
劳拉·昆斯伯格:凯米·巴德诺克巩固了她的形象。现在,她希望让她的政党回归本源。这位保守党领袖预计将在该党年度会议上提出回归保守派核心原则的目标。
Laura Kuenssberg: Kemi Badenoch has cemented her image. Now she wants to take her party back to its roots The Conservative leader is expected to set out a return to core conservative principles at the party’s annual conference.
作者:劳拉·昆斯伯格(Laura Kuenssberg)2026年保守党会议规模足够大,足以再次将伯明翰交响乐厅用作其主舞台。
By Laura Kuenssberg The 2026 Conservative conference is big enough to justify using Birmingham's Symphony Hall as its main stage again.
因此,凯米·巴德诺克(Kemi Badenoch)将踏上与玛丽莲(Marillion)上个月登上的同一舞台,而亮片女高音凯瑟琳·詹金斯(Katherine Jenkins)将于下周在那里表演。她还将避免国家党领导人被挤在企业会议中心的侧室里(窗帘将空荡荡的空间隔开)的羞辱。简而言之,该党能够再次让流浪者坐在座位上--从这一标准来看,情况正在好转。
So, Kemi Badenoch will tread the same stage ageing rockers Marillion took last month - and where sequinned soprano Katherine Jenkins will perform next week. She'll also avoid the humiliation of a national party leader being squashed into a side room at a corporate conference centre (with drapes portioning off the empty space). Simply, the party is able to put bums on seats again - and by that measure, things are looking up.
巴德诺克在党内地位稳固的情况下进入会议。一位资深保守党人表示,“她实际上反抗了像我这样的愤世嫉俗者”,他们最初不赞成她的领导。她在公众中的地位有所提高,现在她又以一个非常简单但至关重要的措施出名了。她的盟友确信她在公众中已经形成了明确的身份,并吐露道:“人们现在知道她是谁,他们喜欢她的干预--我们听到最多的是,我并不总是同意她的观点,但我知道她的立场。“但保守党议员意识到,该党本身仍然存在一个更大的问题--用一位影子内阁成员的话来说:‘我们仍然存在的问题是对党和品牌的信任’。多年混乱的阴影仍然隐约可见。尽管巴德诺克自上任以来取得了良好的进展,但其中大部分进展都是针对不受欢迎的首相凯尔·斯塔默爵士,她对他进行了大量政治打击。另一位资深保守党人表示,她必须展示“现在的保守党是什么”,并与另一位更受欢迎的竞争对手安迪·伯纳姆(Andy Burnham)展开较量。
Badenoch goes into the conference with her own position secure in the party. One senior Tory says "she has actually defied cynics like me" who initially disapproved of her leadership. Her standing with the public has improved and she is now, again on a very simple but crucial measure, much better known. Her allies are sure she has developed a clear identity among the public, confiding: "People now know who she is and they enjoy her interventions - the thing we hear most is I don't always agree with her but I know where she stands." But Conservative MPs are aware that the party itself still has a much bigger issue - in the words of one shadow cabinet member: "The problem we still have is trust of the party and the brand". The shadow of the years of chaos still looms. And while Badenoch has made good progress since she took the job, most of that was up against an unpopular prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, on whom she landed plenty of political punches. She has to show "what being Conservative is now", says another senior Tory, taking on a different, more popular, rival in Andy Burnham.
到目前为止,保守党对会议的热身一直是如此传统。监狱设施大幅扩建的提议拉开了巴德诺克第二次大型派对的序幕。这句话呼应了前领导人迈克尔·霍华德在党内会议上发出的20世纪90年代初保守党的著名口号:“监狱有效”。他们不仅仅是在谈论在这里和那里增加一些牢房,而是在大幅增加该国关押的人数。
The Tories' warm-up to conference has been so far, so traditional. A proposed dramatic expansion of prison places kicks off Badenoch's second big party get-together. With it, a message that echoes the well-known mantra of the early 1990s Tories, issued by former leader Michael Howard at party conference: "Prison works". They are not just talking about adding on a few cells here and there, but spelling out a monumental increase in the numbers of people that the country locks up.
此前,针对试图申请福利的年轻人宣布了一种新的“严厉爱”方法。不要指望影子工作和养老金大臣海伦·瓦特利(Helen Whateley)会像时任福利大臣彼得·利(Peter Lilley)在台上宣称他有“一小份福利申请人名单”一样引起争议。他想要根除。但保守党决心继续关注福利法案的规模--相信出于财务和道德原因这样做是正确的。
That follows the announcement of a new "tough love" approach for young people trying to claim benefits. Don't expect the shadow work and pensions secretary, Helen Whateley, to produce a moment as controversial as when the then-welfare secretary, Peter Lilley, proclaimed from the stage that he had "a little list" of benefit claimants he wanted to root out. But the Conservatives are determined to keep concentrating on the size of the welfare bill – believing it's right to do so for financial and moral reasons.
本周你可能会听到更多关于保守派基本原则的消息:人们保留更多自己的钱,政府只在真正需要的时候介入,对国家债务水平和公共支出的尖锐担忧。当然,这也意味着凯米·巴德诺克否认了保守党在2010年至2024年期间所做的大部分事情,当时公务员队伍增加,税收负担增加,通过了一项法律试图应对气候变化,名单还在继续。
You can expect to hear more in the week about fundamental conservative principles: people keeping more of their own money, government only stepping in when really required to, pointed concern about the level of the country's debt and public spending. And again, of course, that means Kemi Badenoch disavowing much of what the Conservatives did in office between 2010 and 2024, when the civil service grew, the tax burden grew, a law was passed to try to combat climate change, the list goes on.
