们正在思考的一个重大问题是：有多少消费者正在等待iPhone Duo的发布？
A big question Apple Inc. analysts are asking is: How many consumers are waiting for the iPhone Duo?
这个答案对苹果今年乃至未来的股价至关重要。新的iPhone Pro系列已经上市近三个星期，从一开始分析师们就注意到，与去年的Pro型号相比，消费者的兴趣相对平淡。
The answer is hugely important to Apple’s stock this year and beyond. The new iPhone Pro range has been out for nearly three weeks, and from the get-go analysts noted somewhat flat consumer interest compared with last year’s Pro models.
有一个观点认为，许多潜在的买家正在等待苹果即将推出的折叠屏新机型，但这款手机要等到10月23日才能上市。
One thesis is that a significant number of would-be buyers are waiting for Apple’s new foldable model, which doesn’t come out until Oct. 23.
如果这一观点正确，那么对于苹果、其投资者以及新任首席执行官约翰·特诺斯来说都是个好消息。特诺斯上任以来渴望推出一款爆款产品。定价为1,999美元的Duo将提升iPhone的平均售价——这一指标备受华尔街关注。此外，Duo的成功也将表明苹果仍然拥有创新的“活力”，正如人们所说。因此，苹果的股价有望继续攀升，今年以来已上涨22%。
If that’s true, then it’s good news for Apple, its investors and the company’s new chief executive officer, John Ternus — who would love a breakout hit to begin his tenure. At a starting price of $1,999, the Duo would boost the iPhone’s average selling price — a key metric watched by Wall Street. Add the signal that Duo’s success would suggest Apple still has the innovative “juice,” as they say, and the stock could build on what’s already been a banner year — up 22% since the start of the year.
但如果情况并非如此，而消费者只是普遍推迟升级，那么苹果试图为其最重要的产品注入新活力的大胆举措将显得落空，这也将表明即便是苹果也无法将潜力巨大的折叠屏产品带给大众。
But if it’s not the case, and consumers are just holding off on an upgrade altogether, Apple’s bold attempt to breathe new life into its most important product will appear to have fallen flat, a sign that even Apple couldn’t bring the potentially lucrative foldable form factor to the masses.
为了了解iPhone的情况，分析师们依赖一个简单但不完美的指标：顾客下单购买设备时的送达等待时间。当新款iPhone Pro开始接受预订时，银行美国和瑞士联合银行的分析师们都观察到，与去年型号相比需求相对低迷。银行美国在当时指出：“全球来看，iPhone 18 Pro的平均发货时间目前为14天（去年为18天），而iPhone 18 Pro Max为18天（去年为25天）。”
For clues on what’s going on with the iPhone, analysts look to a simple but imperfect metric: wait times for delivery when customers try to buy a device. When the new iPhone Pro was available to preorder, analysts at both Bank of America and UBS observed muted demand compared with last year’s models. “Globally, on average, ship time for the iPhone 18 Pro is currently at 14 days (vs. 18 days for iPhone 17 Pro) while iPhone 18 Pro Max stands at 18 days (vs. 25 days last year),” BofA noted at the time.
瑞银集团观察到差异较小但趋势相同：iPhone 18 Pro的需求疲软。其分析师写道：“尽管我们承认Pro和Pro Max的等待时间缩短可能意味着消费者正在推迟购买决定，等待双屏版发布，我们仍认为起始价1999美元可能会限制额外单位的增长。”（换句话说：不要指望是双屏版的需求在阻碍Pro系列的销售。）自那以后几周里，瑞银注意到Pro和Pro Max的需求有所回升——也就是说，交货时间延长了。
UBS saw a smaller difference but the same trend: muted demand for the iPhone 18 Pro. “While we acknowledge the possibility that muted wait times for the Pro and Pro Max could suggest consumers are delaying their purchase decisions for the Duo,” its analysts wrote, “we believe that the $1,999 starting price could limit incremental unit upside.” (In other words: Don’t count on it being Duo demand holding the Pro back.) In the couple of weeks since, UBS has noted an uptick in demand for the Pro and Pro Max — that is, a lengthening of delivery times.
