凯米·巴德诺克目前比她的政党更受欢迎——保守党希望这种光环能惠及他们。
Kemi Badenoch is more popular than her party right now - Tories are hoping it will rub off on them.
文/布赖恩·惠勒 政治党代会可能是奇怪的活动——积极的思维和充满希望的言辞往往会挤占现实。
By Brian Wheeler Political party conferences can be weird events - where positive thinking and hopeful rhetoric can crowd out reality.
如果你花足够多的时间与志同道合的人饮酒社交，任何事情似乎都变得可能。这或许能解释今年伯明翰保守党大会上那种乐观向上的氛围。
If you spend enough time drinking and socialising with like-minded people anything can seem possible. That could be one explanation for the upbeat mood of this year's Conservative gathering in Birmingham.
表面上看，自2024年惨败下台以来，该党几乎没有取得任何进展。根据一些民调，如果明天举行大选，其表现将比那时更差。
On the face of it, the party has made little progress since it was emphatically ejected from power in 2024. If an election was held tomorrow, it would do even worse than it did back then, according to some polls.
然而，包括领袖巴德诺克在内的高层人物，却在谈论彻底赢得下届大选并组建政府。
Yet senior figures, including leader Kemi Badenoch, are talking about winning the next general election outright and forming a government.
他们乐观的原因之一是，目前似乎已化解了被英国改革党摧毁或吞并的威胁——这一前景曾笼罩着去年的大会，当时流言四起，传有人将倒戈，并猜测会与奈杰尔·法拉奇达成交易。另一个原因是巴德诺克本人，她似乎给公众留下了积极印象。
One reason for their optimism is that they appear to have seen off, for now, the threat of being destroyed or swallowed up by Reform UK - a prospect which hung over last year's conference amid swirling rumours of defections and speculation about deals with Nigel Farage. Another is Badenoch herself, who appears to have made a positive impression on the public.
根据民调机构"More In Common"的数据，她的支持率近月飙升，目前是仅有的两位净支持率为正值的党魁之一（另一位是首相安迪·伯纳姆）。
Her approval rating has soared in recent months and she is now one of only two party leaders with a net positive rating (the other being Prime Minister Andy Burnham), according to pollsters More In Common.
在一次座无虚席的边会发言中，"More In Common"的卢克·特里尔表示，焦点小组认为这位保守党领袖是一股"清新的空气"，许多右翼选民形容她是一个不怕"直言不讳"的人。
In a presentation to a packed fringe meeting, More In Common's Luke Tryl said the Tory leader is seen as a "breath of fresh air" by focus groups, with many voters on the right describing her as someone unafraid to "say it as it is".
特里尔称，特别是她在首相答问环节中犀利的表现，给观众留下了深刻印象，赢得了"聪明"、"专业"和"有原则"等赞誉。
In particular, her punchy performances at Prime Minister's Questions have made a strong impression, earning plaudits such as "intelligent", "professional" and "principled" from those who have seen her in action, according to Tryl.
但他补充道，与伯纳姆一样，巴德诺克的个人声望尚未延伸至其政党，保守党仍被视为"过时"和"分裂"。
But like Burnham, Badenoch's personal popularity has yet to transfer to her party, he added, with the Tories being seen as "outdated" and "divided".
与他在去年保守党会议上的演讲相比，这并不全是悲观的，而且有“复苏的迹象”，Tryl说，在适当的情况下，有大量选民可能会考虑投票给保守党。
It was not all gloom – in contrast to his presentation at last year's Tory conference – and there were "signs of recovery", Tryl said, with a large pool of voters out there who might consider voting Tory, under the right circumstances.
保守党人坦率地承认，他们面临的问题是，选民不相信他们会兑现任何承诺，因为他们在政府中有14年的时间来解决他们现在所说的如此紧迫的问题。
Conservatives freely admit the problem they have got is that voters don't trust them to deliver on any of their promises, when they had 14 years in government to do something about the problems they now say are so pressing.
“当然，凯米领先于我们，我们知道这一点，”保守党主席凯文霍林雷克告诉更多的共同会议。“因为人们确实信任凯米，他们不信任我们，这就是我会怎么说。“但我们正在此基础上再接再厉。"巴德诺克回答信任问题时表示，该党现在处于新的管理层之下。
"Of course, Kemi's ahead of us, we know that," Conservative chairman Kevin Hollinrake told the More in Common meeting. "Because people do trust Kemi and they don't trust us, that's how I would put it in a nutshell. "But we are building on that." Badenoch answers the trust question by saying that the party is under new management now.
她放弃了一些“文化战争”的言论，转而专注于经济，并制定了她的指导原则，这相当于回归老派保守主义。
She has ditched some of the "culture war" rhetoric and is focusing hard on the economy, and setting out her guiding principles, which amount to a return to old-school Conservatism.
她并不是说如果现在举行，该党就能彻底赢得选举，而是认为没有人能。
She is not saying that the party could win an election outright if it was held now, arguing that no one could.
但她排除了与英国改革党在悬浮议会中执政的可能性，并告诉BBC她宁愿举行另一次选举。
But she has ruled out governing with Reform UK in a hung parliament, telling the BBC she would rather hold another election. Hollinrake sounded a cautious note at the More In Common fringe.
霍林雷克在More In Common边缘艺术节上发出了谨慎的声音。
"We are not where we need to be right now. We don't want an election right now, ideally.
“我们现在还没有达到我们需要达到的水平。理想情况下，我们现在不想举行选举。理想情况下，它会沿着轨道走下去。“但副党魁亚历克斯·伯格哈特很快强调，该党正在尽一切努力确保为提前选举做好准备。“我们现在正在为选举做准备，”他在会议上说。
Ideally, it would come way down the track." But deputy leader Alex Burghart was quick to stress that the party is making every effort to ensure it is ready for a snap election. "We are preparing for an election now," he told the meeting.
“我们相信我们能够彻底赢得选举。“他声称保守党比近代历史上任何时候都更加团结，但鲍里斯·约翰逊2019年获胜的后果可能是例外。
"We are convinced we can win the election outright." He claimed the Tories were more united than at any time in their recent history, with the possible exception of the aftermath of Boris Johnson's 2019 victory.
但在民意调查中，他们仍然落后改革党四五个百分点，落后工党多达九个百分点。
But they still trail Reform by four or five points in the polls and are as much as nine points behind Labour.
前苏格兰保守党领袖露丝·戴维森夫人表示，该党面临的下一个挑战是成为“前两名”之一。
The next challenge for the party, former Scottish Conservative leader Dame Ruth Davidson said, was to become one of the "top two".
她认为，到那时，希望看到工党下台的选民将开始大量转向保守党。
At that point, voters who want to see the back of Labour would start moving to the Tories in serious numbers, she argued.
战术投票可能在下次选举中至关重要，无论何时，许多人投票是为了让政党失去权力，而不是为了他们想获胜的人。保守党认为他们在这里也有强大的实力。
Tactical voting could prove crucial at the next election, whenever it comes, with many people voting to keep parties out of power rather than for who they want to win. The Tories think they have a strong hand here too.
“历史上第一次，保守党现在是这个国家最不受人讨厌的政党，”霍林雷克在笑声和掌声中宣布。
"For the first time in history, the Conservative Party is now the least hated political party in the country," declared Hollinrake, to laughter and applause.
“当涉及到战术投票时，这真的很重要。“也许不是你在党的会议上听到的最鼓舞人心的号召，但它是基于现实的。
"When it comes to tactical voting, that's really important." Not the most inspiring rallying cry you will hear at a party conference, perhaps, but it is grounded in reality.