巴西总统选举将于10月25日进入决选。此前，前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的儿子弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗赢得第一轮选举，并以数百万票击败左翼总统卢拉·达席尔瓦。卢拉几十年来一直是巴西政坛的常客。他也是全球知名的左翼人物。他一直是金砖国家的领导人，在乌克兰-俄罗斯战争中对莫斯科采取的立场也显得软弱。
Brazil's presidential election is heading to a run-off on October 25. The development followed Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, winning the first round of the election and defeating left-wing President Lula da Silva by several million votes. Lula has been a fixture of Brazilian politics for decades. He is also a well-known figure globally on the left. He has been a leader in BRICS and has also taken a stance that has appeared soft on Moscow in the Ukraine-Russia War.
前总统博尔索纳罗在任时是以色列的支持者，加入了拉丁美洲右倾领导人的潮流，他们往往与以色列关系更近。这意味着巴西的决选可能很重要。这被广泛视为中美洲和南美洲趋势的一部分，更多右倾候选人正在获胜。弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗在一月份接受《耶路撒冷邮报》采访时表示，如果当选，他将在任期的前六个月内将巴西大使馆迁至耶路撒冷。
Former president Bolsonaro was a supporter of Israel when he was in office, joining a trend of right-leaning leaders in Latin America who tend to be closer to Israel. This means that the run-off in Brazil could be important. It is widely seen as part of a trend in Central and South America where more right-leaning candidates are winning. In a January interview with The Jerusalem Post, Flavio Bolsonaro said that if elected, he would move Brazil's embassy to Jerusalem within the first six months of his mandate.
四月，阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱和总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡宣布启动《艾萨克协议》。这说明了以色列和阿根廷之间不断发展的伙伴关系。当时，外交部指出，“《以撒协议》构成了一个新的战略框架，旨在加强阿根廷、以色列与西半球志同道合的伙伴、以撒的后裔和犹太教-基督教传统国家之间的合作，捍卫自由和民主，打击恐怖主义、反犹太主义、和毒品贩运。
In April, Argentinian President Javier Milei and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the launch of the Isaac Accords. This illustrated the growing partnership between Israel and Argentina. At the time, the Foreign Ministry noted that “the Isaac Accords constitute a new strategic framework aimed at strengthening cooperation between Argentina, Israel and like-minded partners in the Western Hemisphere, the descendants of Isaac and nations of the Judeo-Christian tradition, in defense of freedom and democracy, and in the fight against terrorism, antisemitism, and drug trafficking. Participating countries will pursue concrete actions based on these principles.”
参与国将根据这些原则采取具体行动。今年9月，内塔尼亚胡在联合国大会期间再次与米莱会面，此时《以撒协议》正备受瞩目。内塔尼亚胡与米莱共同启动《以撒协议》，为以色列与拉丁美洲国家的关系奠定了基础。以色列总理办公室指出：“两位领导人探讨了两国间的持续合作，以及以色列在拉丁美洲所迎来的积极战略转变；这一转变使得《以撒协议》得以进一步实施，从而深化以色列与拉美各国在安全与经济领域的合作。”
When Netanyahu again met Milei in September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, the Isaac Accords were in the spotlight. Netanyahu, Milei launching Isaac Accords sets foundation for Israel-LATAM relationsThe two leaders discussed continued cooperation between their countries and the positive strategic shift for Israel taking place in Latin America, which makes possible the expansion of the "Isaac Accords" to deepen security and economic cooperation between Israel and the countries of Latin America,” the Prime Minister's Office noted. These accords have backing or potential backing in Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia, Honduras, Chile, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Paraguay, Uruguay, Bolivia, and Panama, the Post noted in June. The “rightward shift” in Latin American politics is getting a lot of attention now.
今年6月，《华盛顿邮报》报道称，巴西、阿根廷、委内瑞拉、厄瓜多尔、哥伦比亚、洪都拉斯、智利、哥斯达黎加、危地马拉、巴拉圭、乌拉圭、玻利维亚及巴拿马均已表态支持或有可能支持这些协议。当前，拉丁美洲政治领域的“右倾化”趋势正引发广泛关注。一些美国评论人士认为，这一趋势部分源于特朗普政府的影响以及美国国际开发署在该地区的撤出；他们的论点是，美国国际开发署此前曾为各类左倾项目提供资金。
Some commentators in the US believe it is partly due to the influence of the Trump administration and the end of USAID in the region. The argument is that USAID had funded left-leaning programs. The Trump administration has made it clear that it supports certain leaders, such as Argentina's president.
