文/焦克莱 东盟加中国、日本和韩国比大多数经济体更容易受到人工智能热潮潜在崩溃的冲击，这可能引发金融市场和实体经济的震荡。
Asia plus China, Japan and South Korea are more at risk than most economies to any potential collapse in the artificial-intelligence boom, which could trigger shocks across financial markets and the real economy.
东盟加三宏观经济研究办公室（AMRO）在周一发布的《2026年金融稳定报告》中表示，该地区“特别脆弱”，因为它处于全球人工智能供应链的中心，且“日益融入与人工智能相关的金融市场”。
The region is “particularly exposed” because it’s at the center of global AI supply chains and “increasingly integrated into AI-related financial markets,” the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office said in its 2026 Financial Stability Report published on Monday.
报告称：“无序调整因此可能通过多种渠道传播——包括科技出口下降、投资组合损失、资本外流、杠杆科技和基础设施企业的再融资压力，以及投资者信心走弱。”
“A disorderly correction could therefore propagate through multiple channels — including lower technology exports, portfolio losses, capital outflows, refinancing pressure on leveraged technology and infrastructure firms, and weaker investor confidence,” it said.
这份报告发布之际，投资者对人工智能热潮的担忧日益加剧，包括科技公司的高估值、芯片和数据中心支出的激增，以及循环融资交易——即公司似乎在相互提供资金。科技相关出口一直在帮助亚洲抵御高能源价格和美国关税的影响。
The report comes amid growing investor concern about the AI boom, including the high valuation of tech companies, the surge in spending on chips and data centers, and circular financing deals in which companies appear to be funding each other. Tech-related exports have been helping Asia withstand the impact of high energy prices and US tariffs.
技术周期中的大部分实物生产发生在亚洲，从韩国的存储芯片到马来西亚的半导体封装测试。AMRO表示，该地区占全球人工智能相关贸易增长的三分之二。如果人工智能需求突然不足，资本支出的回撤将削弱出口收入、投资和更广泛的经济增长。
Much of the physical production in the technology cycle takes place in Asia, from memory chips in South Korea to semiconductor assembly in Malaysia. The region accounted for two-thirds of the growth in global AI-related trade, AMRO said. Should AI demand suddenly fall short, a pullback in capital spending would undermine export revenues, investments and broader economic growth.
根据AMRO的说法，一些地区股票市场也高度集中于人工智能，如韩国，使其面临价格大幅回调的风险。其他市场如日本和香港已开始与美国人工智能和科技公司紧密同步变动，这意味着即使没有国内触发因素，冲击也可能传导过来。
Some regional equity markets are also heavily concentrated on AI, such as South Korea, exposing them to a sharp correction in prices. Other markets like Japan and Hong Kong have come to move closely in line with US AI and technology firms, meaning shocks could also be transmitted even absent a domestic trigger, according to AMRO.
随着超大规模企业越来越多地转向借贷为昂贵的数据中心建设提供资金，如果AI回报令人失望，更高的杠杆可能会放大冲击，报告称。不透明的私人信贷市场和循环融资交易可能会加剧不稳定性。
As hyperscalers increasingly turn to borrowings to fund costly data center buildouts, higher leverage could amplify shocks if AI returns disappoint, the report said. Opaque private credit markets and circular financing deals could worsen the instability.
“AI相关金融资产的急剧调整可能通过强制去杠杆和更严格的信贷条件蔓延至更广泛的金融体系，”AMRO表示。
“A sharp correction in AI-related financial assets could spill over to the broader financial system through forced deleveraging and tighter credit conditions,” AMRO said.
全球央行行长，从英格兰银行到新加坡金融管理局，越来越多地对巨额AI投资是否可持续提出担忧。该技术以惊人的速度发展，但开发商之间的激烈竞争、更高的借贷成本以及对数据中心和AI安全威胁日益增长的抵制，都引发了担忧。
Central bankers around the world, from the Bank of England to the Monetary Authority of Singapore, have increasingly raised concerns about whether massive AI investments can be sustainable. The technology has developed at breakneck speed, but stiff competition among developers, higher borrowing costs and growing pushback against data centers and AI’s security threats have raised concerns.