胡塞武装声称他们只是在保卫也门，但他们的行动正在损害全球贸易。
The Houthis say they’re just defending Yemen, but their moves are damaging global commerce.
2026年9月21日，在也门萨那，人们在摩托车上穿行，背景是一块展示胡塞武装领导人阿卜杜勒·马利克·胡塞的大幅广告牌，上面用阿拉伯语写着“言行之主”。| 奥萨马·阿卜杜勒拉赫曼/美联社 纳哈尔·图西是POLITICO的高级外交事务记者。在遍布全球的职业生涯中，她曾报道过战争、种族灭绝和政治动荡。她的专栏深入探讨全球国家安全与外交政策决策层的决策过程，以及由此引发的后果。
People ride their motorbikes under a billboard showing Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi with a phrase in Arabic that reads, "master of words and deeds," in Sanaa, Yemen, Sept. 21, 2026. | Osamah Abdulrahman/AP Nahal Toosi is POLITICO’s senior foreign affairs correspondent. She has reported on war, genocide and political chaos in a career that has taken her around the world. Her reported column delves into the decision-making of the global national security and foreign policy establishment — and the fallout that comes from it.
今年，唐纳德·特朗普总统做了许多事情，印证了外界对他鲁莽行事的评价。然而，在与一个武装精良、由宗教驱动的政权——该政权正威胁着一条关键水道——的对抗中，他的表现却出人意料地克制。特朗普或许别无选择：胡塞武装确实难以应对。
President Donald Trump has done a lot this year to live up to the criticism that he is reckless. But in a faceoff with a heavily armed, religiously driven regime that’s threatening a critical waterway, he’s acting remarkably restrained. Trump may have no choice: It’s really hard to deal with the Houthis.
随着这支也门武装组织对美国的盟友沙特阿拉伯发起新一轮攻势，特朗普目前仍拒绝以美国空袭介入冲突。他明确表示，尽管沙特请求提供更多援助，因为胡塞武装正在威胁红海地区的石油及其他贸易，但他并不打算放弃去年经过数周冲突后美国与胡塞武装达成的停火协议。特朗普强调，胡塞武装承诺不会攻击美国船只。
As the Yemeni militant group pursues a new offensive against U.S. ally Saudi Arabia, Trump has — for now — resisted entering the fray with American airstrikes. He has made clear he isn’t inclined to abandon a ceasefire the U.S. reached with the Houthis after weeks of clashes last year, despite Saudi requests for more help as the Houthis threaten oil and other commerce in the Red Sea. Trump has stressed that the Houthis are promising not to fire on U.S. ships.
“胡塞武装给我们打了电话，他们不想与我们交战，”特朗普上个月说道。
“The Houthis called us, and they don’t want to fight with us,” Trump said last month.
对于今年在政治风险方面表现出极大胆略的特朗普而言，这一立场格外谨慎——无论是发动对伊朗的战争、绑架委内瑞拉总统，还是实施能源封锁以推翻古巴政权。
This is a notably cautious position from a man who has shown a big appetite for political risk this year, whether it’s by launching a war on Iran, abducting Venezuela’s president or imposing an energy blockade in an effort to oust the Cuban regime.
此处附上标准免责声明：特朗普经常改变主意，而且原因往往令人意外。在你阅读这篇专栏时，他或许就会决定对胡塞武装发动打击。
Standard disclaimer here: Trump frequently changes his mind, often for surprising reasons. He could end up striking the Houthis while you read this column.
然而，特朗普至今不愿与胡塞武装打破停火协议，这或许表明他已经从战场上吸取了一些惨痛教训，包括何时应避免正面冲突。
Still, Trump’s unwillingness so far to break the ceasefire with the Houthis is a potential sign that he has learned some hard lessons about the battlefront, including when to avoid it.
胡塞武装对此并不介意。在发给我的信息中，一名胡塞官员回避了有关该组织如何看待特朗普的问题，但强调与美国的停火协议依然有效。
The Houthis wouldn’t mind this being the case. In texts to me, a Houthi official sidestepped questions about the group’s views on Trump but stressed that the ceasefire with the U.S. stands.
“我们认为美国没有理由再次介入也门事务，”这位官员写道。为了让他们能够讨论敏感问题，我允许这位官员及其他人匿名发言。
“We do not believe there is any reason for the United States to get involved in Yemen again,” the official wrote. I granted the official, and others, anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.
此外，特朗普还面临其他棘手问题，其中包括是否以及何时恢复对德黑兰政权的轰炸。
Besides, Trump has other headaches. That includes deciding whether and when to resume bombing the regime in Tehran.
