香港讯 -- 经济学家预估，亚洲最大经济体中国在7至9月季度同比增长4.4%，仅略高于上一季度，因强劲出口和人工智能相关产业不足以抵消房地产和消费支出持续低迷的影响。
HONG KONG -- China economists estimate that Asia's largest economy grew 4.4% on the year in the July-September quarter, only marginally higher than the previous term, as strong exports and artificial intelligence-related sectors were not enough to offset continued sluggishness in real estate and consumer spending.
该调查由日经新闻和日经QUICK News于上月底进行。22位经济学家对中国经济增长的预测区间为4.0%至4.8%，平均值比4至6月季度录得的4.3%增幅高出0.1个百分点。若结果为4.4%，将连续第二个季度低于北京设定的全年增长目标区间4.5%至5.0%。
The survey was conducted by Nikkei and Nikkei QUICK News at the end of last month. Forecasts for China's growth by 22 economists ranged from 4.0% to 4.8%, with the average reaching 0.1 percentage point higher than the 4.3% expansion the country recorded for the April-June quarter. A result of 4.4% would be below Beijing's full-year target range of between 4.5% and 5.0% growth for a second consecutive quarter.
经季节性调整的环比增长率平均预测值为1.1%，略高于上一季度的0.9%，该指标反映经济动能。
The average forecast for the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth rate, an indicator of economic momentum, was 1.1%, slightly higher than the 0.9% recorded in the previous quarter.
英国资管公司贝利吉福德全球债券主管Sally Greig表示，中国经济“在夏季失去了动能”。她指出，8月社会消费品零售总额同比增速疲软，仅为0.4%，低于上月的0.6%；前八个月固定资产投资下降7.2%，房地产开发投资同比下降近20%。
Sally Greig, head of global bonds at British asset manager Baillie Gifford, said the Chinese economy "has lost momentum through the summer." She pointed to the weak 0.4% growth rate in retail sales in August, down from 0.6% in the previous month, as well as a 7.2% decline in fixed-asset investment in the first eight months and a nearly 20% year-on-year drop in property investment.
Greig称：“出口和AI相关制造业仍提供支撑，但两者均不足以抵消疲弱的居民需求和房地产投资周期。”荷兰国际集团批发银行大中华区首席经济学家Lynn Song表示，低迷的房地产市场继续拖累整体经济。据估算，房地产占中国家庭资产的比重高达70%。
"Exports and AI-related manufacturing have remained supportive, but neither is sufficient to offset weak household demand and the property investment cycle," Greig said. Domestic demand "softened more than expected" after the boost from a consumer trade-in program faded Lynn Song, chief greater China economist at ING's wholesale banking, said the ailing real estate market continues to weigh down the overall economy. Real estate is estimated to account for up to 70% of household assets in China.
他表示：“房地产低迷影响了消费和投资意愿，也是过去几年拖累经济的最大因素之一。”短期内，一线城市房价“可能继续企稳”，但由于库存水平上升，“投资复苏仍需要时间”。
"The property downturn has impacted consumption and investment appetite, and has been one of the biggest factors dragging the economy in the past few years," he said. Prices in higher-tier cities "may continue to stabilize" in the near term, but "a recovery of investment will still take time," due to elevated inventory levels.
前8个月新房销售面积同比下降13%，较1 - 7月12.7%的跌幅加快，而新房价格没有触底迹象。
The floor area of new homes sold during the first eight months dropped by 13% year-on-year, accelerating from a 12.7% fall in the January-July period, while prices of new homes showed no signs of bottoming out.
尽管如此，许多经济学家仍不愿意降低年度预测。全年增长的平均预测仍为4.6%，与三个月前的调查持平。普遍观点是，政府将努力达到4.5%目标范围的低端。
Still, many economists were reluctant to lower their annual forecasts. The average projection for full-year growth remained at 4.6%, unchanged from the survey three months earlier. The prevailing view was that the government would strive to reach the lower end of its target range at 4.5%.
财政部与其他政府部门上周宣布为首次购房者提供抵押贷款补贴，许多观察人士预计将进一步的政策干预。
The Ministry of Finance, with other government departments, last week announced mortgage subsidies for first-time homebuyers, and many observers expect further policy interventions.
瑞穗银行（中国）高级经济学家伊藤英树表示，“内需下行压力正在加剧。“他估计，如果没有额外的经济刺激措施，全年经济增长率将达到4.3%。但他预计政府将采取更多措施，例如提前发行原定于明年发行的地方政府特殊用途债券，以增加基础设施投资，确保实现最低增长目标。
Hideki Ito, senior economist at Mizuho Bank (China), said that "downward pressure on domestic demand is intensifying." He estimates that growth would come in at 4.3% for the full year without additional economic stimulus. But he anticipates that the government will take more steps, such as early issuance of local government special-purpose bonds originally scheduled for next year, to boost infrastructure investment and ensure the minimum growth target is met.
