卡拉·安娜，吉尔·劳利斯，耶路撒冷——英国与美国的领导人虽未提供任何证据，却暗示伊朗在本周发生的两起重大安全事件中扮演了角色：一起是美国驻英军事基地附近发生的逮捕事件，该基地被用于对伊朗实施军事打击；另一起则是一架飞往以色列的飞机驾驶舱内发生的袭击事件。
CARA ANNA, JILL LAWLESS JERUSALEM — The leaders of Britain and the United States have suggested, without giving evidence, that Iran played a role in two major security incidents this week, the arrests near a U.S.-run military base in England used in the war against Tehran and the attack in the cockpit of an Israel-bound plane .
截至周五，尚未出现任何能证实伊朗与此事相关的证据。英国方面也未公布任何能将伊朗与这些涉恐逮捕事件联系起来的证据。一位未经授权向媒体发言的官员称，目前同样没有证据表明伊朗与驾驶舱袭击事件有关。
As of Friday, no confirmed connection to the Islamic Republic had emerged. Britain has not made public any evidence linking Iran to the air-base arrests on terrorism-related charges. And an official who was not authorized to speak to the media said there is currently no evidence of a link between Iran and the cockpit attack.
相关调查尚处于初期阶段。倘若伊朗与英国境内的逮捕事件确有关联，这将印证伊朗政府数十年来一直推行的战略：即通过规模较小、成本相对较低的袭击手段来骚扰并扰乱实力更强的对手及其经济体系，同时制造盟友间的矛盾。目前这一战略在霍尔木兹海峡地区正得到体现。
The investigations are in the early stages. If an Iranian link to the Britain arrests is confirmed, it would underline a strategy that Iran’s government has promoted for decades, using smaller, relatively low-cost attacks to needle and disrupt more powerful adversaries and their economies while causing friction among allies. That strategy is currently on display in the Strait of Hormuz.
如果证实伊朗确实参与了针对迪拜航空航班的袭击，那将意味着该战略又上升到了一个极具危险性的新阶段。
If it is confirmed that Iran played a role in targeting the FlyDubai flight, that would represent a dangerous new level in that approach.
伊朗方面已否认与周日发生在费尔福德皇家空军基地附近的逮捕事件有关。该基地曾被美国轰炸机用来对伊朗实施打击。伊朗领导人召见了英国大使，要求英方给出官方解释。
Iran has denied involvement in Sunday’s arrests close to the RAF Fairford air base, which has been used by U.S. bombers to strike Iran. Iranian leaders summoned Britain’s ambassador and called on the British government to provide an official explanation.
周四，警方以涉嫌策划恐怖袭击为由逮捕了一名25岁的英伊双重国籍男子，另有五名嫌疑人则获准保释。警方称，他们在基地附近的货车中发现了大量助燃剂——汽油，但未发现爆炸物。
Police on Thursday arrested a 25-year-old dual U.K.-Iranian citizen on suspicion of plotting a terror attack, while five other suspects were released on bail. Detectives said they found a quantity of an accelerant — gasoline — in vans near the air base, but no explosives.
英国首相安迪·伯纳姆表示，英国“有明显迹象”表明伊朗与此事件有关，但并未透露具体细节。
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said the U.K. sees “strong indications” that Iran played a part in the incident but did not provide details.
在迪拜航空遇袭事件中，对于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普提出的“副驾驶可能与伊朗有关联”的说法，伊朗方面尚未作出回应。当被问及是否已获悉任何相关线索时，特朗普表示：“根据我所听到的信息，答案应该是肯定的，不过我们目前正在调查中。”但他并未作进一步说明。
In the FlyDubai attack, Iran has not commented on U.S. President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the co-pilot might have links to Iran. Asked whether he had been briefed about any links, Trump said, “I would say the answer, based on what I’m hearing, is yes, but we’re working on it right now.”He did not elaborate.
即便是以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡——这位世界上对伊朗批评最为激烈的领导人之一——也认为现在下定论还为时过早。
But even Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, one of the world’s most vocal critics of Iran, has said it’s too soon to say.
