巴黎——尽管经济困境日益加剧，普通俄罗斯民众和精英阶层也愈发不安，但前总理米哈伊尔·卡西亚诺夫在10月3日表示，总统弗拉基米尔·普京尚未准备好就结束乌克兰战争进行谈判。
PARIS - Despite growing economic trouble and rising unease among ordinary Russians and the elite, President Vladimir Putin is not ready to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, his former prime minister said on Oct 3.
在接受法新社采访时，2000年至2004年担任俄罗斯总理的卡西亚诺夫表示，他认为自己的前任上司明白2022年入侵乌克兰是一个错误，但仍会坚持既定的路线。
Speaking to AFP in an interview, Mikhail Kasyanov, Russia’s prime minister from 2000 to 2004, said he believed his former boss understood he had made a mistake by invading Ukraine in 2022 but would persist with the course he had set.
“他犯了一个自己都无法承认的错误，”68岁的卡西亚诺夫在巴黎说道。
“He made a mistake that he cannot bring himself to admit,” Kasyanov, 68, said in Paris.
“他相信安全部门提供的报告，认为乌克兰很弱。”这位前总理表示，他并不相信战争会在2027年结束，并补充说，普京正因美伊冲突导致的高油价，以及美国与欧洲在如何应对克里姆林宫乌克兰问题上的分歧而士气高涨。“普京当然正在欣喜若狂地搓着手，”卡西亚诺夫说。
“He believed the reports from his security services that Ukraine was weak.”The former prime minister said he was not convinced the war would end in 2027, adding that Putin was buoyed by high oil prices resulting from the US-Iran conflict and by disagreements between the United States and Europe over how to deal with the Kremlin on Ukraine. “Putin is, of course, rubbing his hands with glee,” Kasyanov said.
“他显然认为自己可以在不做出任何让步的情况下继续战争。而且他坚信自己正在对乌克兰进行一场消耗战并取得了胜利。”他警告称，即将到来的冬季可能对乌克兰尤为残酷，并敦促西方国家通过团结一致向克里姆林宫施加“心理压力”，同时紧急向基辅提供“爱国者”导弹拦截系统，以保护领空免受俄罗斯对民用基础设施日益加剧的袭击。
“He clearly believes he can continue the war without making any concessions. And he is convinced that he is winning a war of attrition against Ukraine.”He warned that the coming winter could be particularly brutal for Ukraine, urging Western countries to apply “psychological pressure on the Kremlin” by closing ranks, and urgently supply Kyiv with Patriot missile interceptors to protect skies from intensifying Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure.
普京曾是一名克格勃特工，将于10月7日年满74岁。他一直坚称，数百万俄罗斯人支持莫斯科发动的战争。9月，他的执政党在选举中赢得了创纪录的绝对多数席位。批评人士称此次选举受到严格控制，而普京则将其描绘为对战争行动的支持。“一种宿命感”卡西亚诺夫于2022年离开俄罗斯，目前在里加流亡生活。2023年，莫斯科将其列为“外国代理人”，这一称谓让人联想到苏联时期的“人民之敌”标签。
Putin, a former KGB agent who turns 74 on Oct 7, has insisted that millions of Russians support Moscow’s war. In September, his ruling party won a record supermajority in elections that critics said were tightly controlled, with Putin portraying the vote as a show of support for the hostilities. ‘Sense of fatalism’Kasyanov, who left Russia in 2022, lives in exile in Riga. In 2023, Moscow designated him a “foreign agent”, a term reminiscent of the Soviet-era label “enemy of the people”.
克里姆林宫的批评者表示，他仍与俄罗斯统治精英中的部分成员保持联系。“那里弥漫着恐惧——我指的是统治阶层。“每个人都希望战争结束。绝大多数人都是如此，”他说。
The Kremlin critic said he remained in contact with some members of Russia’s ruling elite. “Fear reigns there – I am talking about the ruling class. “Everyone wants the war to end. An overwhelming majority does,” he said.
