摩根士丹利的最新报告指出，尽管高利率在香港和纽约的房地产市场上都产生了压力，但该行看好未来几个月亚洲金融中心——尤其是香港——的上涨潜力，特别是办公楼板块。
Higher interest rates have weighed on property markets in both Hong Kong and New York, but Morgan Stanley sees greater upside potential in the Asian financial hub – particularly the office segment – in the months ahead, according to its latest report.
美国投资银行指出了两个世界主要金融中心之间的相似之处，指出香港的货币政策与美联储步伐一致，而两座城市都面临有限的土地供应、昂贵的住房以及与金融部门紧密相关的办公楼需求。
The US investment bank highlighted the similarities between two of the world’s leading financial centres, pointing out that Hong Kong’s monetary policy moved in lockstep with the US Federal Reserve, while both cities faced limited land supply, expensive housing and office demand that was closely tied to the finance sector.
摩根士丹利香港及印度房地产研究主管普拉文·乔达里领导的作者团队表示：“利率上升在这两座城市的传导效果不同。稀缺性比利率更重要。我们更看好香港的房东，而非纽约市的办公楼业主或香港的开发商。”报告称，新冠疫情之后数年的高空置率结束后，两座城市的办公楼周期都出现了转变。该报告补充称，恢复措施集中在最优位置。
“Higher rates transmit differently into these two cities,” said a team of authors led by Praveen Choudhary, head of Hong Kong and India property research at Morgan Stanley. “Scarcity matters more than rates. We prefer Hong Kong landlords over New York City office owners or Hong Kong developers.”The office cycle had turned in both cities after years of elevated vacancy rates following the Covid-19 pandemic, the report said. Recovery was concentrated in the best locations, it added.
摩根士丹利表示，第二季度2026年曼哈顿甲级办公楼市场的空置率同比下降2.1个百分点至10.6%，租赁水平恢复至疫情前水平，而租金上涨4.3%。
The vacancy rate in Manhattan’s class A office market fell 2.1 percentage points year on year to 10.6 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, bringing leasing back to pre-pandemic levels, while rents rose 4.3 per cent, Morgan Stanley said.
曼哈顿的办公楼资本化率在本年第二季度约为8.5%，接近2003年以来观察到的区间上端。
Manhattan’s office capitalisation rate stood at about 8.5 per cent in the second quarter of the year, near the upper end of the range seen since 2003.
在香港的整体优质办公楼市场，8月份的空置率从前年同期的13.5%下降至12.5%。中环领导了这次恢复，租金上涨7.3%，空置率从11.2%下降至7.8%。然而，资本价值仍然低于峰值水平约50%。
In Hong Kong’s overall prime office market, the vacancy rate dropped to 12.5 per cent in August from 13.5 per cent a year earlier. Central led the recovery, with rents rising 7.3 per cent as vacancy declined to 7.8 per cent from 11.2 per cent. Capital values, however, remained 50 per cent below their peak levels.
“更为重要的相似点在于各个城市内部的情况，”报告指出。“曼哈顿表现最好的子市场目前的空置率约为5%至10%，而表现较差的区域空置率则仍维持在15%至19%的水平。”
“The more important similarity is within each city,” the report said. “Manhattan’s strongest submarkets are already at roughly 5 to 10 per cent vacancy, while weaker areas remain in the mid- to high teens.”
报告还指出，香港也呈现出同样的趋势。“中环地区的供应紧张状况最先显现，而九龙东地区则依然面临严重的供过于求问题，”报告称。“因此我们认为，地理位置与建筑品质比整体空置率更为关键。”摩根士丹利预计，香港的写字楼市场走势将与纽约类似。
It added that Hong Kong showed the same pattern. “Central is tightening first, while Kowloon East remains materially oversupplied,” the report said. “We therefore think location and building quality matter more than the headline vacancy rate.”Morgan Stanley said it expected Hong Kong’s office property cycle to follow a path similar to New York’s.
“这两座城市的运营基本面恢复速度均快于资产价值，”报告指出。“我们认为这一趋势对那些拥有优质写字楼资产的香港业主而言尤为重要。”
“Operating fundamentals are recovering faster than asset values in both cities,” the report said. “We think this set-up is particularly relevant for Hong Kong landlords with exposure to prime office.”