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中国经济增长反弹超出预期,逼近年度目标China’s growth rebound tops forecasts to close in on annual goal

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中国的增长在第三季度加速超过预期,提升了经济实现北京年度目标的可能性,并削弱了进一步宽松措施的前景。

China’s growth accelerated more than expected in the third quarter, boosting the odds of the economy reaching Beijing’s annual target and dimming the prospects for additional easing measures.

根据国家统计局周一发布的数据,国内生产总值同比增长4.5%,而第二季度为4.3%。这高于彭博社调查的经济学家的中位数预测4.4%。

Gross domestic product grew 4.5% from a year ago after a gain of 4.3% in the second quarter, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, compared with the median forecast of 4.4% by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

这使得今年头九个月的累计增长达到4.6%,处于政府年度目标4.5%至5%的范围内。

That took expansion in the first nine months of the year to 4.6% — within the government’s annual goal of 4.5% to 5%.“Bigger fiscal spending helped both fixed asset investment and retail sales,” said Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group.

“更大的财政支出既拉动了固定资产投资,也提振了零售销售,”澳大利亚及新西兰银行集团高级中国策略师邢自鹏表示。“复苏仍不够稳固,因为财政前景不稳定。问题在于未来财政扩张能起到多大作用。我们仍然看到2027年存在下行风险。”

“The recovery remains unsolid because the fiscal outlook is not stable. The question will be how much fiscal expansion can do in the future. We still see a downside risk to 2027.”

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