2022年初，关于俄罗斯是否真的会入侵乌克兰，引发了大量争论。
The early weeks of 2022 were filled with a lot of debate about whether Russia would really invade Ukraine.
很少有人怀疑入侵的可能性。当时约有16万俄军被调往乌克兰边境附近地区。弗拉基米尔·普京总统认为乌克兰是一个人为制造的国家，其政府不合法，实际上应属于俄罗斯，这一点早已不是秘密。
Few doubted that an invasion was a possibility. Some 160,000 Russian troops had been moved to areas near the border of Ukraine. It was no secret that President Vladimir Putin believed Ukraine to be an artificial country with an illegitimate government that really belonged to Russia.
当时的争论焦点在于，普京先生的行动和虚张声势是否只是做做样子。包括我在内，那些认为入侵不太可能发生的人，并非因为普京先生声称不会发生才这么认为；我们深知不能依赖他的否认。但我们也知道，入侵将是一项荒谬的冒险。乌克兰人肯定会战斗，并得到欧洲和美国的支持；即使他们的军队被击败，他们也会抵抗被征服。普京先生不可避免地会陷入一场长期冲突，难以从中抽身，他的军队也将陷入困境。
The debate at the time centered on whether Mr. Putin’s actions and bluster were merely for show. Those — including me — who thought an invasion was unlikely did not think so because Mr. Putin had said it would not happen; we knew better than to rely on his denials. But we also knew that an invasion would be an absurd undertaking. The Ukrainians would surely fight, supported by Europe and the United States, and even if their army was defeated, they would resist subjugation. Mr. Putin would inevitably get bogged down in a long conflict from which he would struggle to extricate himself and his army.
事实证明，我们这些怀疑者只对了一半：入侵确实是个糟糕的主意。但普京先生还是照做了。
In the event, we doubters were half right: The invasion was a terrible idea. Mr. Putin went through with it anyway.
近几个月来，俄罗斯对欧洲的混合攻击日益肆无忌惮，这让我想起了近五年前的那些争论。既然当时已经严重误判，普京先生现在是否可能犯下更大的错误，将他过度拉伸、疲惫不堪的军队带入另一场潜在规模更大的战争？他是否绝望到为了避免在乌克兰的屈辱性失败，而愿意提高他最初赌注的风险？这将是另一项荒谬的冒险，但我们敢将其排除在外吗？
I have been reminded of those arguments of almost five years ago in recent months, as Russia’s hybrid attacks on Europe have become increasingly brazen. Having miscalculated so badly then, could Mr. Putin make an even bigger miscalculation now, and take his overstretched, battle-weary army into another, potentially bigger war? Could he be desperate enough to avoid a humiliating defeat in Ukraine that he would be willing to raise the stakes on his original bet? It would be another absurd undertaking, yet dare we rule it out?
上个月，在载有英国前首相鲍里斯·约翰逊和其他欧洲政要的一列火车驶离后不久，一架俄罗斯无人机袭击了靠近乌克兰与波兰边境的一个车站上的客运列车。前中央情报局局长戴维·彼得雷乌斯当时就在火车站。
Last month a Russian drone struck a passenger train at a station near the Ukrainian border with Poland shortly after a train carrying Boris Johnson, a former prime minister of Britain, and other European dignitaries had departed. David Petraeus, a former C.I.A. director, was at the train station when the attack took place.