参议员汤姆·蒂利斯（共和党，北卡罗来纳州）周一表示，共和党在2026年中期选举中“几乎不可能在统计学上”保住众议院的控制权。他在MS NOW的《The Beat》节目中接受主持人阿里·梅尔伯的提问，谈及特朗普总统引发的共和党内部分歧时说道：“我支持总统，是因为他是党的领袖，而不是因为他叫唐纳德·J·特朗普，而是因为他是我们党的代表人物。我希望我的党能以最佳状态迎接选举。我相信，尽管我们这一季会遭受一些打击，但最终会恢复过来。”
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Monday it is “almost statistically impossible” for the Republican Party to retain control of the House in the 2026 midterm elections. Appearing on MS NOW’s “The Beat,” host Ari Melber asked the senator about divisions within the GOP driven by President Trump. “I'm supporting the president because he's the head of the party, not because he's Donald J. Trump, but because he is the face of our party,” Tillis said. “And I want my party to be in the best position for elections. And we're going to, we're going to take a little bit of a hit this season and recover from it, I believe.”
蒂利斯本人并未参选连任，他补充道：“我认为，目前共和党几乎不可能在统计学上赢得众议院。”他接着表示，虽然相信共和党会保住参议院的控制权，但“差距会非常接近，不过我仍然认为我们能最终胜出。”他还说：“因为我们拥有出色的候选人，他们在缅因州、俄亥俄州和阿肯色州。他们只需全力以赴，而我们也必须支持他们。”
Tillis, who is not running for reelection, added, “I think the House is almost statistically impossible to win at this point.”He continued that he believed Republicans would retain control of the Senate, but “it will be a tight margin, but I still think we pull it out.”“Because we've got great candidates in Maine, Ohio, Arkansas. They've just got to run hard and we've got to support them,” he said.
蒂利斯的言论发表之际，共和党候选人正面临复杂的中期选举环境：特朗普的支持率低迷、伊朗战争引发不满、与加拿大的关税冲突，以及持续困扰民众的生活成本问题。根据民意调查的平均数据，参议院的归属尚不确定。民主党需要赢得至少四个席位才能重新掌控参议院；根据《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的近期民调，缅因州、俄亥俄州、堪萨斯州、艾奥瓦州、得克萨斯州和阿拉斯加州的选情依然胶着。
Tillis’s remarks come as GOP candidates are grappling with a midterm environment that includes Trump’s low approval ratings, an unpopular war in Iran, a tariff war with Canada and inflation where cost of living remains a concern. The Senate is considered a toss-up by polling averages. The Democratic Party needs to win at least four seats to regain control of the upper chamber; races in Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa, Texas and Alaska remain competitive, according to recent polling from The New York Times/Siena.
民调显示，民主党在得克萨斯州参议院选区领先6个百分点，在阿拉斯加领先7个百分点，在俄亥俄领先3个百分点。该党候选人在艾奥瓦州落后1个百分点，在堪萨斯州则与对手打平。俄亥俄州、艾奥瓦州和堪萨斯州的民调结果均在误差范围内——俄亥俄州的误差为4.5个百分点，艾奥瓦州和堪萨斯州均为4.6个百分点。
It found Democrats leading by 6 points in the Texas Senate race, 7 points in Alaska and 3 points in Ohio. The party's candidates are down 1 point in Iowa and tied in Kansas. The surveys in Ohio, Iowa and Kansas fall within the margin of error — 4.5 points in Ohio, and 4.6 points in both Iowa and Kansas.
根据Decision Desk HQ（DDHQ）的预测，Tillis留下的参议员席位很可能会由民主党参议员候选人、该州前州长Roy Cooper获得，他赢得该席位并实现党派翻盘的概率为84%。DDHQ还预测，民主党有76%的概率在众议院实现翻盘，以及56%的概率夺回参议院多数席位。
Tillis’s open seat will likely go to Democratic Senate candidate Roy Cooper, the state's former governor, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), which gives him an 84 percent probability of flipping the seat. DDHQ also forecasts that Democrats have a 76 percent probability of flipping the House and a 56 percent chance of taking back the Senate.