在接下来的几天里,她将详细阐述她所认为的经典保守主义第一原则:她认为,在过去的几年里,保守党的核心信念是建立在和偏离的基础上的。如果说有什么不同的话,巴德诺克本周告诉采访者,该党“终于说出了我们的信念”,在展示该党核心方面“应该更加积极”。
She'll set out at some length in the coming days what she sees as classic conservative first principles: the core beliefs the party was founded on and drifted from, she reckons, in the years gone by. If anything, Badenoch told interviewers this week the party was "finally saying what we believe" and "should be more aggressive" in displaying the party's core.
她认为,安迪·伯纳姆的到来让这一点变得更容易了。两人之间的对比也更加鲜明。巴德诺克的一名资深盟友称,伯纳姆“已经很好地为此打开了大门,因为他回望20世纪70年代的方式让我深感意外”。不过,该盟友补充道,伯纳姆领衔的工党所营造的宜人氛围终究只是表面气氛:“这就像一个童话,他前来拯救英国,手里只有一根魔杖,别的什么也没有。”
She believes the arrival of Andy Burnham makes that easier. There's a clearer contrast between the two. A senior ally of Badenoch says Burnham has "opened the door to it quite well, as he has harked back to the '70s in a way that I'm astonished by". Suggesting the pleasing atmospherics of Burnham's Labour are just that, atmospherics, the ally adds: "It's like a fairy story where he has come to the rescue of Britain and he has a wand in his hand and nothing else".
正如我们几周前谈到的,如今伯纳姆已经上任,工党与保守党之间的反差更加鲜明,党代会季只会进一步放大这种差异。双方都很乐意通过各自的信息——无论是否带有怀旧色彩——强调这一点;这些信息旨在展现各自阵营的真实内核。
As we talked about a couple of weeks ago, the contrasts between Labour and the Conservatives are sharper now Burnham is in post, and the conference season is only serving to exaggerate that. They are both only too happy to emphasise it with their messages, retro or not, designed to show the true souls of their tribes.
不过,巴德诺克或许会发现,与伯纳姆进行明确的论争,要比围绕程序问题与斯塔默纠缠更容易。但要面对一位至少目前更能吸引公众的对手,仍然更加困难。与此同时,尽管许多保守党人私下希望改革党可能已经见顶,但他们无法确定这是事实,也无法确定那些抛弃保守党、转投法拉奇旗下政党的大批选民会重新回来。
But while Badenoch might find it easier to argue clearly with Burnham, rather than tangle with Starmer over process, it is harder to face an opponent who, at least for now, is proving more appealing to the public. And while plenty of Conservatives are hopeful in private that Reform might have peaked, they can't be sure that's true, or that the swathes of voters who abandoned the Tories for Farage's party will return.
巴德诺克似乎一向本能地排斥与改革党达成任何形式的交易,她斥责改革党只是一个抗议政党。她的盟友希望改革党的吸引力会逐渐消退,有些人甚至认为这种消退板上钉钉,从而让保守党再次成为最合理的执政选择。但基本的政治算术表明,只要仍有数百万右翼选民受法拉奇吸引,保守党就更难取胜。一名影子大臣承认:“我们仍需在右翼阵线上打完一场硬仗”,尽管“基米的大胆”正开始取得突破。
Badenoch has always seemed allergic to the idea of doing any kind of deal with Reform, who she dismisses as a party of protest. And her allies hope, and some believe, that Reform's appeal will fade, making the Conservatives again the obvious alternative government. But fundamental arithmetic displays that, for as long as millions of voters on the right are tempted by Farage, it's harder for the Tories to triumph. One shadow minister admits "we've still got a whole battle on the right" even though "Kemi's boldness" is beginning to break through.
因此,接下来几天,人们将看到一场“保守党传统技艺的经典展示”:该党领袖将试图阐明其对国家以及国家应如何治理的基本信念。
So, in the coming next days, prepare for a "classic showing of Tory wares": an attempt by the party's leader to set out their fundamental beliefs about the country and how it should be governed.
凯米·巴德诺克(Kemi Badenoch)有一些神经可能会倒退到以前的时代。有一次,另一位新自信的领导人戴维·卡梅伦(David Cameron)在会议舞台上,在数字制作的绿叶和阳光面前迎来了现代保守党。一位前内阁部长警告说,这是“很大的风险--很容易陷入疏远的分裂方式--肮脏的政党事情”。
There are pockets of nerves that Kemi Badenoch risks rewinding to an previous era. One when another newly confident leader, David Cameron, ushered in the modern Tory party on the conference stage in front of digitally produced green foliage and sunlight. One former cabinet minister warns that it's "the big risk – so easy to slip into an alienating divisive manner – nasty party stuff".
在谈到政策并采取正确的语气时,他们警告说,巴德诺克必须“记住,她必须赢得切尔滕纳姆、梅登黑德以及克拉克顿”。
When it comes to policy, and striking the right tone, they warn that Badenoch must "be mindful that she has to win Cheltenham and Maidenhead as well as Clacton".
但凯米·巴德诺克显然更加自信,也意识到了摆在她面前的机会--似乎并不担心与你进行越来越直接的争论可能带来的缺点,而是渴望跨越伯明翰这个幸运的更大的舞台。
But Kemi Badenoch is visibly more confident and is aware of the chance in front of her – seemingly unworried about the possible downsides of making an increasingly direct argument to you, eager to stride that mercifully bigger Birmingham stage.
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BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. Emma Barnett and John Simpson bring their pick of the most thought-provoking deep reads and analysis, every Saturday. here