奥、贝阿特丽斯·雷伊斯巴西总统选举的首轮投票结果出人意料，这引发了人们对贸易政策可能发生调整的预期。如果弗拉维奥·博索纳罗最终胜选，新政府很可能会深化与华盛顿的联系，同时继续推进巴西市场多元化的战略。
A surprising first round in Brazil’s presidential election is raising the prospect of a recalibration in trade policy, with a possible Flávio Bolsonaro government likely to deepen ties with Washington while preserving much of the country’s push to diversify markets.
在周日举行的投票中，右翼候选人博索纳罗表现强劲，对阵左翼总统卢拉。若他最终胜出，巴西或将采取更加以市场为导向的政策，并与美国总统特朗普建立更紧密的关系，这有望推动牛肉、乙醇、钢铁及关键矿产等领域的出口增长。
Right-wing candidate Bolsonaro produced a strong showing against leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Sunday’s vote. An eventual victory could bring a more market-oriented approach and closer connection with US President Donald Trump, potentially opening the door to further gains in areas including beef, ethanol, steel and critical minerals.
不过，新政府也未必会彻底改变这个大宗商品出口大国的政策方向。事实上，巴西一直在努力增进与美国的贸易往来，同时也在积极拓展其他地区的商业关系——鉴于中国这一最大贸易伙伴正着手保护本国部分产业，此类举措显得愈发紧迫。
But a new administration wouldn’t necessarily mean a wholesale change in direction for the commodities powerhouse. Brazil has already worked to improve trade with the US while also broadening its commercial relationships elsewhere — an effort that has gained urgency as China, its biggest trading partner, moves to protect some domestic industries.
在卢拉执政期间，备受期待的南方共同市场与欧盟贸易协定终于得以达成；目前巴西还在与加拿大、日本及阿联酋等国进行谈判。
Under Lula, a long-awaited Mercosur-European Union trade deal crossed the finish line, while negotiations with countries including Canada, Japan and the United Arab Emirates are ongoing.
博索纳罗同样承诺要为巴西产品开拓更多市场，并表现出加强与美国联系的意愿。竞选期间他曾表示愿意与美国签署贸易协定，还以阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱为例加以说明。
Bolsonaro has similarly vowed to open more markets for Brazilian products, while signaling greater willingness to deepen connections with Washington. During the campaign, he said he would be open to trade agreements with the US, pointing to Javier Milei’s Argentina as an example.
“弗拉维奥的竞选纲领强调加强与美国的联系、对中国采取务实态度，并在国际贸易领域坚持市场化导向，”花旗集团分析师加布里埃尔·巴拉领衔的团队在首轮选举结束后发布的报告中写道。
“Flávio’s campaign has emphasized closer ties with the US, a pragmatic approach toward China and a market-oriented stance on international trade,” analysts at Citigroup led by Gabriel Barra wrote in a note following the first round of elections.
花旗指出，这种政策取向可能意味着巴西会减少对本国产业的保护措施；其中本土钢铁行业尤其容易受到冲击。
Such an approach could mean limits to measures for protecting Brazil’s domestic industry from imports, Citi said, highlighting the local steel industry as particularly exposed.
巴西本土钢铁企业一直在敦促政府重新实施2018年达成的协议。该协议允许巴西在规定的配额范围内免税向美国出口钢铁。在华盛顿取消这一协议并征收50%的关税之前，巴西是美国最大的钢板供应国。
Local steelmakers have been pressing the government to revive a 2018 agreement that allowed the country to ship steel to the US tariff-free within set quotas. Brazil was the biggest supplier of steel slabs to the US before Washington scrapped the arrangement and imposed a 50% tariff.
乙醇产业则构成了另一项考验。卢拉恢复了前任总统博索纳罗于2022年暂时取消的对美国乙醇的关税，这使得市场准入问题成为巴西与特朗普政府之间的摩擦点，也引发了美国对巴西贸易惯例的调查。
Ethanol offers another test. Lula restored tariffs on US ethanol that predecessor Jair Bolsonaro temporarily eliminated in 2022, turning market access into a source of friction with Trump and part of a US investigation into Brazilian trade practices.
巴西的乙醇生产商指出，若博索纳罗政府决定取消相关关税，华盛顿方面也应作出让步，比如允许巴西糖更多地进入美国市场。
Brazilian ethanol producers say any move by a Bolsonaro government to remove the tariff should come with concessions from Washington, including greater access for Brazilian sugar.
“要互惠互利，而非卑躬屈膝，”乙醇经纪公司Bioagencia的负责人塔尔西洛·罗德里格斯说道。
“Reciprocity, not subservience,” said Tarcilo Rodrigues, director of ethanol brokerage Bioagencia.
卢拉一直抵制华盛顿推动两国在关键矿产领域开展更广泛合作的要求，而博索纳罗则极力宣传巴西可帮助美国减少对中国的依赖。他在今年3月表示：“巴西是美国摆脱对中国关键矿产、尤其是稀土元素依赖的解决方案。”
Lula has resisted Washington’s push for a broader partnership on critical minerals, while Bolsonaro has pitched Brazil as an answer to US efforts to reduce its dependence on China. “Brazil is America’s solution for breaking dependence on China for critical minerals, especially rare earth elements,” he said in March.
巴西拥有全球最大的铌矿储量，稀土储量也仅次于中国位居世界第二，但目前其稀土产量仅占全球总产量的不到1%。两位总统候选人均希望将更多加工环节及产业链留在国内，不过博索纳罗更强调吸引外资与先进技术。
Brazil has the world’s largest niobium reserves and the second-largest rare-earth reserves after China, yet produces less than 1% of global rare-earth supply. Both candidates want more of the processing and value chain to remain at home, though Bolsonaro has put greater emphasis on attracting foreign capital and technology.
其竞选团队称，只要其他国家愿意“不带偏见、不带有意识形态色彩”地开展合作，巴西都欢迎与之建立伙伴关系，并承诺会加快环境许可审批流程。
His campaign says partnerships would be open to countries willing to cooperate “without prejudice or ideological bias” and has promised faster environmental licensing.
目前，由于美国指控巴西存在不公平贸易行为，巴西的一系列商品正面临25%的关税。
Brazil is currently being targeted with 25% tariffs on a series of goods following US allegations of unfair trade practices.
虽然咖啡、橙汁和牛肉等部分主要出口产品可豁免该关税，但巴西仍未能获得像阿根廷等其他出口国所享有的针对本国牛肉的进口配额。针对碎牛肉的临时关税减免措施也将在今年年底到期。
While some key export products like coffee, orange juice and beef are exempt from that particular duty, Brazil still lacks a country-specific beef import quota enjoyed by other exporters such as Argentina. A temporary tariff relief for ground beef is set to expire before the end of year.
巴西是全球最大的牛肉出口国，其出口量中约有一半销往中国。在中方采取限制进口措施以保护国内生产商后，美国便成为了重要的替代供应国。
Brazil is the world’s largest beef exporter, and roughly half of its shipments go to China. After the country moved to limit imports to protect domestic producers, the US has emerged as a key alternative.