明厄立特里亚参与了最近的冲突升级。不过，外界普遍猜测厄立特里亚可能在提格雷战争中与阿比耶的军队并肩作战，但两国领导人在2022年11月签署《比勒陀利亚和平协议》时就已经关系恶化。
So far, there are no signs of direct involvement by the Sudanese army or the RSF in the conflict in Ethiopia. There is no evidence of Eritrea's role in the latest escalation either. But there's no shortage of wild speculation Eritrea fought alongside Abiy's forces in the Tigray War but the leaders of the two countries had had a falling out by the time the Pretoria peace agreement was signed in November 2022.
埃塞俄比亚破裂的提格雷和平协议再次引发了旧伤的复发。专家们长期以来一直认为，尽管厄立特里亚予以否认，但它实际上仍在支持提格雷人民解放阵线（TPLF）。人们对阿比耶的不信任根深蒂固——因为阿比耶明确表示要不惜一切代价（包括使用武力）确保埃塞俄比亚能够通向公海（例如夺取厄立特里亚位于红海的阿萨布港）。
Ethiopia's broken Tigray peace deal opens old wounds Experts have long suggested that Eritrea — despite denials — is now supporting the TPLF. Distrust of Abiy runs deep, given his stated ambitions to secure Ethiopia access to the open sea — by force if necessary, such as by seizing the Eritrean port of Assab on the Red Sea.
国际危机集团（ICG）的分析师马格努斯·泰勒告诉德国之声（DW），厄立特里亚参与最近的战斗是有可能的：“我认为厄立特里亚利用提格雷人民解放阵线及其他反对派组织来遏制埃塞俄比亚的侵略行为，无论是为了获取港口控制权，还是出于其他目的，”泰勒说。
ICG analyst Magnus Taylor told DW that Eritrean involvement in the latest fighting is plausible. "I think the Eritreans have used the TPLF and other opposition groups to deter the perceived risk of Ethiopian aggression, whether that's for access to the port or other reasons," Taylor said.
“如果厄立特里亚在提格雷或阿法尔地区有大规模的军事存在，这或许会成为埃塞俄比亚对厄立特里亚发动更大规模军事行动的借口。厄立特里亚的策略是威慑而非挑衅。”今年，厄立特里亚加强了与开罗的关系，而美国也刚刚解除了对厄立特里亚的制裁。
"Having a large physical presence within Tigray or within Afar even would be, I guess, a justification for the Ethiopians to carry out more extensive military operations on Eritrea. The Eritrean tactic is to deter military action, not to invite it." Asmara has strengthened relations with Cairo this year, and the United States has just let sanctions against Eritrea expire.
为什么埃塞俄比亚和厄立特里亚不能成为朋友呢？非洲之角地区是否有可能爆发更广泛的冲突？
Why can't Ethiopia and Eritrea be friends? Is there a risk of a wider regional conflict in the Horn of Africa?
非洲之角北部与海湾地区接壤，而该地区因伊朗战争而陷入动荡；也门的胡塞武装在伊朗的支持下正在扰乱曼德海峡的航行秩序。在索马里，极端组织“青年党”尽管与胡塞武装存在意识形态上的分歧，仍在不断扩张势力。
Horn of Africa borders the Gulf region in the north, which has lost stability due to the Iran war Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels are also disrupting the Bab al-Mandab Strait. . In Somalia, Al-Shabab is regaining ground, cooperating with the Houthis despite wide ideological differences.
“这些都是重要的贸易路线，目前正成为争端和冲突的焦点；各方都在试图从这种不稳定的局势中获利，”德国弗里德里希·埃伯特基金会（Friedrich Ebert Foundation）埃塞俄比亚办事处负责人斯托尔赖特（Stollreiter）说道。
"These are important trade routes that are being disputed and fought over and everyone is trying to profit from the unstable situation," Stollreiter, the head of the Ethiopia office of the Germany's Friedrich Ebert Foundation, said.
“在这方面，许多势力如今再度崛起其实并非巧合——部分原因在于那些原本在该地区起维护稳定作用的势力已经失去了影响力。尤其是美国，以及因俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争而分心的欧洲国家，对非洲之角的关注程度明显降低了，”斯托尔赖特补充道。海湾国家是否在埃塞俄比亚问题上选边站队了呢？
"In this respect, it is no real coincidence that so many actors are now becoming particularly strong again, also because of the absence of the actors who were otherwise protective powers in the region." The US in particular, but also the Europeans tied down by Russia's war in Ukraine have less of an eye on the Horn of Africa than before, Stollreiter said. Have Gulf powers taken sides in Ethiopia?
阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯近年来因在苏丹和也门支持不同交战方而备受争议，它们的影响力也在不断扩大。不过，为何阿联酋在苏丹问题上的行为没有受到太多关注呢？
The UAE and Saudi Arabia, which are accused of supporting different warring parties in Sudan and Yemen, and have polarized the entire region in recent years, are all the more present. Why has the UAE escaped scrutiny over its role in Sudan?
然而，国际危机集团（ICG）的马格努斯·泰勒（Magnus Taylor）认为，埃塞俄比亚的局势并不会升级为海湾国家之间的代理人战争：“虽然阿联酋是亚的斯亚贝巴（埃塞俄比亚首都）的坚定支持者，但沙特阿拉伯并未大力支持提格雷人民解放阵线（TPLF）或其他任何反对派组织。”自埃塞俄比亚战争爆发以来，目前还没有迹象表明这场内战正在国际化。不过，在局势动荡的非洲之角地区，这种风险确实非常高。这个新的反政府联盟正在改变提格雷地区的冲突格局……
However, ICG's Magnus Taylor does not think that the situation in Ethiopia is at risk of escalating into a proxy war between the Gulf powers. "While the UAE is a strong backer of Addis Ababa, the Saudis are not strongly backing the TPLF or any other opposition group." Whether from the Arabian Peninsula, Sudan, or Eritrea — one week after the outbreak of war in Ethiopia, there are no clear signs that the internal conflict is becoming internationalized. However, in the unstable Horn of Africa, that risk is particularly high. The new rebel alliance transforming the Tigray conflict