DeepSeek和华为技术有限公司正在逐步削弱英伟达公司在中国最重要的优势之一。在此过程中，他们正在搭建一座桥梁，这可能让仍依赖美国硬件的中国人工智能企业更容易转向国产替代方案。
DeepSeek and Huawei Technologies Co. are chipping away at one of Nvidia Corp.’s most important advantages in China. In the process, they’re building a bridge that could make it far easier for Chinese artificial intelligence firms still reliant on American hardware to switch to homegrown alternatives.
作者：Catherine Thorbecke 总部位于杭州的AI模型制造商DeepSeek和总部位于深圳的电信巨头华为正在软件领域展开合作，这是英伟达持续全球统治地位中一个被低估的来源。虽然总部位于圣克拉拉的芯片制造商英伟达的硬件备受关注，但其卓越的软件生态系统长期以来给开发者提供了另一个强有力的理由，让他们坚持使用英伟达芯片，即使华为一直在积极尝试增加国产替代芯片的出货量。
By Catherine Thorbecke DeepSeek and Huawei Technologies Co. are chipping away at one of Nvidia Corp The Hangzhou-based AI model maker and the Shenzhen telecom giant are teaming up on software, an underappreciated source of Nvidia’s continued global dominance. While the Santa Clara-based chipmaker’s hardware gets most of the attention, its superior software ecosystem has long given developers another powerful reason to stick with its chips even as Huawei has aggressively tried to ramp up domestic shipments of alternatives.
DeepSeek在微信帖子中赞扬了这一合作，称已为华为的升腾平台重新开发了其TileLang工具——这些工具帮助开发者优化AI芯片性能——并将其开源，即免费供他人使用。这是一个重大进展，因为试图摆脱英伟达的最大障碍之一不仅仅是获取芯片，而是为完全不同的计算栈调整和改进软件。DeepSeek和华为正试图降低中国整个AI生态系统的转换成本。
DeepSeek has redeveloped its TileLang tools, which help developers optimize performance of AI chips, for Huawei’s Ascend platform — and is making them open-source, or freely available for others to use, the company said in a WeChat post lauding the collaboration. It’s a significant development because one of the biggest obstacles in trying to move away from Nvidia isn’t just acquiring the chips, it’s adapting and improving the software for a totally different computing stack. DeepSeek and Huawei are trying to lower the cost of switching for China’s entire AI ecosystem.
华盛顿漏洞百出的出口管制政策，或许正在助力北京极力想要实现的转型。如果实施彻底的封锁，本会给中国造成即时痛楚。然而，美国限制措施执行不力，在限制中国获取英伟达芯片的同时，又给中国企业留足了生存空间以继续推进，并为华为争取了宝贵时间来改进自家产品。
Washington’s porous export-control policy may be helping the transition Beijing so desperately wants. An airtight cutoff would have inflicted immediate pain in China. Instead, imperfect enforcement of US restrictions has constrained access to Nvidia’s chips while leaving Chinese companies with enough of a lifeline to keep advancing, and buying Huawei precious time to improve its own products. To be clear, demand for Nvidia’s products remains strong on the mainland as the vast grey markets and smuggling networks that have emerged make apparent. Tech giants from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd to ByteDance Ltd. are reportedly queuing up to buy them, even while navigating headaches imposed by both Washington and Beijing. Huawei, meanwhile, has acknowledged that it’s struggling to meet the demand of the frenetic AI sector at home.
毋庸置疑，英伟达产品在中国大陆的需求依然强劲，涌现出的庞大灰色市场和走私网络便是明证。据报道，从阿里巴巴集团到字节跳动等科技巨头，纷纷排队抢购，即便它们还要应对来自华盛顿和北京的双重烦恼。与此同时，华为也承认，难以满足国内狂热 AI 领域的需求。
As China tech analyst Poe Zhao puts it, while the software gap is closing in public, “the supply gap is not.”The next major bottleneck, he added, is how many chips Huawei can actually produce. That’s a reality check for China, which loudly touts progress toward self-sufficiency — claims that Nvidia lobbyists have seized on to argue against tighter export controls. Nvidia’s incentive to regain access to the lucrative market, and the billions of dollars in sales at stake, is clear enough. What makes the picture harder to read is that semiconductor restrictions have increasingly become bargaining chips in broader trade negotiations. Blurring the distinction between a strategic contest over advanced technology and a trade dispute risks undermining Washington’s objectives in both.