这确实是一个不完美的指标。苹果今年可能比2025年准备了更多的库存。而且，这是苹果首次将高端和基础款产品的发布时间分开——较便宜的非Pro版iPhone明年发布——因此库存管理可能会更加简单。
It is, for sure, an imperfect metric. Apple might have just had more inventory ready to go this year compared with 2025. And this is the first year that Apple has split the launch of its premium and basic tiers into different seasons — the less expensive non-Pro iPhones come out next year — so inventory management might be a little more straightforward.
但也可能是因为苹果在所有旗舰产品上普遍提高100美元的价格，主要是由于内存成本飙升，一些消费者因此被劝退。苹果及其合作的运营商一直试图缓解打击，通过提高旧设备的以旧换新价值和推出新的支付选项，其中最值得注意的是苹果的新租赁计划。但这可能仍然不够。
But it also might be the case that some consumers have been turned off by the $100 price increases across the board for Apple’s flagship products, mainly caused by the ballooning cost of memory. The company and the carriers it works with have been trying to soften the blow by increasing trade-in value of old devices and introducing new payment options, most notably Apple’s new leasing program. It still may not be enough.
如果iPhone业务表现不佳，除非苹果其他业务板块——比如服务业务——能抵消这一负面影响，否则其股价也会随之受挫。倘若iPhone Pro系列销量不尽如人意，那么今年有望起到“缓冲作用”的便是全球各地苹果门店里那股热烈的氛围：消费者们会争相购买新发布的iPhone Duo。不过，苹果需要实现IDC预测的“首年销量达1000万台”这一目标才行。
A poor iPhone cycle is bad for Apple’s stock unless something significant elsewhere in its business — such as its services segment — is able to offset the news. This year’s offset, if iPhone Pro sales require one, could be a frenzy at Apple’s glistening stores across the world as users clamor for the iPhone Duo when it’s released. Apple would need IDC’s estimate of 10 million iPhone Duos sold in the first 12 months to be on the money.
为此，苹果必须克服目前报道中提到的生产难题，这些难题可能会影响初期的产品供应。不过话说回来，一款热门新品出现缺货现象其实也有其积极意义：虽然iPhone Duo的销量仅占苹果今年预计出货的2.5亿部iPhone的一小部分，但这些销量足以强化外界对苹果旗舰产品仍有增长空间的认知。
To reach that, Apple will need to overcome reported manufacturing challenges that could impact initial supply. Then again, a headline-grabbing shortage of a hot new product has its upside. Sales of the Duo will be a fraction of the more than 250 million iPhones Apple is expected to ship this year, but those sales will cement any perception of how Apple’s top product still has room to grow.
上周日，我在布鲁克林市中心的苹果门店待了一个多小时，当时我的iPhone 15 Pro需要维修——和它的主人一样，这部手机虽有些年头，但性能依然不错。我坐在那里时，右侧有一张陈列台，上面摆放着亮着屏幕的iPhone 18 Pro与Pro Max机型，但吸引到的关注十分有限。除了颜色选择更多、摄像头与电池性能略有提升外，这些新机型实在没什么特别之处。不过我听到至少有三个人询问有关iPhone Duo的信息。
As it happened, I spent more than an hour at Apple’s downtown Brooklyn store on Sunday, waiting on a repair to my iPhone 15 Pro which, like its owner, is aging but still sufficiently capable. As I sat, to my right was a table of glowing iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, attracting only limited interest. Other than different colors and incremental improvements to the camera and battery, there’s nothing much to see. Yet I heard at least three people inquire about the iPhone Duo.
“最近问这款手机的人多吗？”我向前来帮忙的工作人员问道。“当然啦，”她笑着回答，“一整天都有人问。”这些顾客究竟是真的打算购买，还是只是出于好奇，将直接影响苹果今年的业务走势。
“Are you getting a lot of that?”I asked the staff member when she came to help me. “Oh yeah,” she laughed. “All day.”Whether those kinds of customers are ready to spend, or are just curious, will set the mood for Apple this year.