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真实选民揭示可能决定2026年中期选举的因素Real voters reveal what could decide the 2026 midterms

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(NewsNation)距离选举日仅剩一个月左右,来自德克萨斯州和阿拉巴马州的选民向NewsNation表示,经济压力、对政客的不信任、国家安全乃至人工智能都在影响着他们对2026年中期选举的看法。德克萨斯州的独立选民桑迪·赫布利称,随着共和党人肯·帕克斯顿与民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科展开激烈的参议院席位争夺战,由人工智能生成的政治广告已成为新的担忧点。

(NewsNation) — With Election Day about a month away, voters from Texas and Alabama told NewsNation economic pressure, distrust of politicians, national security and even artificial intelligence are influencing how they view the 2026 midterm elections. Texas independent voter Sandi Hebley said AI-generated political advertising has become a new concern as Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in a competitive Senate race. "I'd rather hear from the actual people than something that some committee somewhere made up," Hebley said.

“我宁愿听到真实选民的声音,也不想看到某个委员会炮制出来的内容,”赫布利说道。这场德克萨斯州的竞选堪称全美竞争最激烈的参议院选举之一。最近的民调显示,帕克斯顿与塔拉里科的支持率仅相差几个百分点,部分调查甚至显示塔拉里科略占优势。9月30日,NewsNation曾报道称,双方竞选团队都在积极争取关键的西班牙裔及非裔选民。

The Texas contest is among the nation's most competitive Senate races. Recent polling has shown Paxton and Talarico separated by only a few points, with some surveys giving Talarico a narrow advantage. NewsNation reported Sept. 30 that both campaigns are also courting crucial Hispanic and Black voters. The Texas contest is among the nation's most competitive Senate races. Recent polling has shown Paxton and Talarico separated by only a few points, with some surveys giving Talarico a narrow advantage.

民主党籍选民安德里亚·塞万提斯则认为,她的政党需要重新调整宣传策略。“我认为民主党人必须提升自身表现,”她向NewsNation表示,并主张民主党应减少对激进政治议题的侧重,转而更多关注美国民众日常面临的实际问题。塞万提斯还呼吁提高政治透明度,并指出两党都难以完全避免腐败现象。她警告称,目前民主党内部缺乏团结,这也导致不少觉得两大政党都无法真正代表自己利益的选民转而选择以独立身份参与投票。

NewsNation reported both campaigns are also courting crucial Hispanic and Black voters. Democratic voter Andrea Cervantes said her party needs to rethink its message. "I think that Democrats need to step up their game," she told NewsNation, arguing that Democrats should focus less on progressive politics and more on the issues Americans face every day. Cervantes also called for greater transparency and said neither party is immune from corruption. She warned that Democrats currently lack unity, pointing to the appeal of identifying as an independent among voters who do not feel firmly represented by either major party.

经济问题则是所有受访者普遍关注的话题。盖洛普长期开展的“最关注的问题”调查专门追踪美国民众对经济、政府治理等议题的担忧程度,以及他们认为哪一方政党更能妥善解决这些核心问题。

The economy emerged as common ground among the panelists. Gallup's long-running Most Important Problem survey tracks Americans' concerns about issues including the economy and government, along with which party voters believe can better address their top concern.

赫布利指出,不断上涨的生活成本很可能成为选民投票时的重要考量因素。“我认为很多人正面临经济压力,”她说道,并提到人们既要支付房租或房贷,又要花钱购买汽油才能上班。据NewsNation报道,通货膨胀、住房成本及燃油价格依然是选民普遍关心的政治议题。共和党选民阿朱阿·梅森承认物价确实上涨了,但她认为选民在考虑经济因素的同时也应兼顾国家安全。

Hebley said rising costs are likely to follow voters into the voting booth. "I think a lot of folks are struggling," she said, citing the pressure of paying rent or a mortgage while also buying gas to get to work. NewsNation has reported that inflation, housing and fuel costs remain significant political concerns. Republican voter Ajua Mason acknowledged higher prices but argued that voters should consider national security alongside their finances.

她力挺唐纳德·特朗普总统对伊朗的政策,表示即便短期内经济会受到影响,只要这些政策能提升国家安全性,她也愿意接受。这些相互冲突的考量因素或将决定国会的控制权归属。截至10月1日,作为NewsNation选举合作伙伴的Decision Desk HQ预测,民主党赢得众议院控制权的可能性为75%;而赢得参议院控制权的可能性则为54%,可见两院控制权之争竞争激烈。

She defended President Donald Trump's policies toward Iran, saying she is willing to accept short-term financial pain if the administration ultimately makes the country safer. Those competing priorities could help determine control of Congress. As of Oct. 1, NewsNation election partner Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 75% chance of winning the House, while Democrats held a 54% chance of capturing the Senate, making control of both chambers highly competitive.

随着选民即将做出选择,此次讨论也凸显出选举结果为何仍充满不确定性。与会者提出的担忧涉及方方面面:从人工智能生成的竞选材料、对政党的不信任,到食品价格与外交政策等,这些都反映出候选人正努力争取那些诉求未必严格符合党派立场的选民支持。

With voters preparing to make that choice, the panel illustrated why the outcome remains uncertain. Concerns ranged from AI-generated campaign material and distrust of political parties to grocery bills and foreign policy, underscoring how candidates are competing for voters whose priorities do not necessarily fall neatly along party lines.