巴西总统候选人弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在本月晚些时候的决选前夕获得了多个政党的正式支持，这一迹象表明他的竞选势头正日益强劲，同时也让人们得以提前窥见他若胜选后可能组建的执政联盟的雏形。
Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro has secured the new backing of multiple parties ahead of an election runoff later this month, suggesting his campaign is building momentum and offering an early glimpse of what a governing coalition could look like if he wins.
作为前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗的长子，这位右翼议员在首轮投票中表现超出预期，以微弱优势领先现任总统。根据安排，他将于10月25日与左翼总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦展开决选。
The right-wing lawmaker, the eldest son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, will face leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the runoff on October 25, after he exceeded expectations in the first-round vote with a slight lead over the incumbent.
自那以后，多个中右翼及右翼政党纷纷表态支持博索纳罗，这意味着如果他成功当选总统，其执政联盟有望在国会两院均占据绝对多数席位。巴西国会派系林立，无论哪位总统当选，都必须组建国会联盟才能顺利推行各项立法议程。
Endorsements have since rolled in from a number of center-right and right-wing parties, putting Bolsonaro's coalition on track to hold comfortable majorities in both chambers of Congress should he win the presidency. Brazil's Congress is highly fragmented and whoever wins the presidency needs to assemble a congressional coalition in order to advance their legislative agenda.
获得国会支持将显著提升博索纳罗推行自由市场经济改革的可能性——这些改革正是投资者们迫切期待的。此外，这也有助于博索纳罗政府重新调整巴西的司法体系，比如任命新的最高法院大法官，甚至对现任大法官启动弹劾程序。
Support in Congress would increase the chances that Bolsonaro will be able to push through the free-market economic reforms investors are clamoring for. It could also help a potential Bolsonaro government reshape Brazilian institutions like the Supreme Court by confirming new justices and even impeaching sitting ones.
“我对这些正式支持深感欣慰。正是通过这样的方式，我们才能重建巴西，”上周，博索纳罗在与相关议员及盟友政党成员共同出席的新闻发布会上说道。
"I am very pleased with this formal support. This is how we are going to rebuild Brazil," Bolsonaro said last week during a press conference with lawmakers and members from allied parties.
此次表态支持他的政党包括巴西进步党、巴西联盟党、共和党以及可能党——这些政党在首轮竞选期间均保持中立立场。其中部分政党的议员此前曾在卢拉政府中担任要职，包括内阁成员。
The new backers include PP, Uniao Brasil, Republicanos and Podemos, parties that had remained neutral during the first-round campaign. Lawmakers from some of those parties used to hold influential positions in Lula's administration, including cabinet posts.
此外，博索纳罗还获得了三位在首轮投票中落败的总统候选人的支持：前米纳斯吉拉斯州州长罗梅乌·泽马、前戈亚斯州州长罗纳尔多·卡伊阿多，以及作家兼精神科医生奥古斯托·库里。泽马所属的“新党”也宣布支持博索纳罗。
Bolsonaro also secured the support of three presidential contenders defeated in the first round: former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema, former Goias Governor Ronaldo Caiado and author-psychiatrist Augusto Cury. Zema's Novo party also endorsed Bolsonaro.
这些支持标志着这位参议员处境的重大转机。此前，在首轮竞选进入最后阶段时，由于民调始终显示他落后于卢拉，他并未获得主要政党的正式支持。
The endorsements mark a significant turnaround for the senator, who entered the final stretch of the first-round campaign without formal support from major parties as opinion polls consistently showed him trailing Lula.
如果博索纳罗胜选，他很可能需要向盟友政党作出让步——这在巴西政坛十分常见。2023年卢拉胜选后，其内阁职位中近一半都分配给了盟友政党。
If Bolsonaro wins, he would likely need to make concessions to allied parties, as is common in Brasilia and as Lula did in 2023, when nearly half his cabinet posts went to allies.
本月选举后，巴西国会的政治倾向将趋于右翼，这或许能降低博索纳罗达成政治妥协的成本。
A rightward shift in Congress after this month’s elections could make those deals less costly.
“只要他信守竞选承诺，就能获得压倒性的支持，”政治分析人士安东尼奥·弗拉维奥·泰斯塔说道。
"If he keeps his campaign promises, his support is likely to be overwhelming," political analyst Antonio Flavio Testa said.
综合来看，博索纳罗领导的自由党及其盟友政党有望掌控众议院280多个席位以及参议院多达50个席位，足以在两院形成绝对多数优势。
Combined, Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) and allied parties could control over 280 seats in the lower house and up to 50 seats in the Senate, enough for comfortable majorities in both chambers.
上周的一场活动中，博索纳罗着重强调了这种潜在的立法优势。他表示，有了国会的支持，他的政府就能“修改宪法、恢复国家的民主秩序”。这一言论遭到卢拉支持者的批评，他们认为这反映出博索纳罗对巴西民主制度缺乏尊重。
Bolsonaro highlighted the potential legislative strength during an event last week, saying congressional support would allow his government to "amend the Constitution and restore democracy to this country," a remark criticized by Lula's supporters, who argued it showed a lack of respect for Brazil's democratic institutions.
事后博索纳罗澄清称，自己指的是那些需要广泛国会支持才能通过的宪法修正案，并强调超出此范围的解读纯属臆测。
The candidate later said that he was referring to the passage of constitutional amendments, which demand broad congressional support, adding that interpretations beyond that were speculative.
对于博索纳罗之子承诺为父亲争取特赦一事而言，强大的国会基础至关重要。博索纳罗父亲因在2022年大选失利后策划政变而被判27年监禁。
A strong congressional base could be key to the younger Bolsonaro’s pledge to grant amnesty to his father, who is serving 27 years for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election.
泰斯塔指出，这一政治联盟有望维持至2028年，届时各政党将为应对地方选举重新评估联盟关系。
Testa said the coalition could hold through 2028, when parties are expected to reassess alliances ahead of municipal elections.
不过，任何政府内部的动荡都可能动摇这一联盟。此前，由于博索纳罗政府应对新冠疫情的方式引发公众强烈质疑，年长的博索纳罗多次调整内阁成员以维系盟友政党的支持。
But any government turmoil could put it under strain. The elder Bolsonaro shuffled his cabinet several times to shore up support from allied parties as his government came under growing public scrutiny over its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
与此同时，在第二轮投票前夕，卢拉一直难以获得新的支持。实际上，在第一轮投票前他就已经赢得了大多数中左翼及左翼政党的支持。
Lula, meanwhile, has struggled to attract new endorsements ahead of the runoff, having already consolidated support from most center-left and left-wing parties before the first round.
据接近其竞选团队的人士透露，经历了一场艰难的第一轮投票后，卢拉正急于全面调整竞选宣传策略，以期吸引数百万未曾投票的巴西民众。
After a bruising first round, Lula is rushing to overhaul his campaign communications to engage millions of Brazilians who did not vote, according to people close to the campaign.