据彭博智能（Bloomberg Intelligence）报道，随着DeepSeek等实验室取得进展，过去几个月里，美国人工智能公司相对于中国的表现优势急剧缩小至历史最低水平，这威胁到了美国的技术霸权地位。
AI companies’ performance lead over China narrowed sharply in past months to a record low after labs such as DeepSeek gained ground, threatening US tech supremacy, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
彭博智能高级分析师罗伯特·利亚（Robert Lea）周一在一份报告中写道，在DeepSeek于9月发布V4.1 Flash模型后，中国顶级模型在基准测试得分上仅落后于美国竞争对手3%。这一差距从5月的约9%以及年初的15%大幅收窄。他表示，这种性能的提升预示着中国竞争者将进一步扩大市场份额。
Top Chinese models lag their US rivals by just 3% on benchmark scores after the September release of DeepSeek’s V4.1 Flash, BI senior analyst Robert Lea wrote in a report Monday. That’s down from about 9% in May and 15% earlier in the year. That improving performance spells further market share gains for Chinese contenders, he said.
中国的崛起源于其人工智能专业知识的深化，以及研究人员针对国内硬件优化模型的能力。这些进展引发了人们对美国出口管制有效性的质疑，这些管制旨在限制中国的人工智能进步，并阻止华为技术有限公司等企业在开发自身替代方案方面取得进展。
China’s ascent is a result of deepening AI expertise and its researchers’ ability to optimize their models for domestic hardware. The gains raise questions about the usefulness of US export restrictions on technology such as Nvidia Corp. chips, intended to curtail Chinese AI advances and prevent the likes of Huawei Technologies Co. from making progress with their own alternatives.
利亚表示，亚洲大国的进步“进一步加剧了人们对美国在人工智能领域技术霸权长期可持续性的怀疑”。
The Asian country’s progress “casts further doubt on the long-term sustainability of US technological supremacy in AI,” Lea said.
这两个超级大国正在争夺主导一项驱动经济生产力、军事领导力和全球影响力的技术。就在Anthropic和OpenAI在股市首秀中追逐万亿美元估值并吹嘘其卓越能力之际，中国低成本的人工智能模型正在用户数量上缩小与美国竞争对手的差距。
The two superpowers are vying to dominate a technology that drives economic productivity, military leadership and global influence. China’s lower-cost AI models are bridging the gap with US rivals in user numbers just as Anthropic and OpenAI chase trillion-dollar valuations in stock market debuts, touting their superior capabilities.
上个月，DeepSeek的V4.1 Flash在LiveBench上全球排名第六，成为该初创公司自2025年凭借推理模型R1开创先河以来，排名最高的中国模型。LiveBench根据模型对问题、谜题或任务的回答和分析能力进行评分，这一过程类似于衡量人类智商。
DeepSeek’s V4.1 Flash ranked sixth globally last month on LiveBench, making it the highest-ranked Chinese model since the startup broke ground with its reasoning model R1 in 2025. LiveBench scores AI models based on their responses to and analysis of questions, puzzles or tasks, a process akin to gauging human IQ.
DeepSeek 最近记录到的 LiveBench 得分为 81.1，低于 Anthropic 的最佳得分 83.4。Lea 表示，这意味着 DeepSeek 模型的表现与 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 的领先人工智能系统“相当”。不过，尽管得分差距已缩小至仅 3%，但在 LiveBench 评估的前 15 个模型中，仅有三个是中国模型。
DeepSeek last recorded a LiveBench score of 81.1, below Anthropic’s best score of 83.4. That means the DeepSeek model delivers “comparable performance” to leading AI systems from Anthropic and OpenAI, Lea said. Still, while the score gap has narrowed to just 3%, just three of the top 15 models as assessed by LiveBench were Chinese.
Lea 警告称，这类排名会不断变化，而且无论榜单得分如何，实现商业化都可能存在困难。由于被指控存在模型蒸馏行为，中国模型正面临美国日益严格的监管审查，甚至可能遭到禁令。
Such rankings shift, Lea cautioned, and it could be difficult to monetize regardless of leaderboard scores. Chinese models face increasing US regulatory scrutiny and even potential bans following allegations of model distillation.
Lea 表示，中国人工智能行业可能要到 2030 年才能实现盈利。过度关注低利润率的 token 供应以及残酷的价格战，可能导致任何企业都无法在拥有超过 1100 个大语言模型的国内市场中获得竞争优势。
The Chinese AI industry could remain unprofitable until 2030, Lea said. A focus on low-margin token supply and a brutal price war may make it impossible for any firm to gain a competitive edge in a domestic market flooded with more than 1,100 large language models.
Lea 指出，字节跳动有限公司（ByteDance Ltd.）的豆包（Doubao）在人工智能应用商业化方面处于领先地位，而竞争对手 DeepSeek 和腾讯控股（Tencent Holdings Ltd.）的聊天机器人仍保持免费。
ByteDance Ltd.’s Doubao is the frontrunner in AI app monetization, while the chatbots of rivals DeepSeek and Tencent Holdings Ltd. remain free, Lea said.
他表示：“要让中国的人工智能行业走上可持续盈利的轨道，就需要缓解竞争压力、进行行业洗牌，并采取更理性的定价策略。”
“Putting China’s AI sector on a sustainable profit footing will require a cooling of competitive pressures, an industry shakeout, and a more rational approach to pricing,” he said.