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美国银行称土耳其资金流出主要转向银行存款Turkey Fund Outflows Mostly Moved to Bank Deposits, BofA Says

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美国银行证券(BofA Securities Inc)表示,9月份土耳其市场暴跌引发的资金流出中,很大一部分流入了银行存款。

Securities Inc said a large share of Turkish fund outflows stemming from a rout in September moved into bank deposits.

根据美国银行证券经济学家Hande Kucuk的数据,9月份土耳其电子资金平台Tefas的资金流出总额约为7430亿里拉(150亿美元)。

September outflows across Turkey’s electronic fund platform Tefas totaled some 743 billion liras ($15 billion), according to BofA Securities economist Hande Kucuk.

Kucuk在周一发布的一份研究报告中指出,截至9月16日,所有共同基金的数据均已统计完毕,但此后有131只基金被排除在外,这些基金已被市场监管机构下令清算。

The full mutual fund universe was gauged through Sep. 16 with a 131 funds excluded afterward, Kucuk wrote in a research note on Monday, referring to funds that the market regulator had ordered into liquidation.

Kucuk写道,9月1日至9月29日期间,银行存款增加了约9500亿里拉,其中8840亿里拉来自企业。

Bank deposits increased by around 950 billion liras between Sep. 1 and Sep. 29, Kucuk wrote, adding that 884 billion liras came from corporates.

在企业存款的增长中,63%以里拉计价,37%为外币,她指出这“大致符合近期的美元化趋势”。

Of the increase in corporates’ deposits, 63% was in liras and 37% in FX, which is “broadly in line with recent dollarization trends,” Kucuk wrote.

Kucuk表示,土耳其的基金危机导致9月份有数千亿里拉从投资基金中流出,并引发了对美元化激增的担忧,这可能威胁到土耳其官员抗击通胀所依赖的货币稳定。然而,她指出,上个月的美元化趋势“得到了控制”。美国银行估计,居民持有的外币相关资产增加了17亿美元。

A funds crisis in Turkey led to hundreds of billions of liras fleeing investment funds in September and sparked worries about a dollarization spike, which would threaten the currency stability critical to Turkish officials’ inflation fight. Dollarization was “contained” last month, however, Kucuk wrote. BofA estimates a $1.7 billion increase in residents’ total FX-linked assets.

Kucuk写道,土耳其央行在截至9月25日的四周内净售出的95亿美元外汇中,有三分之一用于满足居民的外汇和黄金需求,“其余大部分则反映了通过投资组合和掉期渠道的外国资本流出”。

A third of the Turkish central bank’s estimated $9.5 billion in net FX sales in the four weeks to Sept. 25 went to meet residents’ FX and gold demand, “with most of the remainder reflecting foreign outflows through portfolio and swap channels,” Kucuk wrote.

该公司预计外汇储备的压力仍可控,且不认为“里拉当前贬值速度会出现明显变化”。

The firm anticipates reserve pressures remaining manageable and doesn’t see a “meaningful change in the current pace of lira depreciation.”

高盛集团上周表示,截至9月份的数据表明,土耳其货币市场资金流出中约有一半流入了国内的外汇和黄金存款。

Goldman Sachs Group Inc said last week that data through September suggest roughly half of the money market outflows in Turkey went into FX and gold deposits domestically.

Kucuk指出:“资金流出最初集中在货币市场基金中,随后在该月晚些时候扩展到了其他基金类别。”

According to Kucuk, “Outflows were initially concentrated in money market funds before broadening to other funds categories later in the month.”