由于香港的联系汇率制度与美元挂钩，每当美联储开始加息，香港便会感到阵痛。
With its currency pegged to the US dollar, Hong Kong flinches when the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates.
美联储自2022年3月开始激进加息525个基点，其留下的伤痛至今仍未愈合。随着借贷成本迅速而剧烈地调整，香港房价和恒生指数较2021年末的高点分别暴跌了多达16%和44%。截至6月，香港雇员退休保障制度——强制性公积金（强积金）的管理资产规模达1.7万亿港元（折合2160亿美元），其在2022年遭遇了自全球金融危机以来最惨重的损失。
The scars from the Fed’s aggressive 525-basis-point hiking cycle, which began in March 2022, are still fresh. With borrowing costs adjusting swiftly and sharply, home prices and the Hang Seng Index have tumbled by as much as 16% and 44% from their late-2021 peaks. In 2022, the Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Fund, the city’s employee retirement system that had HK$1.7 trillion ($216 billion) assets under management as of June, suffered its worst loss since the Global Financial Crisis.
因此，当地居民或许是时候仔细审视他们的财富投资组合，以防范下行风险了。一个典型的强积金账户通常会将三分之二的资金配置于股票，21%配置于债务证券，其余则为现金存款。
So it might be time for residents to take a careful look at their wealth portfolios to protect against downside risks. A typical MPF account would have two-thirds of its allocation in equities, 21% in debt securities and the rest in cash deposits.
随着多数期限的美债收益率目前均已超过5%，美国主权债务显得颇具吸引力。香港投资者几乎不面临汇率风险。由于香港的生活成本锚定于中国内地的通缩经济，他们无需过多担心通胀会侵蚀固定收益的回报。此外，这里也没有资本利得税。
With most tenors now yielding above 5%, US sovereign debt is looking appealing. Hong Kong investors face almost no currency risk. They don’t need to worry much about inflation eroding fixed-income payouts, since the city’s cost of living is anchored to China’s deflationary economy. There’s no capital gains tax either.
投资组合还具备相当大的抗跌缓冲垫。在未来一年中，10年期美债收益率需要升至约6%，投资者才会整体出现亏损，因为利息收入有助于抵消债券价格的下跌。与此同时，潜在收益则要大得多：收益率上升一个百分点导致的总体损失将小于2%，而等幅度的收益率下降则可带来约13%的回报（将利息收入与债券增值相结合）。
There’s also a substantial cushion against losses. The 10-year Treasury yield would need to rise to about 6% over the next year for an investor to lose money overall, because the interest payments help offset any decline in the bond’s price. Meanwhile, the potential gains are much larger: A one-percentage-point rise in yields would result in a total loss of less than 2%, while an equivalent decline could deliver a return of about 13%, combining interest income with the increase in the bond’s value.
投资者之所以犹豫不决，其中一个原因是：传统的平衡投资组合（60%投资于股票，40%投资于固定收益产品）在2022年未能实现真正的资产多元化——因为当时股票和债券的价格都大幅下跌。不过，当时的市场估值情况与现在大不相同。2022年初，由于新冠疫情导致货币政策和财政政策极为宽松，股票和债券的价格都处于较高水平。
One reason investors might hesitate is that the classic balanced portfolio, with 60% in equities and 40% in fixed income, failed to offer diversification in 2022, when both stocks and bonds tumbled. But the valuations then were very different. At the onset of 2022, both equities and bonds were expensive after two years of exceptionally easy monetary and fiscal policies in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
四年过去了，从股票的风险溢价（即投资者预期能够获得的额外回报）来看，股票的价格似乎更加昂贵了；而债券则提供了实际的回报（即实际收益）。
Four years on, stocks are looking even more expensive judging by the equity risk premium, or the extra returns investors can expect to earn. On the other hand, bonds are now offering real returns.
事实上，当前的市场状况更类似于2000年初互联网泡沫破裂之前的情况。Gavekal Research的Will Denyer指出：“世纪之交是购买债券的绝佳时机。”
If anything, the current setup is more akin to early 2000 before the dot-com bubble burst. The turn of the century was a great time to buy bonds, noted Gavekal Research’s Will Denyer.
诚然，美联储不太可能再次像上次那样大幅加息；市场预计未来一年的利率涨幅不会超过一个百分点。因此，香港居民可能没有急于调整自己的投资组合。
Granted, the Fed is not expected to replicate the magnitude of its last hiking cycle, with the market pricing in less than a percentage-point increase over the next year. As a result, Hong Kong residents may not feel the urgency to reshuffle their investment portfolios.
然而，自满是不可取的。较高的融资成本、疲软的中国经济以及中国政府对跨境资本流出的严格管控，都是短期内无法消除的负面因素。这些因素很容易引发新的市场危机，投资者需要提前采取避险措施。
But it doesn’t pay to be complacent. Higher financing costs, a weak Chinese economy, and Beijing tightening cross-border capital outflows are all major headwinds that won’t go away soon. It doesn’t take much to create the next perfect storm — and investors need to hedge in advance.
虽然“削减债券利息收入”（即减少债券带来的收益）听起来并不吸引人，但这确实有助于保护财富，为未来市场复苏时重新投资做好准备。对于香港的投资者来说，购买美国国债无疑是一个明智的选择。
Coupon-clipping is not jazzy or exciting. But it preserves wealth so that one has capital to deploy when animal spirits wake up again. For those in Hong Kong, buying US Treasuries is a no-brainer. OPIN