香港预计将在未来几个月面临一波加息潮，但分析师认为，该市房地产市场不太可能遭受与2022-2023年上一轮加息周期同等程度的冲击。
Hong Kong looks set to be hit by a wave of interest rate rises in the coming months, but the city’s property market is unlikely to suffer the same level of damage as during the last rate cycle in 2022-2023, according to analysts.
尽管美国联邦储备委员会本月早些时候已上调基准利率，香港主要银行迄今仍维持利率不变，但若美联储今年晚些时候进一步收紧政策，港银普遍预期将跟随加息。
Though major Hong Kong banks have so far held rates steady despite the US Federal Reserve raising its benchmark rate earlier this month, they are widely expected to increase them if the Fed follows through with further tightening later this year.
摩根士丹利周一在一份报告中指出，美联储重启紧缩政策与中国内地需求疲软的组合，“重燃了令人不安的回忆”，让人想起2022-2023年香港楼价双位数下跌的时期。
The combination of renewed Fed tightening and weaker demand on the Chinese mainland had “revived uncomfortable memories” of 2022-2023, when property prices in Hong Kong plunged by double-digit levels, Morgan Stanley said in a report on Monday.
但分师强调，与2022年相比，香港楼市处于更有利的位置来应对加息带来的冲击，银行存款增加，且稳定的人才流入提振了本地需求。
But analysts stressed that the city’s property market was in a better position to deal with the fallout of higher interest rates than in 2022, with banks carrying more deposits and steady talent inflows boosting local demand.
对即将到来的加息的担忧周二显现出来，越秀地产旗下油塘The Atlas项目单位提供近三成折扣。
Concern over the looming rate increases was visible on Tuesday, when Yuexiu Property offered nearly 30 per cent discounts on the flats at its The Atlas project in Yau Tong.
据中原地产统计，该折扣价平均每平方呎13,988港元，为十年来九龙市区项目最低价，甚至低于2023年长实集团在同区推出的海茵庄园II价格，后者当时曾引发开发商价格战。
The discounted prices – which averaged HK$13,988 per square foot – were the lowest seen for a project in urban Kowloon in a decade, according to Centaline Property. They were even lower than CK Asset’s Coast Line II launch in the same district in 2023, which sparked a price war among developers at the time.
尽管如此，分析师表示，香港楼市前景与2022-2023年有多方面不同，摩根士丹利预期加息冲击将只是该市楼市上行周期中的“小插曲，而非停滞”。
Nevertheless, analysts said the outlook for Hong Kong property was different from 2022-2023 in several ways, with Morgan Stanley saying it expected the rate shock to be “a hiccup, not a stall” for the city’s property upcycle.
首先，摩根士丹利预计即将到来的加息周期将比2022-2023年“短促”且“浅显”。该行指出，美联储未来六个月料加息0.75个百分点，而2022-2023年17个月内累计加息超过5个百分点。
For one thing, Morgan Stanley expects the coming rate increase cycle to be “short” and “shallow” compared with 2022-2023. The Fed is likely to raise rates by 0.75 percentage points over the next six months, whereas in 2022-2023 rates soared by more than 5 percentage points over 17 months, according to the bank.
据摩根士丹利分析，由于香港的贷存比已降至19年来的最低水平，银行对批发融资的需求随之减少，因此利率变动对本地借贷成本的影响可能较以往更为有限。
The pass-through to local borrowing costs is also likely to be more limited than in the past, as Hong Kong’s loan-to-deposit ratio has fallen to a 19-year low, reducing banks’ need for wholesale funding, according to Morgan Stanley.
这家投资银行预计，作为香港大多数房贷定价基准的一个月期香港银行同业拆息，到3月份将上升约0.5个百分点至3.5%；而最优惠利率的涨幅则仅为0.125个百分点。
The investment bank expects the one-month Hibor – an interbank lending rate in Hong Kong, which serves as the basis for most mortgages – to rise about 0.5 percentage points to 3.5 per cent by March, with prime rates increasing by just 0.125 percentage points.
报告指出：“2026年至2027年的情况不会重演2022年至2023年的局面。”
“2026-2027 is not a deja vu of 2022-2023,” the report said.
世邦魏理仕高级董事陆培德也持类似观点。他指出，2022年至2023年间香港楼市遭受的冲击其实是“一系列紧缩政策累积作用的结果”，当时购房者承受了利率持续快速上升带来的压力。
Angus Luk, senior director at CBRE, made a similar distinction, pointing out that the damage caused to Hong Kong property in 2022-2023 “reflected cumulative tightening pressure”, with buyers facing the impact of a prolonged and rapid rate-increase cycle.
目前香港楼市的基础也比2022年至2023年时更为坚实。世邦魏理仕的数据显示，在美联储最新加息之前，2026年的一手房成交量较2023年增长了38.2%，二手房成交量则增长了13.4%。
The property market is also starting from a stronger base than in 2022-2023. Primary-market transactions in 2026 were 38.2 per cent above 2023 levels before the latest Fed rate increase, while secondary transactions were up 13.4 per cent, CBRE data shows.
与此同时，自2023年以来香港租金水平上涨了10.6%；两口之家的月收入中位数也增长了10%，达到33,000港元（约合4,200美元）。
Rents, meanwhile, have risen 10.6 per cent since 2023, while the median monthly income for two-person households has increased 10 per cent to HK$33,000 (US$4,200), according to CBRE.
不过陆培德仍预计，二手房市场将出现价格盘整、成交量放缓以及议价空间扩大的现象。他表示，开发商更有可能采取打折促销或提供融资优惠的方式，而非全面下调房价。
However, Luk still expects price consolidation, slower transactions and wider negotiation margins in the secondary market. Developers were likely to use discounts and financing incentives rather than broad headline price cuts, he said.
摩根士丹利预计，今年第四季度香港房价将基本持平，2027年则有望上涨5%。该机构指出，持续流入的人才正助力维持香港的房地产需求。
Morgan Stanley expects property prices to stay broadly flat in the fourth quarter before rising 5 per cent in 2027. Steady talent inflows were helping to sustain demand for property in Hong Kong, it noted.
报告还提到，若中东局势趋于缓和、油价回归正常水平且中国内地经济再平衡进程加快，明年香港房价有望上涨10%，并重新达到2018年的峰值水平。
In a bull case, prices could gain 10 per cent next year and return to their 2018 peak if Middle East tensions ease, oil prices normalise and mainland economic rebalancing accelerates, it added.
瑞银集团在周一发布的研究报告中持更为谨慎的态度，指出内地投资者对香港房地产资产的兴趣依然有限。
UBS struck a more cautious note, saying interest from mainland investors in Hong Kong property assets remained limited in a research report published on Monday.
这家欧洲银行预计，第四季度香港房价将出现适度回调，因此2026年全年房价涨幅预计在5%至10%之间，低于今年迄今为止12%的增幅。
The European bank expects home prices to correct moderately in the fourth quarter, putting full-year 2026 growth at 5 per cent to 10 per cent, below the 12 per cent gain so far this year.