10月6日：受盈利预期大幅上调的推动，美国软件股正创下2026年以来的新高。多位分析师指出，这一趋势表明市场此前对人工智能可能颠覆该行业的担忧其实有些过度了。
Oct 6 : US software stocks are touching fresh 2026 highs, supported by a sharp rise in earnings expectations, which according to several analysts indicate that fears over AI-led disruption in the sector were largely overstated.
周二，标普500指数中的软件与服务板块上涨1.3%，触及自2025年11月以来的最高水平。该板块在7月至9月这一季度实现了自2020年第二季度以来的最大季度涨幅。
The S&P 500 software and services index rose 1.3 per cent on Tuesday to its highest levels since November 2025, after posting its biggest quarterly jump in July-September since the second quarter of 2020.
Salesforce、ServiceNow以及埃森哲等软件企业发布的强劲业绩，加上它们与多家人工智能实验室建立的合作伙伴关系，共同推动了自6月下旬以来该行业的持续复苏。
Strong earnings from software companies such as Salesforce, ServiceNow and Accenture, along with partnerships with AI labs, helped fuel a recovery in the sector that had been underway since late June.
网络安全类股票表现尤为亮眼：在人工智能时代众多企业纷纷加大网络安全投入的背景下，CrowdStrike、Fortinet以及Palo Alto Networks等公司的股价今年均实现了三位数百分比的增长。
Cybersecurity stocks have stood out, with Crowdstrike, Fortinet and Palo Alto Networks notching triple digit percentage gains this year as companies spend heavily on cybersecurity in the age of AI.
LPL Financial的首席跨资产策略师亚当·特恩奎斯特表示：“对许多软件企业而言，人工智能更多起到助力作用，而非破坏性因素。”
"AI has been more of an enabler for a lot of these software companies, more than a disruptor," said Adam Turnquist, chief cross-asset strategist at LPL Financial.
“目前我们正看到一种趋势转变：软件行业重新掌握了行业主导权。我们认为，软件板块有望跑赢半导体行业。”今年该软件指数已累计上涨5%；而包含多家美国芯片制造商的费城半导体指数虽在2026年大幅上涨了87.5%，但目前仍远低于其历史高点。
"We're seeing more of a trend change now where software has recaptured the leadership reins, and we think there's a window here for outperformance in software over semiconductors." The software index is up 5 per cent this year while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index, home to many US chipmakers, has surged 87.5 per cent in 2026, but is well off its highs.
根据LSEG的数据，2026年该行业预期的年度盈利增长率已升至20.6%，而今年3月底时的预期值仅为13.8%。
The sector's expected annual earnings growth rate for 2026 has climbed to 20.6 per cent, up from 13.8 per cent at the end of March, according to LSEG data.
“软件行业末日论”被证实为过度担忧：今年1月下旬至4月期间，受“企业可借助人工智能以更低成本自主开发软件应用”这一担忧情绪驱动，该软件指数一度下跌逾26%，此次跌势被市场称为“软件行业末日论”。如今分析师们普遍认为，这种担忧其实缺乏事实依据。
'SAASPOCALYPSE' FEARS OVERDONE The software index lost more than 26 per cent from late January to its lowest point in April, in a selloff dubbed "SaaSpocalypse", driven by fears that companies could use AI to build applications in-house more cheaply. Analysts now say the fear ran ahead of evidence.
“所谓的‘SaaS末日’并未像华尔街部分人士预想的那样迅速到来，”科技研究公司Valoir的首席执行官丽贝卡·韦特曼说道。她补充称，随着人工智能应用逐渐脱离试验阶段，各供应商都反映客户接受度正在稳步提升。
"The whole SaaSpocalypse didn't happen anywhere near as fast as some of the people on Wall Street thought it would," said Rebecca Wettemann, CEO of technology research firm Valoir, adding that vendors were reporting customer uptake as AI adoption moved beyond the experimental stage.
不过，由于这项技术仍在快速演进并不断颠覆现有商业模式，整个行业仍面临诸多风险。
Still, risks to the sector persist as the fast-evolving technology upends business models.
Zacks投资管理公司的市场策略主管布莱恩·穆尔贝里指出，软件类股票面临的真正考验可能出现在2027年下半年，届时数据中心容量进一步提升，人工智能编程或将对传统软件企业构成更大威胁。
Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management, said the real test for software stocks could come in the second half of 2027, when more data center capacity might make AI coding a bigger threat to traditional software firms.