“与伊朗的战争尚未解决，因此我能理解他为何不愿开辟另一个战场，”曾担任美国也门问题特使并与胡塞武装进行过谈判的蒂姆·伦德金告诉我。
“The war with Iran is unresolved, so I can understand why he’s not keen to open up another front,” Tim Lenderking, a former U.S. special envoy to Yemen who has negotiated with the Houthis, told me.
当然，伊朗战争与沙特和胡塞武装之间的冲突存在关联。伊朗政权支持并向胡塞武装提供武器，而胡塞武装控制着也门的大部分地区。
There are, of course, links between the Iran war and the Saudi-Houthi fight. Iran’s regime supports and arms the Houthis, who control much of Yemen.
德黑兰领导层与胡塞武装高层之间也存在许多惊人相似之处，包括领导人长期隐匿行踪，以及某些人认为他们怀有扩张主义理想。胡塞武装和伊朗政权都信奉什叶派伊斯兰教，尽管分支不同。他们都憎恨美国和以色列。胡塞武装的官方口号是：“真主至大，美国灭亡，以色列灭亡，犹太人遭诅咒，伊斯兰胜利。”在外部压力下，双方都试图控制对全球贸易至关重要的海上通道：伊朗控制霍尔木兹海峡，而胡塞武装则控制曼德海峡。然而，从许多方面来看，这两场战斗仍有明显区别。
Tehran’s leaders and the Houthi hierarchy also share a striking number of characteristics, including leaders who stay in hiding and, some argue, expansionist ideals. Both the Houthis and Iran’s regime follow Shia Islam, though different strands. They both despise the U.S. and Israel. The Houthi official motto is: “God is the greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A curse upon the Jews, Victory to Islam.”Amid outside pressure, they each seek to control maritime passages key to global trade: Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthis in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. In many ways, however, the battles are distinct.
熟悉该组织的现任及前任美国及外国官员强调，胡塞武装与其说是德黑兰的代理人，不如说是一个合作伙伴。胡塞武装有其自身的诉求、历史和议程。其议程包括结束胡塞武装所称的沙特阿拉伯对也门的封锁，而沙特正是也门现政府（尽管该政府实力薄弱）的支持者。
The Houthis are more a partner than a proxy for Tehran, current and former U.S. and foreign officials familiar with the group are keen to stress. The Houthis have their own grievances, history and agenda. That agenda includes ending what the Houthis describe as a blockade on Yemen imposed by Saudi Arabia, which backs the official, but weak, Yemeni government.
“我们只是在保卫自己和我们国家，”胡塞武装的一名官员告诉我。
“We are merely defending ourselves and our country,” the Houthi official told me.
美国继续通过情报共享和武器销售等方式支持沙特阿拉伯。华盛顿和利雅得之间存在一项防务协议，白宫在一份标准声明中强调：“如果局势发展到那一步，美国将始终与沙特阿拉伯站在一起，并支持他们。”但没有任何迹象表明特朗普的高级幕僚正敦促他再次派遣美军介入也门冲突。去年美国针对胡塞武装的“粗糙骑手”军事行动影响有限，尽管特朗普声称胡塞武装已经“投降”。此外，部分由伊朗战争引发的美国弹药短缺问题如今也必须被纳入考量。
The U.S. continues to support Saudi Arabia through efforts like intelligence-sharing and weapons sales. Washington and Riyadh have a defense agreement, and, in a boilerplate statement, the White House stressed that “if it comes down to it, the United States will always stand with Saudi Arabia and support them.”But there’s no sign that top Trump aides are urging him to again unleash the U.S. military in the Yemen fight. Last year’s U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, Operation Rough Rider, had limited impact even though Trump claimed the Houthis “capitulated.”U.S. munition shortages, caused in part by the Iran war, have to be considered now.
据我了解，国务卿马可·卢比奥尤其关注分析人士对重新介入胡塞武装冲突所带来风险的警告。
I’m told that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is particularly attuned to analysts’ warnings about the dangers of jumping back into the Houthi fight.
一位熟悉政府中东政策的美国官员表示：“卢比奥理解其中的复杂性。他清楚地知道各方的身份和角色。”
“Rubio understands the complexity. He has a good grasp of who the players are,” said a U.S. official familiar with the administration’s Middle East policy.
一些美国议员和前任官员认为，至少通过空袭削弱胡塞武装的能力，从而帮助沙特是值得的。但熟悉该地区的人士警告称，即使派遣美国地面部队，也可能不足以阻止该组织。
Some U.S. lawmakers and former U.S. officials say it’s worth helping the Saudis by carrying out airstrikes against the Houthis, at least to degrade the Yemeni militia’s capacity. Others familiar with the region warn that even sending in U.S. ground troops may not be enough to stop the group.