特朗普政府已明确表示支持包括阿根廷总统在内的部分领导人；美国还公开表态支持在哥伦比亚大选中险胜的阿贝拉多·德·拉·埃斯普列拉。《卫报》甚至声称，巴西大选是美国试图“掌控”拉丁美洲的一部分举措；有人将这一战略称为“唐罗主义”，即美国版“门罗主义”的体现。2026年1月对委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗实施的逮捕行动亦属此战略的一部分。《新阿拉伯报》则认为，这种政治格局的变化有利于以色列与该地区国家关系的深化。
The US also made it clear it supported Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia, who won a narrow election there. The Guardian even claimed that the Brazil election is part of the US search for “control” of Latin America. Some call this the "Donroe doctrine," a new American version of the Monroe Doctrine. Arresting Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 raid was part of this.
声明指出，“尼加拉瓜、哥伦比亚、墨西哥、智利、玻利维亚、古巴和伯利兹都介入支持南非在国际法院起诉以色列的案件，而哥伦比亚更进一步，全面禁止向以色列出口煤炭，并终止其双边自由贸易协定。”现在，它认为玻利维亚和洪都拉斯已经改变了策略，与以色列更加亲近。智利和洪都拉斯已从以色列召回大使。
The New Arab sees the changing political landscape as helping Israel ties. It noted, “Nicaragua, Colombia, Mexico, Chile, Bolivia, Cuba and Belize all intervened in support of South Africa's case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), while Colombia went one step further, placing a total ban on coal exports to Israel and terminating its bilateral free trade agreement.”Now it argues that Bolivia and Honduras have shifted tack and become closer to Israel.
八月新阿拉伯文章指出，“哥伦比亚新总统阿韦拉多·德拉埃斯普里耶拉已准备好通过加强安全协调、恢复煤炭出口和退出海牙集团来恢复与以色列的关系。本周，新右翼政府还承认了以色列对1967年从叙利亚夺取的被占领戈兰高地的主权主张，成为继2019年特朗普政府之后第二个这样做的国家。”特朗普执政后，以色列和委内瑞拉关系有所改善。
Chile and Honduras have recalled their ambassadors from Israel. The August New Arab article notes “the new president of Colombia, Abelardo de la Espriella, is ready to renew ties with Israel by ramping up security coordination, resuming coal exports, and withdrawing from The Hague Group. This week, the new right-wing government also recognized Israel's claim to the occupied Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in 1967, becoming only the second country to do so after the Trump administration in 2019.”
驱逐马杜罗委内瑞拉与以色列的关系也在改善。以色列在地震后派出了一支小组提供帮助。领事服务在17年后更新。路透社8月指出：“现在由临时总统德尔西·罗德里格斯领导的委内瑞拉政府表示，以色列人道主义代表团在6月份发生致命地震后访问了该国，两国高级官员进行了讨论，最终达成了恢复领事服务的协议。”
Israel, Venezuela ties improving after Trump admin. ousts MaduroVenezuela-Israel ties are also improving. Israel sent a team to help after an earthquake. Consular services have been renewed after 17 years. “Venezuela's government, now led by Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, said an Israeli humanitarian delegation visited the country afterdeadly earthquakes in June and discussions took placeamong senior officials from both nations, leading to the deal to resume consular services,” Reuters noted in August.
哥伦比亚已采取行动改善与耶路撒冷的关系。7月，哥伦比亚外交部长奥马尔·博拉·埃斯科瓦尔会见了以色列外交部长吉迪恩·萨尔。萨尔于八月开始访问南美洲，前往厄瓜多尔和哥伦比亚。中东国家正在关注以色列与拉丁美洲关系的发展。例如，土耳其阿纳多卢机构密切关注哪些国家将大使馆迁至耶路撒冷。
Colombia has moved to improve ties with Jerusalem. In July, Colombia's Foreign Minister Omar Bola Escobar met Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar. Sa'ar began visiting South America in August, going to Ecuador and Colombia. Middle Eastern countries are watching the developing Israel-Latin America ties. For instance, Turkey's Anadolu Agency has closely watched which countries are moving embassies to Jerusalem.
