迪拜航空航班遇袭事件引发了人们的担忧：随着与美国及以色列的冲突持续，伊朗可能会增加此类隐蔽且难以溯源的袭击行动。
The FlyDubai stabbing is contributing to concerns that Iran could increase covert and deniable attacks as the conflict with the United States and Israel drags on.
与此同时，英国首相安迪·伯纳姆表示，有“大量迹象”表明伊朗与一起涉嫌恐怖袭击的阴谋有关。该阴谋针对的是英国费尔福德空军基地，美军在对伊军事行动中曾使用该基地。此后，反恐警察逮捕了一名拥有英国和伊朗双重国籍的男子，怀疑其策划了恐怖活动。
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, meanwhile, said there are "strong indications" Iran played a role in a suspected terror plot near RAF Fairford, the British air base used by U.S. forces during operations against Iran. Counterterrorism police have since arrested a dual UK-Iranian national on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts.
这两起疑似袭击事件引发了人们对伊朗战争策略是否发生转变的疑问。不过专家提醒，不应将这两起事件视为伊朗参与其中的同等证据，也不能据此认定德黑兰已改变其战术手段。
The two suspected attacks are raising questions over whether Iran's war strategy is shifting, but experts caution not to treat the incidents as equally indicative of Iranian involvement — or evidence yet that Tehran has changed its tactics.
印度总理称：迪拜航空飞行员展现了“最高级别的勇气” 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普称，目前掌握的初步信息显示，这起发生在飞往以色列的迪拜航空航班上的袭击事件很可能与伊朗有关。据称，一名副驾驶刺伤机长后试图使这架载有180多名乘客的飞机坠毁。
FLYDUBAI PILOT SHOWED WORLD 'THE HIGHEST FORM OF COURAGE,' INDIA'S PM SAYS President Donald Trump said early information he has received points to a possible Iranian connection to the attack aboard an Israel-bound FlyDubai flight, where a co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain and attempted to crash the aircraft with more than 180 people aboard.
阿联酋及以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡均将迪拜航空事件定性为恐怖主义行为，但阿联酋官方尚未公开将此次袭击归咎于伊朗。目前两起事件的调查均尚未证实伊朗政府直接下令实施袭击，伊朗方面也否认与费尔福德基地事件有关。
The United Arab Emirates and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have described the FlyDubai incident as terrorism, but UAE authorities have not publicly attributed the attack to Iran. Neither investigation has publicly established that the Iranian government directed the attacks, and Iran has denied involvement in the Fairford case.
美国战略与国际研究中心战争、非常规威胁及恐怖主义项目主任丹尼尔·拜曼指出，费尔福德基地事件更符合伊朗近期雇佣特工及利用中间人实施行动的模式。
Daniel Byman, director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the Fairford case fits more closely with Iran's recent use of hired operatives and other intermediaries.
“英国空军基地遭袭事件确实符合伊朗近期的行动模式，”拜曼对福克斯新闻网说道，同时强调目前关于调查情况仍有诸多未知之处。
"The attack on the airbase in the United Kingdom does fit more recent patterns," Byman told Fox News Digital, while stressing how much remains unknown about the investigation.
卢比奥证实：英国恐怖阴谋涉及“外国势力” 相比之下，迪拜航空袭击事件则属于更为显著的策略转变。
RUBIO CONFIRMS 'FOREIGN ACTOR' INVOLVED IN UK TERROR PLOT The FlyDubai attack would be a more significant departure.
“这大不相同，而且至少从伊朗过去的行为来看，我们没有见过它这样做，”拜曼说。“我认为伊朗参与此事是有可能的，但根据伊朗一贯的行事方式，这似乎要牵强得多。”不过，围绕这些袭击的不确定性，也部分体现了伊朗数十年来逐步形成的一项更广泛战略之所以颇具吸引力的原因：利用代理武装、秘密特工、犯罪网络和其他中间人来威胁远在其边界之外的对手，同时让人更难确认德黑兰本身在其中的角色。
"That is quite different, and that is something that Iran in the past, at least we haven't seen Iran do," Byman said. "It is plausible to me that Iran is involved, but that seems like much more of a stretch based on Iran's traditional way of operating." But the uncertainty surrounding the attacks also illustrates part of the appeal of the broader strategy Iran has spent decades developing: using proxies, covert operatives, criminal networks and other intermediaries to threaten adversaries far beyond its borders while making Tehran's own role more difficult to establish.
马修·莱维特曾任美国财政部和联邦调查局反恐官员，现任华盛顿研究所莱因哈德反恐与情报项目负责人。他说，伊朗越来越希望在自己与执行海外行动的人员之间拉开更大距离。
Matthew Levitt, a former Treasury and FBI counterterrorism official who now directs the Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at the Washington Institute, said Iran has increasingly sought to put more distance between itself and the people carrying out overseas operations.
“通常情况下，伊朗不会承认自己参与了这类袭击，因为它希望留有合理的否认空间，”莱维特说。
"Typically Iran does not admit that it's involved in these types of attacks because it wants reasonable deniability," Levitt said.
