由迈克尔·希思撰写，德意志银行股份公司表示，澳大利亚家户对利率上升的脆弱性远低于其高债务水平所显示的那样，其指出更强劲的家户资产负债表有助于借款人应对更为紧缩的货币政策。
Australian households are proving less vulnerable to interest-rate increases than their heavy debt loads might suggest, Deutsche Bank AG said, noting stronger household balance sheets are helping borrowers withstand tighter monetary policy.
宏观策略师拉克兰·戴南在周三发布的研究报告中表示，家户资产继续强劲增长，而债务相对于收入的比例已趋于稳定。在以债务对资产进行衡量的指标上，他估计家户杠杆率已降至1997年以来的最低水平。
Household assets have continued to grow strongly while debt relative to income has leveled off, macro strategist Lachlan Dynan said in a research note released Wednesday. On a measure that weighs debt against assets, he estimates household leverage has fallen to its lowest since 1997.
“因此，货币政策的现金流渠道似乎不如过去十年那么有效，而更广泛的家户资产负债表——超越住房部分——也可能有助于抵消软化房价可能引发的财富效应。”戴南表示。
“As a result, the cash-flow channel of monetary policy looks to be less potent vs the last decade, while the broader household balance sheet — beyond housing — may also be helping offset any resulting wealth effects from softer house prices,” Dynan said.
澳大利亚家户债务水平在发达国家中名列前茅，加上大多数借款人使用浮动利率，澳大利亚储备银行今年以来的四次加息直接传导到了抵押贷款还款中。这加上燃油成本飙升和房价下跌，本应把家户财务状况逼近极限。然而，2026年消费者支出实际上有所增强。
Australia has some of the highest household debt in the developed world, and combined with most borrowers being on variable rates, the Reserve Bank’s four hikes this year have flowed straight through to mortgage repayments. This, combined with surging fuel costs and falling property prices, should have pushed household finances toward their limit. Yet consumer spending has actually strengthened in 2026.
“担心利率会‘打垮’家户部门的担忧可能言过其实，”戴南表示。“在持续高企的核心通胀压力以及可能需要几个更多季度才能完全显现的能源影响的背景下，澳大利亚储备银行定价的风险再度偏向上行。”尽管上周澳大利亚储备银行在将现金利率升至15年高点4.6%时发布了更为鹰派的声明，但主席米切尔·布洛克在新闻发布会上的讲话被解读为更为鸽派，使得11月2日至3日的会议前景变得不确定，可能取决于此间公布的经济数据。
“Fears of rates ‘breaking’ the household sector may be overblown,” Dynan said. “In the context of persistently high core inflation pressures, and energy impacts that may take several more quarters to fully materialize, risks to RBA pricing are back to being skewed to the upside.”While the RBA delivered a hawkish statement last week when it raised the cash rate to a 15-year high of 4.6%, Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference was interpreted as more dovish, leaving the outlook for the Nov. 2-3 meeting open and likely dependent on economic data in the interim.
少数经济学家预计下个月将再次上调至4.85%，但中位数预测显示澳大利亚储备银行(RBA)董事会将维持关键利率不变。货币市场认为11月加息的可能性约为30%，12月为50-50，几乎完全消化了2027年3月会议上的利率上调。
A handful of economists expect a follow-up move next month to 4.85%, though the median estimate is that the RBA board will keep the key rate unchanged. Money markets see about a 30% chance of a hike in November, a 50-50 chance in December and are almost fully pricing a rate increase at the March 2027 meeting.