近年来，胡塞武装已发展为一支令人畏惧的军事力量。他们不仅自行制造更多武器，还在升级从伊朗获得的军火。据报道，他们甚至正在将人工智能技术整合到其武器库中。
The Houthis have evolved into a fearsome military force in recent years. They are manufacturing more of their own weapons, while upgrading arms sent from Iran. They are even reportedly integrating artificial intelligence into their arsenal.
“他们在使用这些先进的常规武器方面非常出色。他们会将导弹进行改造，设法减轻其重量，从而使其飞行距离更远。他们在制导系统方面也进行了反复试验，”一位长期密切关注也门冲突的西方官员表示。“如果伊朗不再提供进一步支持，这对胡塞武装来说将是个打击，但他们终究会克服这一困难。”曾与胡塞武装会面过的联合国前官员艾普里尔·阿利则表示，未来几年胡塞武装的野心很可能会进一步膨胀。
“They’re amazing with these advanced conventional weapons. They would take missiles and figure out how to lighten them so that they would go farther. They did trial and error with guidance systems,” said a Western official who has closely monitored the Yemen conflict. “If nothing further came from Iran, that would hurt the Houthis, but they’d overcome it.”April Alley, a former U.N. official who has met with the Houthis, said their ambitions are likely to grow in the years ahead.
“他们的许多领导人其实都非常年轻，而且是在各种战争中成长起来的。他们目睹自己多次在极其困境中突围而出，并最终占据上风，因此他们正不断朝着新的目标推进，”阿利说道。
“A lot of their leadership is really young, and they’ve kind of come up in various wars. They’ve seen themselves throughout this come out of really tight spots and kind of on top, so they’re pushing on open doors,” Alley said.
前总统巴拉克·奥巴马和乔·拜登也曾努力应对胡塞武装，同时避免陷入大规模冲突。因此，特朗普或许确实与他的民主党前任们有着某些共同点。
Former Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden also struggled to counter the Houthis without tipping into large-scale conflict. So yes, Trump might have something in common with his Democratic predecessors.
奥巴马至少批准过一次军事打击，并将其描述为对胡塞武装针对美国船只袭击的回应，其政府也在其他方面支持沙特。拜登则在胡塞武装于加沙战争最激烈时期加强袭击时，批准了一系列打击行动，同时声称此举是为了对抗以色列在该地区的利益。但拜登也缩减了美国对沙特战争行动的支持，并敦促利雅得与胡塞武装达成2022年的停火协议。
Obama authorized at least one strike, casting it as a response to Houthi attacks aimed at U.S. ships, and his administration supported the Saudis in other ways. Biden authorized a series of strikes as the Houthis stepped up attacks at the height of the Gaza war while claiming to be acting against Israeli interests in the region. But Biden also scaled back U.S. military support for the Saudi war effort and pushed Riyadh to reach a 2022 truce with the Houthis.
亲胡塞武装的也门记者侯赛因·阿尔-布凯希特认为，沙特破坏了2022年的停火协议，尤其是拒绝解除封锁。胡塞武装还指控沙特于7月轰炸了萨那的一座机场，当时一架伊朗飞机正准备降落。随后胡塞武装开始反击，停火协议也随之破裂。
Hussain Al-Bukhaiti, a pro-Houthi Yemeni journalist, argued that Saudi Arabia undermined that 2022 truce, especially by refusing to lift the blockade. The Houthis also allege the Saudis in July bombed an airport in Sanaa as an Iranian plane was about to land. The Houthis started striking back, and the truce collapsed.
阿尔-布凯希特将也门大量平民所遭受的苦难和流离失所归咎于沙特。
Al-Bukhaiti blamed the Saudis for the suffering and displacement of numerous Yemeni civilians.
“这关乎也门人民的生命，”阿尔-布凯提说。“荒谬的是，我们看到整个国际社会和沙特方面都在大声疾呼，油价和航运价格将会上涨。可也门人呢？”我必须在此插一句：胡塞武装是极具压迫性的统治者，而且治理国家的能力并不出色。一位人道主义官员将胡塞武装统治下的生活形容为“令人发指”。
“It’s about Yemeni lives,” Al-Bukhaiti said. “What is silly is that we see that all the international community and the Saudis are crying out loud that the price of oil will increase and the price of shipping is increasing. I mean, what about Yemenis?”I must interject here: The Houthis are highly repressive rulers and not great at governing. “Horrifying” is how one humanitarian official described life under the Houthis.