“伊朗利用恐怖主义有若干优势，”拜曼说。“其中一点是，通常存在一定的否认空间。”“恐怖主义让伊朗的触角能够延伸得更远，”他补充道。不过，莱维特更直白地指出了它与常规战争的区别。
"There are several advantages for Iran to using terrorism," Byman said. "One is that there is often a degree of deniability." "Terrorism gives Iran a lot more reach," he added. Levitt, however, put the distinction with conventional warfare more bluntly.
“如果伊朗向你发射无人机或导弹，你知道它从哪里来，也知道该向哪里反击，”他说。“但如果伊朗利用代理武装，招募人员并以秘密方式采取行动，你就未必能轻易把矛头指向伊朗，也未必能确切知道是谁干的。”莱维特说，这种能力之所以重要，部分原因在于，伊朗并不具备直接与美国及其盟友抗衡的常规军事实力。
"If Iran shoots a drone or a missile at you, you know where it came from and you know where to shoot back," he said. "But if Iran uses proxies, and recruits people and does things in a covert manner, it might not be so easy to point a finger back at Iran or to know exactly who did it." That capability matters in part because Iran does not have the conventional military strength to match the United States and its allies directly, Levitt said.
“他们没有能力在全面动能战争中进行士兵对士兵、飞机对飞机的较量，”他说，“但他们在非对称战争和秘密恐怖活动方面极其有效——如果事实证明此次袭击属于后者的话。”英国空军基地恐袭嫌疑人获保释，伊朗否认有关联近期的美国司法案件表明，这一策略的适用范围可以有多广。联邦案件指控伊朗特工试图招募杀手刺杀美国官员，并利用东欧有组织犯罪头目，在纽约策划了一起针对伊朗裔美国记者兼异见人士马西哈·阿里内贾德的雇凶杀人阴谋。
"They just don't have the capability to fight soldier to soldier, airplane to airplane in an all-out kinetic war, but they're extremely effective at asymmetric warfare, at covert terrorist activity, if that's what this proves to be," he said. UK AIRBASE TERROR SUSPECTS BEING RELEASED ON BAIL AS IRAN DENIES CONNECTION Recent U.S. prosecutions have shown how far that playbook can extend. Federal cases have accused Iranian operatives of seeking to recruit hitmen to kill U.S. officials and using Eastern European organized crime figures in a murder-for-hire plot targeting Iranian-American journalist and dissident Masih Alinejad in New York.
这些行动依赖于同样的基本优势：德黑兰可以在海外针对目标采取行动，而无需发动立即将伊朗暴露为侵略者的常规攻击。目前的问题是，当前冲突是否给了伊朗进一步推行该策略的理由。
Those operations relied on the same basic advantage: Tehran could pursue targets overseas without launching a conventional attack that immediately identified Iran as the aggressor. The question now is whether the current conflict gives Iran reason to push that strategy further.
利维特表示，德黑兰可能会在海外策划行动，以证明伊朗能够在常规战场之外施加更广泛的代价，从而向西方政府施压，促使其结束冲突。
Levitt said Tehran could pursue overseas plots in an effort to pressure Western governments to end the conflict by demonstrating that Iran can impose costs far beyond the conventional battlefield.
他表示，如果费尔福德和迪拜航空事件最终被证实与德黑兰有关，它们将显得格外突出，因为与伊朗在海外更常采取的暗杀、绑架、枪击和小规模爆炸行动相比，这些事件涉及更艰难的目标和可能更具雄心的战术。
And if Fairford and FlyDubai are ultimately tied to Tehran, he said, they would stand out because they involve harder targets and potentially more ambitious tactics than the assassinations, kidnappings, shootings and smaller-scale bombings Iran has more commonly pursued overseas.
“也许这就是新常态，伊朗想要证明它能够施加更高的代价，”利维特说。然而，比曼指出，德黑兰可能会保持克制，原因有几方面。
"Perhaps this is the new normal, and Iran wants to demonstrate that it can exact a higher cost," Levitt said. Byman, however, pointed to several reasons Tehran could exercise restraint.
他表示，伊朗已经拥有其他向华盛顿及其盟友施压的手段，而针对美国人的恐怖袭击可能会适得其反，使美国公众舆论团结起来，支持对德黑兰进行进一步升级的打击。美国和以色列对伊朗高级情报和安全官员的打击，也可能扰乱了德黑兰在海外行动所需的某些网络。
Iran already has other ways to pressure Washington and its allies, while a terrorist attack against Americans could backfire by uniting U.S. public opinion behind further escalation against Tehran, he said. U.S. and Israeli strikes against senior Iranian intelligence and security officials may also have disrupted some of the networks Tehran would need for overseas operations.
“如果伊朗想要走得更远，那么恐怖主义确实会成为更多选项之一，”比曼说。
"If Iran wants to go further, then terrorism does become more of an option," Byman said.