DWS首席亚太投资官Ivy Ng指出，“增长支持与其说是受宣布的财政能力的限制，不如说是受实施的限制。她表示，尽管截至7月底，仍有6.1万亿元（9.1亿美元）的年度政府债券额度未使用，但“地方项目审查、债务压力和薄弱的基础设施管道影响了部署速度”。挑战在于提振经济，同时遏制随意发展。
Ivy Ng, chief Asia-Pacific investment officer at DWS, points out that "growth support is constrained less by announced fiscal capacity than by implementation." She said that "local project scrutiny, debt pressures and a thin infrastructure pipeline have affected the pace of deployment," even though 6.1 trillion yuan ($910 million) of annual government bond quota remained unused as of the end of July. The challenge lies in boosting the economy while curbing haphazard development.
2023年8月，中国碧桂园的一个住宅开发项目在天津拍摄。房地产市场的低迷继续给国家经济带来压力。
A residential development by China's Country Garden is pictured in Tianjin in August 2023. The real estate market downturn continues to weigh on the nation's economy.
摩根大通（J.P.Morgan）首席中国经济学家朱锋预计，“政策制定者将首先关注于执行已经批准的财政支出。尽管“如果增长数据因国内需求疲软或外部不利因素带来的进一步压力而令人失望，”额外的财政措施仍有可能，但他认为，货币宽松政策更有可能比他在第四季度降息0.1个百分点的基本假设来得更早。
Zhu Feng, chief China economist at J.P. Morgan, expects "policymakers to focus first on executing already budgeted-in fiscal spending." While additional fiscal measures "remain possible if growth numbers disappoint with further pressure from weak domestic demand or external headwinds," he believes monetary easing is more likely to come earlier than his base case scenario of a 0.1 percentage point cut in the final quarter.
在调查中，专家认为经济两极分化是一种结构性转变，将影响经济前景。
In the survey, experts cited polarization of the economy as a structural shift that will shape the outlook.
中国的人工智能相关产业，如电子元件制造业，已经增加了其全球影响力。8月份出口同比增长25%，连续10个月增长。但这种力量并没有转化为更大的整体势头，行业之间的差距扩大了。
China's AI-related industries, such as manufacturing of electronic components, have increased their global presence. Exports rose 25% year-on-year in August, marking 10 consecutive months of growth. But this strength has not translated into more overall momentum, and the disparity between sectors has widened.
瑞士私人银行宝盛（Julius Baer）经济学家索菲·阿尔马特（Sophie Altermatt）表示，“人工智能投资周期是中国日益重要的弹性来源。”但这“不能完全抵消房地产低迷和整体内需疲软。“资本和技能密集型科技行业”的国内经济足迹比房地产更窄”，这影响了建筑业、家庭财富、地方政府收入和广泛的上下游行业的需求。她说：“人工智能可以支持总体GDP和出口增长，但它本身无法恢复家庭信心或带来广泛的内需复苏。”
The "AI investment cycle is an increasingly important source of resilience for China," said Sophie Altermatt, economist at Swiss private bank Julius Baer. But this "cannot fully offset the property downturn and weak domestic demand overall." The capital- and skill-intensive tech sector "has a narrower domestic economic footprint than real estate," which affects construction, household wealth, local-government revenue and demand across a broad range of upstream and downstream industries. "AI can support headline GDP and export growth, but it cannot by itself restore household confidence or generate a broad-based recovery in domestic demand," she said.
Union Bancaire Privee董事总经理卡洛斯·卡萨诺瓦（Carlos Casanova）警告称，中国“以高科技生产与国内需求之间的分歧为特征的K型复苏”将进一步恶化。这位驻香港的高级亚洲经济学家强调，“技术主导的出口周期仍然未能带来有意义的内需复苏和对更广泛经济的积极溢出效应。三井住友DS资产管理公司首席亚洲策略师佐野哲司观察到，“人工智能驱动的劳动力替代已经在低附加值行业发生”，并列举了自动无人机送货取代人力送货人员等例子。
Carlos Casanova, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee, warned that China's "K-shaped recovery, characterized by a divergence between high-tech production and domestic demand, is set to worsen." The Hong Kong-based senior Asia economist stressed that the "technology-led export cycle is still failing to generate a meaningful recovery in domestic demand and positive spillovers to the broader economy." Tetsuji Sano, chief Asia strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, observed that "AI-driven displacement of human labor is already underway in low-value-added sectors," citing examples such as automated drone deliveries replacing human delivery workers.
鉴于对出口的持续依赖，一个关键问题是与美国的贸易紧张局势是否可以得到控制。
Given the continued reliance on exports, a key question is whether trade tensions with the U.S. can be managed.
