作者：Jorgelina do Rosario 和 Jorge Valero国际货币基金组织（IMF）将在数年来首次在其经济预估中使用部分委内瑞拉数据，因为这家总部位于华盛顿的贷款机构正加强与该国的接触。
By Jorgelina do Rosario and Jorge Valero The International Monetary Fund is set to use some Venezuelan data in its economic estimates for the first time in years, as the Washington-based lender ramps up engagement with the country.
这种与代理总统德尔西·罗德里格斯政府的加强合作，是在4月恢复正式接触之后进行的。7月，一位高级别的国际货币基金组织特使访问了加拉加斯，这是20多年来的首次，随后在9月初结束了一次工作组访问。
The enhanced cooperation with acting president Delcy Rodríguez’s government follows the resumption of formal engagement in April. A high-level IMF envoy visited Caracas in July for the first time in more than two decades, followed by a staff visit that ended early September.
据知情人士透露，由于该决定尚未公开，他们要求不具名。国际货币基金组织对委内瑞拉经济的评估现在将至少部分基于该国提供的数据，而不仅仅是基金组织工作人员的估算。
The fund’s assessment of Venezuela’s economy will now be based, at least in part, on data supplied by the country, rather than just IMF staff estimates, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the decision is not public.
这些人补充说，过去时期的信息将是官方数据与基金组织估算的混合，而2026年及以后的数据将是基金组织自己的预测。国际货币基金组织即将发布的《世界经济展望》报告定于10月13日发布。国际货币基金组织发言人拒绝立即置评。
Information from past periods will be a mix of official data and the fund’s estimates, while figures for 2026 and beyond will be the fund’s own projections, the people added. The IMF’s upcoming World Economic Outlook is set to be released Oct. 13. An IMF spokesperson declined to provide immediate comment.
3月，委内瑞拉中央银行发布了2025年的通胀数据。这是自2024年11月以来首次发布官方通胀数据，当时该行暂停了定期报告。自3月以来，它已恢复月度更新。
In March, Venezuela’s central bank released inflation data for 2025. That was the first official inflation publication since November 2024, when the bank halted regular reporting. Since March, it has resumed monthly updates.
数据共享正值委内瑞拉着手重组债务之际，这是一项庞大而复杂的工程，得到了美国——国际货币基金组织最大股东——的鼓励。
The data sharing comes as Venezuela embarks on restructuring its debt, a massive and complex undertaking encouraged by the US, the IMF’s biggest shareholder.
虽然国际货币基金组织表示委内瑞拉当局未向该贷款机构请求融资，但债务国共享数据将是迈向所谓“第四条款磋商”评估的关键一步。自2004年以来，国际货币基金组织尚未对委内瑞拉进行过例行经济审查。
While the IMF has said Venezuelan authorities haven’t requested financing from the lender, data sharing by a debtor country would be a critical step toward a so-called Article IV assessment. The IMF has not conducted the routine economic review for Venezuela since 2004.
多年来，委内瑞拉一直处于经济数据真空中，因为中央银行停止定期发布包括通胀和国内生产总值在内的基本指标，即使该国陷入了世界上持续时间最长的恶性通胀之一。
For years, Venezuela operated in an economic-data vacuum as the central bank stopped regularly publishing basic indicators including inflation and gross domestic product, even as the country descended into one of the world’s longest bouts of hyperinflation.
当官员确实公布数据时，经济学家往往持怀疑态度：例如，2018年，央行告诉国际货币基金组织，上一年通胀率已达到860%左右，远低于该组织2，818%的估计。可靠的官方统计数据的缺乏迫使经济学家和咨询公司依赖私人估计和替代衡量标准。
When officials did release figures, economists often treated them with skepticism: in 2018, for example, the central bank told the IMF that inflation had reached about 860% the previous year, far below the fund’s estimate of 2,818%. The dearth of credible official statistics forced economists and consultancies to rely on private estimates and alternative gauges.
作为深化与该国接触的一部分，国际货币基金组织计划明年在加拉加斯开设办事处。
As part of its deepening engagement with the country, the IMF aims to open an office in Caracas next year.
今年早些时候，国际货币基金组织指出，由于“缺乏与当局的讨论”以及数据不完整以及“将报告的指标与经济发展相协调”的挑战，预测委内瑞拉的经济前景很困难。当时，国际货币基金组织表示，应“谨慎解读”估计的经济指标。由于数据共享，国际货币基金组织更新的经济前景报告中的评估可能会发生变化。
Earlier this year, the IMF noted that projecting the economic outlook for Venezuela was difficult due to “the lack of discussions with the authorities” as well as incomplete data and challenges “in reconciling reported indicators with economic developments.”At the time, the IMF said that estimated economic indicators should be “interpreted with caution.”It’s possible that assessment could change in the IMF’s updated economic outlook report as a result of the data-sharing.