正如中国科技分析师 Poe Zhao 所言，虽然软件差距在公开层面正在缩小，“但供应缺口并没有。”他补充道，下一个主要瓶颈在于华维实际能生产多少芯片。这给中国敲响了警钟，后者大肆宣扬在自给自足方面取得的进展——这些言论被英伟达游说者抓住把柄，用以反对收紧出口管制。英伟达渴望重夺这个利润丰厚的市场、以及面临的数十亿美元销售额，动机显而易见。
Whether China would have pursued making homegrown chips so aggressively without export controls is hotly debated. But the deepening partnership between two of the country’s most prominent tech champions indicates the restrictions have only intensified the urgency. Executives at both firms have made that priority explicit. DeepSeek Chief Executive Officer Liang Wenfeng told investors that using more domestic chips to train its models is a major goal and expects Huawei to begin supplying training chips as early as the fourth quarter of this year, The Information reported last month, citing people familiar with the matter.
但让局势更加扑朔迷离的是，半导体限制日益成为更广泛贸易谈判中的筹码。模糊先进技术战略竞争与贸易争端的界限，恐将动摇华盛顿在两个领域的目标。
That timeline may prove optimistic, but the direction of travel is hard to dismiss.
在没有出口管制的情况下，中国是否会如此激进地推动国产芯片的发展，这一点存在激烈争议。但该国两位最杰出的科技巨头之间日益深化的合作表明，这些限制反而加剧了紧迫性。两家公司的高管都明确表达了这一优先事项。据《The Information》上个月援引知情人士的消息报道，DeepSeek首席执行官梁文峰曾告诉投资者，使用更多国产芯片训练模型是一项重要目标，并预计华为最早将于今年第四季度开始供应训练芯片。这一时间表或许过于乐观，但其发展方向却不容忽视。
Huawei’s rotating Chairman Eric Xu also made the ambition overtly clear in a keynote last month. Based on the data it collected, he said that the company has surpassed Nvidia in terms of domestic market share (though official tallies may understate Nvidia’s sales because of the grey market for the chips). More revealing than the numbers, however, was Xu’s determination. The Chinese people “will not accept a future in which others decide whether or not we can have access to certain products.”For the government, domestic industry, and Huawei, he added, “the path is undoubtedly to push for full self-sufficiency.”This transition is likely to happen slowly, then all at once, helped along by seemingly incremental software advances that make it easier to switch to domestic alternatives as they become available. China hasn’t breached Nvidia’s moat yet. But its tech industry is collectively figuring out where the weak points are, and how to punch through them. Washington can’t say it wasn’t warned when the breach becomes obvious, and there’s little left for its restrictions to protect.
华为轮值董事长徐直军在上个月的主题演讲中也明确表达了这一雄心。他表示，根据收集到的数据，华为在国内市场的份额已经超过了英伟达（尽管由于芯片的灰色市场，官方统计数据可能低估了英伟达的销量）。然而，比数据更具揭示意义的是徐直军的决心。他说，中国人民“不会接受一个由他人决定我们能否使用某些产品的未来”。
他还补充道，对于政府、国内产业和华为而言，“毫无疑问，正确的道路是追求完全自给自足”。这一转型可能会先缓慢进行，随后突然加速，而看似渐进的软件进步也将起到推动作用，使企业在国产替代方案可用时更容易完成切换。中国尚未突破英伟达的护城河，但其科技行业正在集体识别出薄弱点，并思考如何突破这些障碍。
当突破发生时，华盛顿将无法声称自己未受到警告，而届时其限制措施所能保护的东西也将所剩无几。黄仁勋有5.4万亿理由阻挠AI规则：Parmy Olson亚马逊司机眼镜将成形象危机：Dave Lee中国AI失控会怎样？：Catherine Thorbecke
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