由于各国政府并未公开关键信息，比如嫌疑人的身份或可能的作案动机（在英国，此类信息在警方调查期间均不会对外公布），各种猜测便趁机滋生。
With governments not sharing key details — such as suspects’ identities or possible motives, which are not made public during active police investigations in Britain — speculation risks filling the void.
伦敦皇家联合军种国防研究所的高级研究员安东尼奥·朱斯托齐指出：“在缺乏确凿证据的情况下，尤其是政界人士和媒体往往倾向于将一切归咎于伊朗。虽然其中不少说法属实，但也未必全对。”他还表示，伊朗方面并未否认其在海外设有秘密组织。
“When you have this kind of gray area where evidence is lacking, there’s a tendency, especially (by) politicians, the media, etc., to attribute everything to Iran,” said Antonio Giustozzi, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defense think tank. “And much of it is true, but not necessarily all of it is true.”He said the Iranians do not deny that they have cells abroad.
朱斯托齐认为，像英国费尔福德空军基地发生的事件这类案例，其实符合一种攻击模式：通过制造压力向美国的盟友传递这样一个信号——“我们虽未做出什么过激举动，但要做些恶劣的事也并非难事”。
Incidents such as the one at RAF Fairford appear to fit a pattern of attacks designed to apply pressure and signal to U.S. allies that “in this case we did not do anything too terrible, but it wouldn’t be difficult to do something terrible,” Giustozzi said.
不过他怀疑伊朗是否真的参与了迪拜航空事件：“从战略层面来看，此时将以色列牵扯进来对伊朗毫无益处，只会让局势更加复杂。”就在上周，伊朗官员还公开将“非对称战争”奉为核心战略。
He doubted, however, that Iran was involved in the FlyDubai incident: “In terms of strategy, dragging Israel in now brings zero benefit to Iran and only complicates the situation.”As recently as the past week, Iranian officials have openly promoted asymmetric warfare as a central strategy.
据伊朗国家通讯社IRNA报道，伊朗军方高级发言人阿博尔法兹尔·谢卡尔奇少将说道：“所谓非对称战争，就是用成本更低、更为简易却高效实用的防御手段来对抗敌人昂贵的重型武器，并最终取得胜利。”
“Asymmetric warfare means confronting the enemy’s expensive heavy weapons with lower costs and simpler, but more effective and practical defense equipment, and still achieving victory,” a senior Iranian military spokesperson, Brig. Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi, said in comments reported by Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency.
这种战术以“自我牺牲、信仰与精神力量”为基础，他指出，而常规战争在这种战术面前显得不堪一击。
Such tactics are based on “self-sacrifice, faith and spirituality,” he said, and called conventional warfare vulnerable to this approach.
1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命后，包括美国在内的诸多传统盟友都切断了对伊朗的军事及其他援助，于是德黑兰开始采用这种战术。在20世纪80年代的两伊战争期间，以及今年2月28日美国和以色列发动袭击后爆发的当前冲突中，伊朗都大力推行非对称作战策略，尤其是大量使用无人机。
Tehran turned to that approach after the Islamic Revolution there in 1979 cut off military and other support from previous allies, including the United States. Iran embraced asymmetric efforts, notably the use of drones, during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s and again during the current war that began with U.S. and Israeli attacks on Feb. 28.
伊朗的战术手段包括：对境内设有美军基地的周边国家发动密集的无人机袭击；攻击试图通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只；还利用小型攻击艇和水雷威胁该海峡安全。此外，受伊朗指使的武装代理人也在黎巴嫩南部、也门、加沙地带及伊拉克发动了多次袭击。
Iran’s tactics have included a barrage of drone attacks against regional neighbors that host U.S. bases and assaults on ships trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Small attack boats and mines have also menaced the strait. Armed proxies of Iran have launched attacks in southern Lebanon, Yemen, Gaza and Iraq.
苏凡中心智库今年早些时候指出：“德黑兰深知自己无法在常规高强度战争中击败以色列或美国。因此，伊朗政权似乎正在采取一种非对称且以消耗敌方实力为目的的应对方式，其目的并非取得战场上的决定性胜利，而是为了维持自身生存。”
“Tehran understands that it cannot defeat Israel or the United States in a conventional, high-intensity war. Instead, the regime seems to be deploying an asymmetric and attritional response designed not for decisive battlefield victory, but rather endurance and survival,” the Soufan Center think tank wrote earlier this year.
