
受澳大利亚储备银行(RBA)加息以及燃油价格持续压力的驱动,澳大利亚10个月的消费者信心进一步下降,家庭对就业前景的担忧日益加剧。
Australia’s consumer confidence declined further in October, driven by the Reserve Bank’s interest-rate increase and ongoing pressure from fuel prices, with households reporting growing unease over the jobs outlook.
西太平洋银行(Westpac Banking Corp.)周二在一份声明中表示,消费者信心指数下降了4.7%,至80.4点,100点是悲观与乐观的分水岭。西太平洋银行称,在RBA做出决定后接受调查的40%受访者中,这一读数仅为67.2,这是一个令人担忧的疲软结果。
The Consumer Sentiment Index dropped 4.7% to 80.4 points, Westpac Banking Corp. said in a statement on Tuesday, with 100 being the dividing line between pessimists and optimists. The reading across the 40% of respondents surveyed after the RBA decision came in at 67.2, an alarmingly weak result, Westpac said.
西太平洋银行澳大利亚宏观预测主管马修·哈桑(Matthew Hassan)表示:“澳大利亚消费者仍然陷入一场看不到尽头的生存成本噩梦中。最新信心指数仅略高于80点,是自20世纪70年代初开始月度调查以来表现最差的四十次读数之一。”上周,RBA将其基准利率上调至4.6%的15年高点,试图重新控制通胀。这是今年以来的第四次加息,随着中东冲突的持续,借贷成本的上升和燃油价格的飙升让家庭承受的压力越来越大。哈桑说:“RBA的最新举措似乎让消费者深感不安。”
“Australian consumers remain stuck in a cost-of-living nightmare that seems to have no end in sight,” said Matthew Hassan, Westpac’s head of Australian macro-forecasting. “At just over 80, the latest sentiment index is amongst the forty worst reads since our monthly survey began in the early 1970s.”The RBA last week raised its key rate to a 15-year high of 4.6% as it tries to regain control over inflation. That was the fourth hike this year and has left households increasingly squeezed by both higher borrowing costs and escalating fuel prices as the Middle East conflict drags on. “The latest RBA move looks to have badly rattled consumers,” Hassan said.
然而,调查显示,尽管信心恶化,10月份与住房相关的信心却有所改善。此前,加息和政府税收政策的调整导致房地产市场深度低迷,9月份房价下跌了1.1%,回落至一年前的水平。
Yet despite the deterioration in confidence, housing-related sentiment improved in October, the survey showed. That comes as the rate hikes and government tax changes have deepened a slump, with prices falling 1.1% in September and retreating to levels last recorded a year earlier.
哈桑表示:“加息后出现改善的情况很少见,但也并非闻所未闻,特别是当买家情绪已经处于非常疲弱的水平时。在各子群体中,完全住房所有者、退休人员、25-34岁人群以及年收入超过8万澳元的人群,这种改善更为明显。”西太平洋银行预计,RBA将在11月的会议上再次加息。周二公布的报告还显示:
“Improvements following an interest rate rise are rare but not unheard of, particularly when buyer sentiment is already coming from a very weak level,” Hassan said. “Across sub-groups, the improvement was more pronounced for outright homeowners, retirees, 25–34-year-olds and those earning over A$80,000 a year.”Westpac expects the RBA will raise rates again at its November meeting. Tuesday’s report also showed: