由查尔斯·戈里瓦尼、格兰特·史密斯和亚历克斯·隆利撰写 贝壳石油公司首席执行官表示，中东地区的石油流量已恢复至冲突前水平的约80%，这是对该地区出口如何反弹的最权威评估之一。
Oil flows from the Middle East are at about 80% of pre-conflict volumes, the chief executive officer of Shell Plc said, offering one of the most authoritative assessments yet of how the region’s exports are rebounding.
“尽管发生了这么多事情，我们现在已接近冲突前水平的80%以上，这显示了许多这些国家在继续履行向世界供应的承诺方面所展现出的韧性，”赛旺周二在伦敦的能源情报论坛上表示。
“Despite everything happening, we’re now close to 80-plus percent of prewar levels, showing the resilience of many of these nations to continue to honor their commitments to supply the world,” Wael Sawan said at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on Tuesday.
尽管多家大型银行和航运分析公司也认为流量正在接近冲突前水平，但关于确切数字仍存在争论。通过霍尔木兹海峡和红海部分地区的船只实际数量之所以难以确定，是因为船舰经常关闭它们的卫星信号，使得货物计数变得更加困难。
While several big banks and shipping analytics firms have also suggested flows are approaching pre-conflict levels, there continues to be a debate around the precise figures. The actual number of vessels going in and out of the Strait of Hormuz, and parts of the Red Sea, is obscured by the fact that ships are frequently switching off their satellite signals, making it harder to count cargoes.
这使得分析人士和交易商不得不依赖卫星图像和现场信息，以了解确切的流动情况。
That leaves analysts and traders reliant on satellite imagery and on-the-ground information for a sense of exactly how much is moving.
赛旺表示，伊朗战争也使得能源安全再次成为焦点。上周，七国集团宣布计划从应急储备中释放多达1亿桶的石油，凸显了在发生严重供应中断时这些缓冲措施的必要性。与此同时，中东生产国正在研究新的管道，以增加更多的石油出口路线。
Sawan said the Iran war is also bringing energy security back into focus. Group of Seven nations last week announced a plan to release as much as 100 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, underscoring the need for such buffers in the event of severe supply disruptions. At the same time, Middle Eastern producers are studying new pipelines to add more exit routes for their oil.
“人们再次认识到，没有能源安全就无法拥有国家安全，”赛旺说。“你无法拥有不建立在坚实能源战略基础上的工业或经济战略。”他还提醒说，战争持续的时间越长，市场持续管理这种 disruption 的难度就越大。尽管通过霍尔木兹海峡的流量有所增加，但尚未完全恢复正常，而如果不是由于中国需求下降和其他地区的产量增加，这种 crunch 就会更加严重。
“There’s a recognition once again that you cannot have national security without energy security,” Sawan said. “You cannot have an industrial or an economic strategy that is not underpinned with a solid energy strategy.”He also cautioned that the longer the war continues, the harder it will be for markets to continue managing the disruption. While flows through Hormuz have risen, they’re not yet back to normal, and the crunch would have been worse were it not for a drop in Chinese demand and production ramp-ups elsewhere.
“我们或许已经缓解了危机带来的最恶劣影响，但这种做法能维持的时间有限，否则新的问题仍会接踵而至，”他说道。
“We have maybe softened the worst impacts of the crisis, but there is only so long that you can continue to do that without further discontinuities emerging,” he said.