当我向阿尔-布凯提指出，胡塞武装正是在沙特王国努力消化伊朗战争带来的经济冲击时发动袭击的，他并未否认此举多少有些趁火打劫。“利用敌人的弱点并非错误，而我们的敌人就是沙特，”他说。
When I noted to Al-Bukhaiti that the Houthis struck the Saudis just as the kingdom is struggling to absorb the economic shock of the Iran war, he didn’t disagree that it was a tad opportunistic. “It is not wrong when you take advantage of the weakness of your enemy, and our enemy is Saudi,” he said.
沙特驻华盛顿大使馆拒绝发表评论。2015年曾对胡塞武装进行军事干预的利雅得，将这支民兵组织及其与伊朗的关系视为邻近地区的安全威胁，认为其最终可能危及沙特领土完整。
The Saudi Arabian Embassy in Washington declined to comment. Riyadh, which militarily intervened against the Houthis in 2015, views the militia and its ties to Iran as a next-door security risk that could eventually threaten Saudi territorial integrity.
路透社周五报道称，沙特计划在未来几周内对胡塞武装发动新一轮攻势。
Reuters reported Friday that the Saudis are planning a new assault on the Houthis in the coming weeks.
特朗普很可能希望尽可能长时间地避免介入沙特与胡塞武装的冲突。然而，如果胡塞武装变得更加大胆，不仅威胁曼德海峡，还可能威胁到该地区其他地方，那么这一情况可能会变得更加困难。
Trump likely wants to stay out of the Saudi-Houthi fight for as long as possible. It could get harder, though, if the Houthis grow more emboldened, threatening not just the Bab el-Mandeb Strait but also other parts of the region.
如果特朗普希望避免开辟新的战场，那么他几乎没有投入外交资源来解决这场冲突，就显得有些奇怪了。
If Trump wants to avoid opening another front, it’s strange that he has devoted little diplomatic muscle to resolving the conflict.
特朗普尚未任命负责沙特与胡塞武装冲突的美国特使；此前担任该职位的伦德金曾促成2022年的停火协议。目前也没有任何人担任美国驻也门或沙特大使。特朗普青睐的谈判代表，如史蒂夫·维特科夫和贾里德·库什纳，正忙于处理伊朗、加沙和乌克兰的冲突。此外，经常充当调解者的阿曼与美国目前的关系也不佳，这同样无助于局势改善。
Trump has not filled the role of the U.S. special envoy focused on the Saudi-Houthi fight; Lenderking, who last held that role, helped broker the 2022 truce. There is no one serving as U.S. ambassador to Yemen or Saudi Arabia. Trump’s favored negotiators, like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, have their hands full with the conflicts in Iran, Gaza and Ukraine. It doesn’t help that the Omanis, who often act as mediators, don’t have the best relationship with the U.S. at the moment.
胡塞武装有一个负责与外国人打交道的外交部门，通常是在阿曼进行接触。曾与胡塞谈判代表有过接触的前国际官员表示，这些人至少从短期来看，可能幽默、有魅力，而且注重交易。但这并不意味着与胡塞武装的外交工作会容易。
The Houthis have a diplomatic wing that deals with foreigners, often in Oman. Former international officials who have engaged with Houthi negotiators say they can be funny, charming and transactional, at least on a short-term basis. That’s not to say diplomacy with the Houthis would be easy.
胡塞武装的主要领导层位于也门，该组织的结构层级分明，宗教狂热，并且对外部世界几乎抱有偏执态度。
The main Houthi leadership is in Yemen, and the movement’s structure is hierarchical, religiously zealous and almost paranoid about the outside world.
马丁·格里菲斯曾是联合国也门问题特使，他是少数曾在也门与胡塞最高领导人阿卜杜勒-马利克·胡塞直接接触过的外国人。
Martin Griffiths, a former U.N. special envoy for Yemen, is the rare foreigner who has dealt directly with the top Houthi boss, Abdul-Malik Al-Houthi, in Yemen.
但这些会面都是在安全屋的屏幕后进行的。（他曾以为自己听到过胡塞在隔壁房间咳嗽。）格里菲斯表示，最终，即使美国或其他国家的谈判代表与胡塞代表表面上关系良好，胡塞武装仍然保持着距离，这使得准确理解他们的真实动机变得困难。
But those encounters were through screens in safe houses. (He thought he heard al-Houthi cough in a nearby room once.) Ultimately, even if U.S. or other negotiators have good relations on the surface with Houthi representatives, the Houthis still keep a distance that makes it challenging to understand their exact motivations, Griffiths said.
“我发现，在追求真相的过程中——这正是你我多年来一直在做的事情——他们始终难以捉摸，”他说。
“I found that in the search for truths, which is what we’ve all been doing, you and I, for these many years, they were elusive,” he said.