“区别在于人们希望战争以何种方式结束：有些人希望战争以胜利告终，有些人希望以普京的失败告终，而另一些人则无论结果如何，只希望战争停止。”卡西亚诺夫表示，尽管战争伤亡人数不断上升、食品价格持续上涨，但在普通俄罗斯人当中，他“看不到发生起义的理由”。
“The difference lies in what kind of ending people want: some want the war to end in victory, some want it to end in Putin’s defeat, and others simply want it to stop, regardless of the outcome.”Among ordinary Russians, Kasyanov said he saw “no grounds for a revolt”, despite mounting war casualties and rising food prices.
“过去30年来，俄罗斯人一直生活在高通胀之下，”他说。“他们已经习惯了忍受这种情况。”但他补充说，新一轮的大规模军事动员可能会引发街头抗议。
“Russians have lived with high inflation for the past 30 years,” he said. “They have grown accustomed to putting up with it.”But a new wave of large-scale military mobilisations could trigger street protests, he added.
在巴黎组织的一个名为“俄罗斯-自由”协会为反普京流亡者举办的会议间隙，卡西亚诺夫表示，过去几年间，俄罗斯已变得“几乎完全极权化”。
Speaking on the sidelines of a conference organised by the Paris-based association Russie-Libertes for anti-Putin exiles, Kasyanov said Russia had become “practically totalitarian” over the past few years.
“社会中存在一种宿命感、相互之间的敌意以及严重的紧张情绪，”他说。“人们正退缩到自己的家庭之中，而彼此之间的负面情绪却在加剧。”在被普京解职后，卡西亚诺夫加入了反对派，并成为克里姆林宫最直言不讳的批评者之一。与许多人一样，战争的爆发和持续时长也让他感到震惊。卡西亚诺夫曾在2022年告诉法新社，这场战争可能会持续大约两年。
“There is a sense of fatalism, hostility toward one another, and serious tension in society,” he said. “People are retreating into their own families, while negative feelings towards one another grow.”After being dismissed by Putin, Kasyanov joined the opposition and became one of the Kremlin’s most vocal critics. Like many others, the start and duration of the war were a shock for him. Kasyanov told AFP in 2022 that the war could last about two years. ‘Calculating cynic’
“精于算计的冷血者”在克里姆林宫领导人于10月1日表示，如果其飞地加里宁格勒遭到攻击，俄罗斯将考虑使用“所有类型的武器”后，卡西亚诺夫称西方国家不应被普京的威胁所吓倒。
After the Kremlin chief on Oct 1 said Russia would consider using “all types of weapons” if its exclave of Kaliningrad were attacked, Kasyanov said Western countries should not be intimidated by Putin’s sabre-rattling.
“西方和欧洲最大的错误是他们对普京过于恐惧。他并不像表面上看起来那么强大，”卡西亚诺夫在巴黎对座无虚席的听众说道。
“The West’s and Europeans’ biggest mistake is that they are too afraid of Putin. He is not as strong as he appears,” Kasyanov told a packed audience in Paris.
“普京对核按钮的恐惧程度，比许多欧洲人都要深。”卡西亚诺夫认为，普京希望外国人相信他“是个精神病患者”，但实际上他只不过是一个“极其精于算计的冷血者”。
“Putin fears the nuclear button more than many Europeans do.”Kasyanov suggested that Putin wants foreigners to believe that “he is a psychopath” when in reality he is simply a “highly calculating cynic”.
“而且他还在不断提高这场博弈的赌注。”卡西亚诺夫表示，随着“混合攻击”的增加，普京正在激怒西方，迫使其采取一些他可以利用的措施。
“And he is raising the stakes in the game.”Kasyanov said that with an increase in “hybrid attacks” Putin was provoking the West into taking measures that he could then exploit.
“他是一个挑衅者，”他补充道，“他唯一懂得的行事方式，就是在克格勃学院学到的那一套。他亲口告诉过我。”但卡西亚诺夫同时表示，他认为普京并未准备与欧洲爆发公开战争。
“He is a provocateur,” he added. “The only modus operandi he understands is the one he learned at the KGB academy. He told me that himself.”But, Kasyanov said, he did not believe Putin was preparing for open war with Europe.
“普京想要的是尊重。他想迫使整个欧洲都向他表示尊重。”——法新社
“What Putin wants is respect. He wants to force all of Europe to give it to him.”AFP