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Meta Muse助力AMD,AI发展势头转向个人代理Meta Muse gives AMD a boost as AI momentum shifts to personal agents

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个人AI代理热潮正在为英特尔带来新的活力,此前该公司多年来一直目睹英伟达及其GPU主导人工智能市场。

The personal AI agent boom is giving Intel new life after the companies spent years watching Nvidia and its GPUs dominate the artificial intelligence market.

中央处理器(CPU)曾是服务器的主要工作马力,在ChatGPT发布和生成式AI时代开启之前,一直是计算机服务器的主要驱动力。如今CPU又回到了舞台上,提升了市场领导者AMD和英特尔的业绩,这些公司的芯片专门用于驱动长时间运行的代理,可以独立工作数小时。

The central processing unit (CPU) was once the primary workhorse of a computer server before Nvidia's graphics processing units took center stage with the launch of ChatGPT and the start of the generative AI era. Now CPUs are back, lifting the fortunes of market leaders AMD and Intel, whose chips specialize in powering long-running agents that can work for hours on their own.

上周OpenAI发布了其AI代理Dots,紧随Meta公司于9月初推出Muse的脚步。Muse的走红速度如此之快,以至于在不到两周的时间内便登上了苹果App Store的榜首。早在此之前,AMD和英特尔今年已因CPU需求激增而成为股票市场的巨大赢家,但最近一个月更是势头更劲,分别上涨32%和21%,超过了整个科技行业的大盘股。

Last week OpenAI released its AI agent Dots, following the lead of Meta which debuted Muse in early September. Muse caught on so quickly that it topped the Apple App Store in less than two weeks Well before that, AMD and Intel were already huge winners on the stock market this year due largely to surging demand for CPUs, but they've picked up steam in the past month, jumping 32% and 21%, respectively, beating all of tech's megacaps.

AMD在CPU和GPU领域的日益增强实力已将该公司推入万亿美元市值俱乐部。"随着越来越多的代理被创建和开发出来,以及越来越多的人开始使用它们处理更多任务,工作负载将开始从GPU转移到CPU上,"信号65公司总裁瑞安·舒特(Ryan Shrout)表示,该公司专注于AI硬件和成本咨询。

AMD's growing strength in both CPUs and GPUs has pushed the company into the trillion-dollar market cap club. "As more agents are created and developed, and more people start to use them for more tasks, it's going to start to shift the workload away from GPUs and onto CPUs," said Ryan Shrout, president of Signal65, which consults on AI hardware and costs.

用户通过询问代理了解到新代理背后的动力。Muse告诉用户它运行在AMD驱动的计算机上,而Dots则表示它运行在由AMD的EPYC品牌CPU驱动的虚拟计算机上。

Users learned about the power behind the new agents by asking them. Muse tells users that it runs on an AMD-powered computer, while Dots said it runs on a virtual computer powered by AMD's EPYC-branded CPU.

Meta公司的一位发言人告诉CNBC,该公司设计其系统以使用任何可用的CPU类型。"我们在硬件上采取多样化的方法,设计上在很大程度上是CPU中立的,这给了我们获取容量的最大灵活性,"Meta公司发言人在一份声明中表示。

A Meta spokesperson told CNBC that the company designed its system to use whatever kind of CPU is available. "We take a diverse approach to our hardware and are largely CPU-agnostic by design, which gives us the most flexibility in acquiring capacity," a Meta spokesperson said in a statement.

OpenAI同样使用多家CPU供应商,这意味着AMD并不是唯一的选择。

OpenAI similarly uses multiple CPU providers, meaning AMD isn't the only game in town.

大部分服务器在超大规模-亚马逊,谷歌,Meta和微软-使用英特尔或AMD制造的CPU。但几乎每个主要的云计算提供商也在开发自己的定制芯片,通常是基于技术。Arm于3月份宣布为代理商推出自己的处理器,Meta是首个客户,此后其股价上涨了一倍多。

Most servers at hyperscalers —Amazon Google Meta and Microsoft— use CPUs made by Intel or AMD. But nearly every major cloud provider is also developing custom chips of their own, typically based on technology. Arm announced its own CPU for agents in March, with Meta as the debut customer, and its stock price has more than doubled since.

今年早些时候,Nvidia发布了Vera --一款完全重新设计的中央处理器--以及一个仅装满中央处理器的整个机架。该芯片巨头表示,它专门为代理商打造了新的Vera中央处理器,并预计到2030年,中央处理器将成为一个价值2000亿美元的市场。

Earlier this year, Nvidia released Vera — a fully redesigned central processor — along with an entire rack filled only with the CPUs The chip giant says it built the new Vera CPUs specifically for agents and expects CPUs to be a $200 billion market by 2030.

但分析师表示,这是芯片行业的一部分,而英伟达目前并不是最受欢迎的。

But it's one part of the chip industry where Nvidia isn't currently the favorite, analysts say.

瑞穗证券分析师乔丹·克莱因(Jordan Klein)在接受采访时表示:“这只是一款新产品,他们将与许多不同的参与者竞争。”他补充说,他相信AMD目前拥有“最好的产品”。“中央处理器正在推动AMD的健康增长。截至6月份的季度,该公司数据中心业务的收入增加了一倍多,达到67亿美元,占总销售额的近60%。

"It's just a new product and they're going to be competing against a lot of different players," Jordan Klein, an analyst at Mizuho Securities, said in an interview, adding that he believes AMD currently has the "best product." CPUs are driving a healthy portion of AMD's growth. Revenue in the company's data center business more than doubled to $6.7 billion in the quarter ended June, accounting for almost 60% of total sales.