在习近平主席最近访问华盛顿时，荷兰银行高级经济学家阿尔扬·范戴克惠曾表示，中国的主要目标是“维护双边关系的护栏”。“关税休战已延长两个月，但峰会”并未取得真正的突破。"
On President Xi Jinping's recent visit to Washington, Arjen van Dijkhuizen, senior economist at ABN AMRO Bank, said the main goal for China was "preserving the guardrails around the bilateral relationship." The tariff truce has been extended for two months, but the summit "has not resulted in real breakthroughs."
该调查还强调了人们对厄尔尼诺气候现象的担忧。三菱日联银行香港经济研究室主任范晓晨表示，“在中国，它可能会引发南方的洪水和北方的干旱”，这可能“可能会推高农产品价格”。“在货币方面，经济学家的普遍观点是人民币将逐步升值2026年底的平均预测为6.68元兑1美元，与上次调查的6.73元相比，人民币将转向走强。受访者预计到2027年底将进一步升值至6.58元。
The survey also highlighted concerns regarding the El Nino climate phenomenon "In China, it could trigger floods in the south and droughts in the north," said Fan Xiaochen, director of economic research office in Hong Kong at MUFG Bank, which could "potentially drive up agricultural commodity prices." On the currency front, the prevailing view of the economists is that the yuan will appreciate gradually The average forecast for the end of 2026 stands at 6.68 yuan per dollar, marking a shift toward a stronger yuan compared to the previous survey's 6.73 yuan.
安本（Aberdeen）资深新兴市场经济学家罗伯特？吉尔胡利（Robert Gilhooly）表示，“从边际上看，外汇走强应有助于外国投资者对人民币资产的需求”。不过，他补充称，“低收益率和可能再次爆发的地缘政治紧张局势将继续抑制投资者的热情。"回答调查的经济学家按组织的字母顺序排列：安本投资（Aberdeen Investments）新兴市场高级经济学家Robert Gilhooly;荷兰银行（ABN AMRO Bank）高级经济学家Arjen van Dijkhuizen;安联贸易（Allianz Trade）亚太区经济学家Gandy Tallon; Baillie Gifford全球债券主管Sally Greig;巴克莱（Barclays）高级中国经济学家周盈科;法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）首席中国经济学家荣洁莲（Jacqueline Rong）;中信银行（国际）首席经济学家丁磊; DWS亚太区首席投资官Ivy Ng; Eastspring Investments经济学家Viola Wang;光大证券国际证券策略师Kenny Ng;惠誉评级经济总监Alex Muscatelli;荷兰国际集团批发银行大中华区首席经济学家Lynn Song; www.example.com首席经济学家沈建光JD.com;中国首席经济学家朱锋，摩根大通;瑞士宝盛经济学家Sophie Altermatt;麦格理首席中国经济学家Larry Hu;瑞穗银行（中国）高级经济学家Hideaki Ito;穆迪分析经济学家Dave Chia;经济研究室主任范晓晨（香港），三菱日联银行; Tetsuji Sano，首席亚洲策略师，三井住友DS资产管理公司; Louis Kuijs，亚太首席经济学家，标准普尔全球评级; Carlos Casanova，Union Bancaire Privee亚洲董事总经理兼高级经济学家
Respondents projected further appreciation to 6.58 yuan by the end of 2027. "At the margin, FX strength should help foreign investor demand" for yuan assets, said Robert Gilhooly, senior emerging markets economist at Aberdeen. He added, however, that "low yields and geopolitical tensions potentially flaring up once again will continue to temper investor enthusiasm." The economists who responded to the survey, in alphabetical order by organization: Robert Gilhooly, senior emerging markets economist, Aberdeen Investments; Arjen van Dijkhuizen, senior economist, ABN AMRO Bank; Garance Tallon, APAC economist, Allianz Trade; Sally Greig, head of global bonds at Baillie Gifford; Zhou Yingke, senior China economist, Barclays; Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist, BNP Paribas; Allen Ding, chief economist, China CITIC Bank International; Ivy Ng, APAC chief investment officer at DWS; Viola Wang, economist at Eastspring Investments; Kenny Ng, securities strategist, Everbright Securities International; Alex Muscatelli, director of economics, Fitch Ratings; Lynn Song, chief economist, greater China, ING Wholesale Banking; Shen Jianguang, chief economist, JD.com; Zhu Feng, chief China economist, J.P. Morgan; Sophie Altermatt, economist, Julius Baer; Larry Hu, chief China economist, Macquarie; Hideaki Ito, senior economist, Mizuho Bank (China); Dave Chia, economist, Moody's Analytics; Fan Xiaochen, director of economic research office (Hong Kong), MUFG Bank; Tetsuji Sano, chief Asia strategist, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management; Louis Kuijs, Asia-Pacific chief economist, S&P Global Ratings; Carlos Casanova, managing director and senior economist Asia, Union Bancaire Privee