世界银行因人工智能相关出口的增长而上调了东亚和太平洋地区的增长预测，但同时警告称，该地区对人工智能繁荣的依赖使其可能受到全球科技支出逆转的冲击。
The World Bank has raised its growth forecast for the East Asia and Pacific region on the back of artificial intelligence-related exports, while warning that its reliance on the AI boom leaves it vulnerable to a potential global tech spending reversal.
该地区包括23个经济体，如中国、越南、印度尼西亚、马来西亚和泰国。
The region includes 23 economies, including China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.
根据世界银行周二发布的最新报告，预计今年东亚和太平洋地区经济将增长4.5%，比该行4月份的预测高出0.3个百分点。预计2027年和2028年的增长将放缓至4.4%和4.3%。在地区主要经济体中，越南的预测上调幅度最大，从原预测上调1.1个百分点至7.4%。
The EAP economy is expected to expand 4.5% this year, 0.3 percentage point more than the bank projected in April, according to its latest report released Tuesday. Growth is forecast to ease to 4.4% in 2027 and 4.3% in 2028. Vietnam received the biggest forecast upgrade among major economies of the region, up 1.1 percentage point to 7.4%.
然而，该地区的经济优势高度依赖人工智能相关的制造业和出口。世界银行表示，排除人工智能相关商品后，贸易增长“疲软甚至为负”。这些商品在该地区大多数经济体的出口增长中占比超过一半，在马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国和越南则超过70%。
The region's strength, however, is highly dependent on AI-related manufacturing and exports. Trade growth, excluding AI-related goods, has been "weak or negative," the bank said. Those products accounted for more than half of the export growth in most of the region's economies and more than 70% in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
报告指出，截至4月的12个月内，中国、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国和越南出口的人工智能相关商品总额达到1.4万亿美元。
China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam shipped $1.4 trillion of AI-related goods in the 12 months through April, according to the report.
官方数据显示，韩国9月出口增长83.5%，达到创纪录的1209亿美元，其中芯片占出口总额的一半。反映半导体在该国市场的主导地位，世界银行强调，截至4月底，仅两家芯片制造商——三星和SK海力士——就占基准科斯皮指数（Kospi）市值的43%。
Official data showed that South Korea's exports grew 83.5% in September to a record $120.9 billion, with chips making up half of those shipments. Reflecting the dominance of semiconductors in the country's market, the World Bank highlighted that just two chipmakers — Samsung and SK Hynix — accounted for 43% of the benchmark Kospi index's value as of end-April.
人工智能的风险则体现在支出端。世界银行表示，人工智能相关的资本支出已达到美国GDP的约6%，与2000年信息技术投资的高峰水平相当，而当前的周期“上升速度比此前任何周期都快，并且仍在加速”。
The AI risk is on the spending side. AI-related capital expenditure has reached about 6% of U.S. GDP, similar to the 2000 peak in information-technology investment, and the current cycle "has risen faster than either previous cycle and is still gaining speed," the bank said.
国际清算银行在6月发布的年度经济报告中曾警告称，当前经济繁荣的规模和速度与20世纪90年代的互联网泡沫及其他“狂热”现象相似。推动这一繁荣的融资渠道也缺乏透明度。该行表示，在2025年至2028年计划投入的2.9万亿美元人工智能资本支出中，预计有8000亿美元将来自私人信贷；2025年，与人工智能相关的贷款在私人信贷活动中的占比已升至34%，而过去五年平均仅为18%。今年，私人信贷组合已出现资产减值、资金流出和违约情况。
The Bank for International Settlements in its annual economic report in June had warned that the boom's scale and pace bears resemblance to the dot-com frenzy of the 1990s and other "manias." The financing driving the boom is also less transparent. Of the $2.9 trillion in AI capex planned for 2025-2028, $800 billion is expected to come from private credit, the bank said, where AI-related lending rose to 34% of activity in 2025 from an 18% average over the prior five years. Private credit portfolios have experienced markdowns, outflows and defaults this year.
该行指出，私人信贷市场“透明度较低，且尚未经历过严重经济衰退的考验”。
Private credit markets are "less visible, and have not been tested by a severe downturn," the bank said.
不过，报告称，在主要央行自2023年以来首次加息、金融环境进一步收紧的情况下，由充足流动性支撑的人工智能繁荣可能会放缓。美国联邦储备系统上个月加息，这是其三年多来的首次加息，并暗示今年还将再加息一次。
That said, the AI boom supported by abundant liquidity could slow due to the latest tightening of financial conditions as major central banks raise rates for the first time since 2023, according to the report. The U.S. Federal Reserve raised rates last month, its first increase in more than three years, and signaled one more to hike this year.
该机构表示，市场调整并不必然意味着人工智能超级周期会终结，但此前的投资“已经跑在了实际需求的前面”。
A correction may not necessarily mean a bust for the AI supercycle, but that investment "had run ahead of realized demand," the organization said.
该行指出，如果美国经济增长放缓1个百分点，其他新兴市场的经济增长预计将下降0.6个百分点，而投资受到的冲击将是这一幅度的两倍。“如果人工智能领域的增长放缓，将对东亚产生重大影响，因为该地区在人工智能供应链中占据重要地位。”银行融资是受影响最广泛的领域。在一些国家，银行以外币计价的负债规模相当可观——马来西亚占GDP的29.2%，菲律宾占20.7%。
A slowdown by 1 percentage point in U.S. growth cuts other emerging-market growth by an estimated 0.6 percentage point, with the hit to investment about twice as large, the bank said. "A slowdown concentrated in AI would be material for East Asia because of the region's prominence in the AI supply chain." Bank funding is the broadest exposure. Foreign-currency-denominated liabilities of banks appeared significant in some countries — 29.2% of GDP in Malaysia, 20.7% in the Philippines.
台湾统计部门最近将2026年的经济增长预测从9.6%上调至11%，归因于人工智能需求的增长；但同时也于6月警告称，“如果高科技行业面临逆风，对当地经济的负面影响可能超出预期。”
Taiwan's statistics bureau recently raised its 2026 growth forecast to 11% from 9.6% on AI demand, while warning in June that "if the high-tech sector faces headwinds, the negative impact on the local economy could be bigger than expected."