在过去8到10个月里,就代理使用而言,对话发生了很大变化,”AMD高级副总裁兼计算和企业人工智能总经理Dan McNamara表示。麦克纳马拉补充说,中央处理器销量将会“真正增长”。“图形处理器认为,中央处理器做Muse、Dots,甚至OpenAI的Codex等编码软件都使用人工智能模型来规划可以自主运行的任务。Futurum Group首席执行官丹尼尔·纽曼(Daniel Newman)解释说,代理商需要自己的计算机,可以在后台运行数小时甚至数天。

The conversation has changed quite a bit over the last eight to 10 months in terms of agentic usage," said Dan McNamara, AMD's senior vice president and general manager of compute and enterprise AI. McNamara added that CPU sales are going to "really ramp." GPUs think, CPUs do Muse, Dots and even coding software like OpenAI's Codex use AI models to plan tasks that can run autonomously. The agents need their own computer that can run for hours or even days in the background, explained Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman.

推理或处理人工智能模型仍然需要图形处理器,但代理也需要一个中央处理器。

GPUs are still needed for inference, or processing an AI model, but an agent also needs a CPU.

纽曼说:“实际上,中央处理器正在执行工作流程,而中央处理器正在进行思考。”

"CPUs are actually performing the workflows while GPUs are doing the thinking," Newman said.

Meta和OpenAI使用虚拟机,将服务器划分为几台更轻的虚拟计算机,因此一台服务器可以支持数十个用户。

Meta and OpenAI use virtual machines, which partition a server into several lighter virtual computers, so one server can support scores of users.

一些AMD EPYC处理器拥有多达192个CPU内核。根据基准测试和代理本身的情况,Muse的虚拟计算机使用两个内核,而Dots使用九个内核。CPU比GPU便宜。

Some AMD EPYC processors have up to 192 CPU cores. According to benchmarks and the agents themselves, Muse's virtual computer uses two cores and Dots uses nine. CPUs are less expensive than GPUs.

基准测试和查询显示,Dots使用AMD EPYC 9V74 CPU,该CPU可从经销商处以低于3000美元的价格购买。据报道,Meta用于Muse的EPYC 9D25在二手市场上的价格甚至更低。单块Nvidia GPU的价格可能超过10倍,而且它们通常以数百或数千块的集群出售。

Benchmarks and queries show Dots using an AMD EPYC 9V74 CPU, which is available from resellers for under $3,000. The EPYC 9D25 reportedly used by Meta for Muse costs even less on the secondary market. Nvidia GPUs can cost more than 10 times that for a single chip, and they're usually sold in clusters of hundreds or thousands of chips.

投资者正关注Meta如何为Muse用户提供服务,据Sensor Tower报告,自上月发布以来下载量已超过500万次。

Investors are watching how Meta plans to serve Muse users, after downloads surpassed 5 million since last month's launch, according to Sensor Tower.

摩根士丹利估计Muse的服务成本为每月3美元至130美元,平均每用户37美元,具体取决于推理使用情况。

Morgan Stanley estimates Muse's serving costs at $3 to $130 per month, with an average of $37 per user, depending on inference usage.

该公司表示,Meta的代理可能会占据AMD 2026年芯片销售的20%。CPU有着巨大的赚钱潜力,预计该领域的增长速度正在加快。

The firm says Meta's agent could account for 20% of AMD's 2026 chip sales. There's a lot of money to be made in CPUs, and forecasts for the segment's growth are accelerating.

Futurum估计2027年总CPU销售额将达到1180亿美元,几乎是该公司5月份之前预测的两倍。

Futurum estimates $118 billion in total CPU sales in 2027, almost double the firm's previous forecast in May.

7月份,AMD预测整个CPU市场在2030年的销售额将达到2200亿美元,高于之前对2025年的600亿美元预测。AMD在7月表示,它希望占据超过一半的市场份额。

In July, AMD predicted the entire CPU market would hit $220 billion in sales in 2030, up from a previous 2025 forecast of $60 billion. AMD said in July that it expects to take more than half of the market.

根据8月份的报告,AMD目前在x86 CPU单位市场中占据约46%的份额,Intel也看到了需求的激增。

AMD currently commands about 46% of the market for x86 CPU units, Mercury Research said in August Intel is also seeing a surge in demand.

但AMD在超大规模数据中心方面已经站稳脚跟,这也是许多代理虚拟机将部署的地方。它还享有使用x86架构的优势,这使得代理可以使用旧软件而无需担心兼容性问题。

But AMD has a foothold with hyperscalers, which is where many of the virtual machines for agents will be deployed. It also has the benefit of using an x86 architecture for its chips, allowing agents to use older software without worrying about compatibility issues.

AMD凯lein表示,AMD可能从中受益最大,因为他们拥有最大的市场份额以及云端超大规模扩展者在CPU领域的优势,并补充道他不会排除Nvidia的可能性。凯lein表示:“如果你是一家能够同时供应这两种芯片的公司,你就处于最佳位置。”

"AMD is probably getting the most of this because they have the largest market share and the cloud hyperscaler world for CPUs," Klein said, adding that he "wouldn't rule Nvidia out." "If you are a company that can supply both types of chips, you're in the best position," Klein said.

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