伊朗已承认在此次冲突中实施了部分直接的军事或准军事袭击，包括对美国军舰的攻击。不过，针对迪拜航空航班及英国境内事件，伊朗官方所暗示的参与方式更为间接，这导致相关事实难以核实，也便于伊朗予以否认。
Iran has acknowledged some direct military or paramilitary attacks during the war, including against U.S. warships . But the kind of involvement authorities have suggested about the FlyDubai and England incidents is more indirect, making it difficult to confirm and easier to deny.
这些指控引发了人们的担忧：自2022年2月俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰以来，外界普遍指责俄方策划了多起针对欧洲的破坏活动，而俄罗斯始终予以否认。
The allegations echo concerns about the acts of sabotage in Europe that Russia has been widely accused of backing since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Moscow has denied them.
过去，德黑兰也曾面临类似指控。去年，负责维护相关事件数据库的华盛顿近东政策研究所学者马修·莱维特写道：“为降低自身遭受报复性攻击的风险，伊朗特工开始雇佣犯罪团伙，按照德黑兰的指令实施袭击。”
Tehran has faced similar allegations in the past. In an effort to “mitigate the risk of retaliatory attacks against Iran, Iranian agents have taken to hiring criminal proxies to carry out attacks at Tehran’s behest,” Matthew Levitt with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who maintains a database of incidents, wrote last year.
在一起备受关注的案件中，美国司法部于2024年11月披露了一起伊朗雇凶杀害特朗普的阴谋，起诉了一名男子，该男子称曾在当月大选前受一名政府官员指使。伊朗政府否认了该报道，并称其为旨在使关系复杂化的阴谋。
In one high-profile case, the U.S. Justice Department in November 2024 disclosed an Iranian murder-for-hire plot to kill Trump, charging a man who said he had been tasked by a government official before that month’s election. Iran’s government rejected the report and called it a plot to complicate relations.
最近，英国官员表示，与伊朗有关联的代理人是英国和其他欧洲国家一系列纵火及其他袭击事件的幕后黑手，其中许多针对犹太社区或伊朗伊斯兰神权政体的反对者。2025年10月，英国军情五处（MI5）国内情报机构负责人表示，该机构在过去一年追踪了20多起伊朗支持的“潜在致命”阴谋。
More recently, U.K. officials say proxies linked to Iran have been behind a string of arson and other attacks in Britain and other European countries, many of them targeting the Jewish community or opponents of Iran’s Islamic theocracy. In October 2025, the head of the MI5 domestic intelligence service said his agency had tracked more than 20 “potentially lethal” Iran-backed plots in the past year.
在英国，几名年仅十几岁的嫌疑人因针对犹太教堂和犹太救护车的纵火袭击被起诉。官员表示，这些犯罪往往只为少量金钱实施，被捕者可能对与伊朗的关联知之甚少或完全不知情。这也与欧洲被指由俄罗斯支持的袭击手法相呼应。
Several suspects as young as their teens have been charged in the U.K. over arson attacks targeting synagogues and Jewish ambulances. Officials say the crimes are often carried out for small sums of money, and that those arrested may have little or no knowledge of the link to Iran. That, too, has echoed alleged Russia-backed attacks in Europe.
7月，英国取缔了“右道同伴伊斯兰运动”（IMCR），称其为袭击背后的伊朗代理组织。该组织今年早些时候在网络上出现，并声称对比利时和荷兰的犹太教堂袭击负责。
In July, Britain banned the Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Right, or IMCR, which it said is an Iran proxy group behind the attacks. The IMCR sprang up online earlier this year and has claimed responsibility for synagogue attacks in Belgium and the Netherlands.
劳勒斯在伦敦报道。美联社记者萨姆·梅德尼克在以色列特拉维夫供稿。
Lawless reported from London. Associated Press writer Sam Mednick in Tel Aviv, Israel, contributed.