圣保罗/巴西利亚，10月9日——在巴西总统选举的决胜轮中，美巴关系的两种截然不同的愿景正面临关键抉择。但专家认为，参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗和现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦各自的竞选策略也都伴随着风险。
SAO PAULO/BRASILIA, Oct 9 - Two starkly different visions for US-Brazil relations hang in the balance in Brazil’s presidential runoff, but the strategies of both Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva come with their own risks, experts said.
在首轮投票中，博索纳罗获得47%的选票，而卢拉获得45%，这使得博索纳罗在10月25日的决胜轮中占据有利势头。在竞选过程中，两位候选人与华盛顿的关系都受到了密切关注。
Bolsonaro heads toward the October 25 runoff with momentum after he secured 47% of the first-round vote to Lula’s 45%, following a campaign where both candidates’ relationships with Washington drew scrutiny.
此次选举的利害关系十分重大。巴西下一任总统将需要在最大和第二大贸易伙伴——中国与美国——之间的紧张关系中寻求平衡，同时制定有关矿产资源开发、工业化和区域合作的战略。
The stakes are high. Brazil’s next president will have to navigate tensions between its first- and second-largest trading partners — China and the US — while shaping strategies on mineral development, industrialization, and regional cooperation.
上个月，巴西与美国成立了一个工作组，以推动关税谈判和更广泛的双边贸易框架。随着华盛顿寻求减少对中国的矿物依赖，巴西关键矿产和稀土资源的获取问题已成为争议焦点。
Brazil and the US established a working group last month to drive negotiations over tariffs and a broader bilateral trade framework, with US access to Brazil's critical minerals and rare earths emerging as a key point of contention as Washington looks to reduce its dependence on China for those minerals.
巴西前驻美大使鲁本斯·巴尔博萨表示：“如果挑战者获胜，美国人可能不愿向卢拉做出任何让步，而更倾向于等待并与博索纳罗进行谈判。”
If the challenger wins, "the Americans may prove reluctant to yield anything to Lula, preferring to wait and negotiate with Bolsonaro," said Rubens Barbosa, a former Brazilian ambassador to the US.
卢拉对美国的策略则聚焦于捍卫巴西主权。此前，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普曾向巴西施压，要求撤销对博索纳罗父亲、前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗的指控。后者目前正因策划政变而服刑27年。
Lula's strategy toward the US has focused on defending Brazil's sovereignty after US President Donald Trump heaped pressure on Brazil to drop charges against Bolsonaro's father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is now serving a 27-year sentence for trying to plot a coup.
卢拉与华盛顿的互动带有民族主义色彩，同时他更重视多边主义以及与全球南方国家（包括巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非等）的紧密合作。
A nationalist tone has framed Lula's engagement with Washington, while he prioritizes multilateralism and closer ties with the Global South, including the BRICS bloc, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, among other countries.
尽管这一策略提升了他在国内的受欢迎程度，但专家认为，这位左翼总统在与华盛顿的谈判中进展并不顺利。
Though the approach helped his popularity at home, the leftist has enjoyed checkered progress in negotiations with Washington, experts told Reuters.
如果卢拉成功赢得连任，华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所的高级研究员莫妮卡·德·博勒表示，一个由右翼政党主导的新国会可能会迫使“实力削弱的卢拉”改变路线。
If Lula manages to win reelection, an incoming Congress dominated by right-wing parties could push a "weaker Lula" to change tack, said Monica de Bolle, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
“我认为卢拉将面临巨大压力，不得不在自然资源及其他问题上向美国的部分要求让步，”德·博勒说。
"I believe there would be a lot of pressure on Lula to give in to some US demands regarding natural resources, as well as other issues," said de Bolle.
博索纳罗的赌注：巴西前外交官、曾在美国和欧洲任职的鲁本斯·里库佩罗表示，“卢拉拥有成熟稳定的外交政策”，而博索纳罗的外交政策则是一张“空白支票”。这位参议员与特朗普政府关系友好，其兄爱德华多·博索纳罗也为此提供了助力。爱德华多曾是巴西国会议员，自去年初起一直居住在美国，并因邀请美国干预其父2025年的法律程序而被巴西最高法院定罪。
BOLSONARO’S GAMBLES While "Lula has a well-established foreign policy," said Rubens Ricupero, a former Brazilian diplomat who served in the US and Europe, Bolsonaro's is a "blank slate." The senator has a friendly relationship with the Trump administration, aided by his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro, a former Brazilian congressman who has resided in the US since early last year and was convicted by Brazil's Supreme Court for inviting US intervention in their father's legal proceedings in 2025.
尽管两兄弟均未证实相关传闻，但一位接近竞选团队的人士告诉路透社，如果这位参议员成为巴西下一任总统，两人一直在讨论爱德华多可能扮演的国际角色。
While neither brother has confirmed the rumors, a person close to the campaign told Reuters that the two have been discussing potential international roles for the younger sibling if the senator becomes Brazil's next president.
德·博勒表示，如果博索纳罗当选总统，“巴西的外交政策将比以往任何时候都更加与美国保持一致”。
If Bolsonaro is elected president "there would be a foreign policy much more aligned with the United States than Brazil traditionally has had,” said de Bolle.
专家称，该家族与特朗普政府的密切关系或许能为巴西赢得与华盛顿更有利的谈判环境，但博索纳罗也可能面临在战略矿产等关键问题上做出让步的风险。
The family's close ties to the Trump administration could secure a more favorable negotiating environment with Washington, though Bolsonaro risks making concessions on key issues like strategic minerals, experts said.
巴西机构与政府关系协会主席让·卡斯特罗表示：“达成良好协议的道路似乎已经清晰，”但博索纳罗将不得不面对支持者对巴西独立于美国程度的质疑，以及“维持独立叙事所带来的更大压力”。
"The path seems clear for good agreements," but Bolsonaro would face questions from supporters about Brazil's autonomy from the US and "more pressure to maintain an independent narrative," said Jean Castro, president of the Brazilian Association of Institutional and Governmental Relations.
自竞选活动启动以来，博索纳罗不仅积极拉拢特朗普，还寻求与阿根廷的哈维尔·米莱和哥伦比亚的阿贝拉多·德·拉·埃斯普里耶拉等海外右翼盟友建立联系。
Since launching his campaign, Bolsonaro has courted Trump, as well as other right-wing allies abroad like Argentina’s Javier Milei and Colombia’s Abelardo de la Espriella.
博索纳罗和特朗普已经就打击有组织犯罪的策略达成一致。博索纳罗于5月访问华盛顿时，敦促特朗普将巴西主要犯罪组织指定为外国恐怖组织。华盛顿接受了这一提议，但卢拉则明确将其斥为干涉行为。卢拉主张采取国家层面的方法，通过国际合作来解决安全问题。
Bolsonaro and Trump have already aligned on strategy for combating organized crime. Visiting Washington in May, he urged Trump to designate major Brazilian criminal factions as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, a proposal Washington accepted but which Lula flatly rejected as intervention. Lula instead advocated for a national approach to address security with international cooperation.
民意调查显示，卢拉因在贸易和安全问题上与特朗普频繁发生分歧而人气有所上升；而另一些调查则表明，巴西人认为博索纳罗对特朗普7月征收的关税负有更多责任。
Public opinion polls have shown Lula’s popularity got a bump from his frequent disagreements with Trump on trade and security, while other surveys showed Brazilians held Bolsonaro more responsible for tariffs imposed by Trump in July.
“他不能采取一种可能被误解为卑躬屈膝的立场，”卡斯特罗说道。
"He cannot adopt a stance that could be mistaken for subservience," said Castro.