它在四月份的一篇文章中指出，阿根廷与洪都拉斯、危地马拉和巴拉圭一起采取了这一行动。中美洲和南美洲政治版图的变化也对以色列的国防关系以及这些国家获取新的国防技术解决方案产生了影响。拉丁美洲历史上并不是以色列总体国防支出的主要市场。2025年，拉丁美洲仅占国防销售额的2%。这大约是3.8亿美元。
It noted in an April article that Argentina had joined Honduras, Guatemala, and Paraguay in the move. The changing political map of Central and South America also has ramifications for Israel's defense ties and these countries acquiring new defense technology solutions. Latin America has not historically been a major market for Israel in terms of overall defense spending. Latin America only made up two percent of defense sales in 2025. That is around $380 million.
拉丁美洲国家通常在国防上花费不多。巴西是该地区支出最多的国家，但全球仍排名第21位。这使得其支出低于西班牙、澳大利亚、日本、土耳其和意大利等国。巴西的支出占GDP的百分比约为1%。巴西是拥有国防工业基础的国家之一。墨西哥、哥伦比亚、智利和阿根廷跻身拉丁美洲前五名支出国之列。哥伦比亚、乌拉圭、厄瓜多尔、洪都拉斯和智利的国防支出占GDP的比例在1.3%至3.3%之间。
Countries in Latin America generally do not spend much on defense. Brazil, the largest spender in the region, is still ranked 21st globally. This makes its spending smaller than Spain, Australia, Japan, Turkey, and Italy, for instance. As a percent of GDP, Brazil spends around one percent. Brazil is one country that has a defense industrial base. Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and Argentina round out the top five Latin American spenders. As a percentage of GDP, Colombia, Uruguay, Ecuador, Honduras, and Chile spend between 1.3 and 3.3 percent on defense.
国防部长以色列·卡茨“与洪都拉斯国防部长恩里克·罗德里格斯·伯查德签署了一份谅解备忘录（MOU），以深化以色列国和洪都拉斯共和国之间的国防合作，”国防部表示。国防部指出：“与洪都拉斯的谅解备忘录加入了以色列国防部过去一年与世界各地的合作伙伴推进的一系列国防合作协议，这是国防部扩大以色列国防伙伴关系范围、加强与友好国家的战略关系、深化以色列国防工业与国际市场之间合作的战略的一部分。”
In August, Defense Minister Israel Katz "signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Honduras' Defense Minister, Enrique Rodríguez Burchard, to deepen defense cooperation between the State of Israel and the Republic of Honduras," the ministry said." The MOU with Honduras joins a series of defense cooperation agreements advanced by the IMOD over the past year with partners around the world, as part of the Ministry's strategy to expand Israel's circle of defense partnerships, strengthen strategic ties with friendly nations, and deepen cooperation between Israel's defense industries and international markets,” the ministry noted.
这表明以色列希望在该地区进行更多国防销售。然而，最大的问题是，新的政治转变是否会导致外交和国防方面或整个贸易方面的重大变化。
This suggests Israel wants more defense sales in the region. However, the big question is whether the new political shifts will lead to major changes on the diplomatic and defense fronts, or in trade in general.
拉丁美洲的总体情况是，尽管进行了选举和变革，但许多转变都是狭隘的。除了尼加拉瓜、委内瑞拉和古巴之外，该大陆广泛实行民主。许多国家都有老牌政党，例如乌拉圭和巴拉圭的科罗拉多党。阿根廷庇隆党成立于1946年。左派可能会在未来十年内在一些国家重新掌权，这是有道理的。就规模而言，巴西的选举是一场巨大的选举。
The overall story in Latin America is that even though there have been elections and changes, many of the shifts have been narrow. The continent is broadly democratic with the exception of Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba. Many countries have old political parties such as the Colorado party in Uruguay and Paraguay. The Peronist party in Argentina was founded in 1946. It's plausible that the left may return to power in some countries over the next decade. Brazil's election is a juggernaut in terms of size.
它拥有约1.1亿选民，基本上比南美洲所有其他国家的选民总和还要多。总体而言，南美洲和中美洲最近的选举中选票约为3亿张，如果深入研究数据，就会发现该大陆实际上左翼和右翼之间几乎平均分配，左翼在墨西哥等国家仍然占据优势。委内瑞拉未来是否会举行自由公正的选举还有待观察。
With some 110 million voters, it basically has more voters than all the other countries in South America combined. Overall, votes in recent elections in South and Central America are around 300 million, and if one looks deeply at the data, the continent is actually divided almost equally between left and right, with the left still having the advantage in countries such as Mexico. It also remains to be seen if Venezuela will have free and fair elections in the future.