周五诺贝尔和平奖得主即将揭晓时，委员会希望其选择能比2019年的获奖者更经得起时间考验。埃塞俄比亚总理阿比·艾哈迈德因结束与邻国厄立特里亚持续20年的边境冲突而获奖——他与总统伊萨亚斯·阿夫韦尔基达成了一项和平协议。然而一年之后，两国间新建立的关系反而促成了与提格雷人民解放阵线（TPLF）的战争，导致多达60万人死亡、数百万人流离失所，双方均犯下暴行，提格雷人民也陷入饥荒。
When the Nobel peace laureate is announced on Friday, the committee will be hoping that its choice ages better than 2019’s. Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, won the prize for ending the 20-year border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea –g a peace agreement with President Isaias Afwerki. A year later, their new relationship facilitated a war with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) that killed as many as 600,000 people, displaced millions more, led to atrocities by both sides, and pushed Tigrayans into famine.
2022年结束该冲突的协议未能得到妥善执行，双方均负有责任；非洲联盟和美国也未能采取有效措施，确保这份协议能够成为持久解决方案。如今，埃塞俄比亚北部暴力冲突再次爆发，昔日的敌对势力正结成奇怪的联盟。上个月，七个埃塞俄比亚地区团体宣布成立“生存联盟”，旨在推翻联邦政府。阿比总理的联盟依靠他的庇护维系，但就目前而言，其表现或许优于他的对手——后者仅因共同的憎恶而联合，内部却存在深刻分歧。
Both sides bear responsibility for failing to properly implement the deal that ended that conflict in 2022, and the African Union and US did little to ensure that a piece of paper became a durable settlement. Now violence has resurged in northern Ethiopia, and old foes are forming bizarre new pacts. Last month, seven Ethiopian regional groups announced an “Alliance for Survival” to remove the federal government. Mr Abiy’s coalition is held together by his patronage, but so far may be faring better than his rivals, united solely by shared loathing of him and riven by deep disputes.
控制提格雷地区的提格雷人民解放阵线此前曾与阿姆哈拉地区的法诺民兵组织交火，双方的领土争端至今未解。埃塞俄比亚指责厄立特里亚支持这一反政府联盟，而厄立特里亚此前曾被指控对提格雷平民实施暴行。尽管阿斯马拉方面予以否认，但有多份报告称厄立特里亚军队已出现在提格雷地区。
The TPLF, which controls Tigray, has previously battled the Fano militia of Amhara, and their territorial dispute endures. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea – previously accused of atrocities against Tigrayan civilians – of backing the rebel alliance. Despite Asmara’s denials, there are multiple reports of Eritrean troops in Tigray.
埃塞俄比亚总理要求这个内陆国家获得通往红海的通道，此举引发了厄立特利亚的担忧和愤怒。厄立特利亚总统控制着与也门胡塞武装控制区相对的海滨地带，这意味着华盛顿目前倾向于与其政权接触，且不太可能对其提出挑战。埃塞俄比亚复杂的内部政治与地缘政治动荡交织在一起。亚的斯亚贝巴还指责埃及和苏丹支持人民解放阵线（TPLF）。
The Ethiopian prime minister demands his landlocked country should gain access to the Red Sea, to Eritrea’s concern and anger. The Eritrean president’s control of the coastline, opposite Houthi-held stretches of Yemen, means that Washington is now keen to engage with his regime and unlikely to challenge him. Ethiopia’s complex internal politics are interlocking with geopolitical turmoil. Addis Ababa also accuses Egypt and Sudan of backing the TPLF.
两国予以否认，但开罗对埃塞俄比亚在尼罗河上修建的复兴大坝极为愤怒。喀土穆同样担心水资源流失，并声称埃塞俄比亚正在支持内战中的快速支援部队（RSF）叛军（亚的斯亚贝巴予以否认）。由于在也门失去立足点，阿拉伯联合酋长国已增加对埃塞俄比亚的支持。
They deny it, but Cairo is furious over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam on the Nile. Khartoum too fears losing water, and says Ethiopia is supporting the RSF rebels in the civil war (Addis Ababa denies it). The UAE, having lost a foothold in Yemen, has increased support for Ethiopia.
当前的担忧不仅在于埃塞俄比亚国内或埃塞俄比亚与厄立特利亚之间爆发全面战争的严重风险，更在于不断升级的区域性多重危机正在冲击本已陷入困境的民众。农业产出尚未从上一次战争中恢复。如今，源于伊朗战争的化肥和燃料危机、援助预算的锐减以及厄尔尼诺现象的影响，正使危机进一步加剧。英国及其他国家必须紧急提供人道主义援助。
The concern now is not merely the grave risk of full-scale war within Ethiopia, or between Ethiopia and Eritrea, but that a spiralling regional polycrisis is hitting already beleaguered communities. Agricultural production has not recovered from the last war. Now the fertiliser and fuel crisis born of the Iran war, the evisceration of aid budgets and the impact of El Niño are intensifying the crisis. The UK and others must urgently provide humanitarian support.
尽管不断升级的暴力局势令人担忧，据报道已有数百人丧生，但这场冲突尚未全面爆发。2020年，提格雷人认为他们必须团结起来，以谋求集体生存。而这一次，提格雷人民解放阵线（TPLF）自身却严重分裂：据称，一些资深指挥官因质疑这场新战争而被捕，士兵和民众也几乎没有意愿卷入这场由派系林立、自私自利且腐败的领导人煽动的冲突。
Though the escalating violence is alarming, with hundreds reportedly killed, this conflict has not yet fully ignited. In 2020, Tigrayans believed they had to unify for collective survival. This time the TPLF itself is deeply split, with veteran commanders reportedly arrested for questioning the new war, and soldiers and civilians showing little appetite for a conflict fuelled by factionalised, self-serving and corrupt leaders.
停火并非不可能，而且必须成为优先事项。埃塞俄比亚需要人道主义援助、重建以及政治格局的重塑。然而，其国内冲突无法脱离更广阔的背景来看待——苏丹、索马里、也门、伊朗及更广泛地区的战争相互交织，造成了毁灭性影响。只要那些野心勃勃的领导人继续说服自己，认为干涉其他地区能够增强自身权力和资源，这场冲突就会变得愈发深刻且难以解决。
A truce is not impossible and must be a priority. Ethiopia needs relief, reconstruction and a political reconfiguration. But its conflict cannot be separated from the broader picture, as wars in Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, Iran and beyond enmesh to devastating effect. The longer that ambitious leaders convince themselves that interference elsewhere can advance their own power and resources, the deeper and more intractable it will become.