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“全是我”:保守党借凯米·巴德诺赫的人气浪潮势头正盛‘All me’: Tory party riding high on Kemi Badenoch’s wave of popularity

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凯米·巴adenoch说道:“现在有了新‘船长’、新‘教练’,实际上还有新‘老板’——说的就是我本人。” 摄影:伊恩·福赛斯/盖蒂图片社Kemi Badenoch: ‘There’s a new captain, there’s a new coach, there’s a new owner, effectively – which is all me.’ Photograph: Ian Forsyth/Getty Images

“处于新的管理之下”,但在一次电视采访中,为了庆祝一场她几乎主导了所有议程的党代会议程结束,她进一步延伸了这个比喻。

were “under new management”, but in a TV interview to mark the end of a party conference at which she has been front and centre of more or less everything, she took the analogy further.

“观众朋友们都知道,有时一支足球队的表现会令人失望,”这位保守党领袖对GB News说道。“他们换了一位新队长、一位新教练,实际上还有一位新老板——而这一切都是我。”即使对于一位以铁一般的自信著称的政治家而言,这些话也显得相当大胆。但这并非夸张。巴登诺奇不仅在民意调查中超越了她的政党,她还正忙于按照自己的形象重塑该党。

“Your viewers will know that sometimes you have a football team that’s disappointing,” the Tory leader told GB News. “There’s a new captain, there’s a new coach, there’s a new owner, effectively – which is all me.”These are bold words even for a politician known to possess an iron-clad self confidence. But they are no exaggeration. Badenoch is not only outperforming her party in polling terms, she is busy remaking it in her own image.

大致的意识形态方向早已确定:巴登诺奇在今年年初明确表示,中间派的理念已不再需要。她的影子内阁中仍有一些较为温和的人物,但他们都认同右倾的议程,包括反对“净零排放”目标以及废除多项人权保护。不过,巴登诺奇身边的人表示,她的控制力还更进一步:例如,在党代会议前夕宣布向收入超过10万英镑的人群提供免费托儿服务这一政策决定,纯粹是因为她认为这是正确的做法。

The broad ideological direction was already set, with Badenoch saying explicitly at the start of this year that centrist ideas were no longer wanted. Some more moderate figures remain in her shadow cabinet, but they are signed up to a right-leaning agenda, including opposition to net zero and a bonfire of human rights protections Those around Badenoch say, however, that her control goes further, with policy decisions such as the move to grant free childcare to people with incomes above £100,000, announced on the eve of the conference, made simply because she believes they are the right thing to do.

“制定政策并不是为了迎合特定的选民群体,”一位影子内阁部长说道。“她关注的是她认为需要解决的问题,以及她觉得哪里出了错。”

“With policies it’s not about chasing certain groups of voters,” one shadow cabinet minister said. “She focuses on what she thinks needs to be fixed, what she feels is wrong.”

他们表示,要说服她改变一项政策决定几乎不可能:“这根本不会发生——她的立场如同刻在石板上的律法。她不会改变主意,因为她清楚政策必须是什么。”许多政党在某种程度上都围绕其领袖形成了一种“崇拜”,但对于2026年周期的保守党而言,这种情况尤为明显。议员们表示,在街头与选民交谈时,巴登诺奇所获得的钦佩和尊重,甚至超过了整个政党本身。

Talking her out of a policy decision, they said, was a tall order: “It’s not going to happen – it’s tablets of stone. She’s not going to change her mind. She knows what the policies have to be.”Many political parties are, to a greater or less extent, a cult based around the leader, but this is particularly the case for the 2026-period Conservatives, where MPs say Badenoch is talked about on the doorsteps with an admiration and respect not accorded to their party more widely.

众多摄影师与与会代表争相拍摄巴adenoch的照片。摄影:克里斯托弗·弗隆/盖蒂图片社Photographers and delegates clamour to get a picture of Badenoch. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

多位议员回忆说,她的名字常常被主动提及。其中一位表示:“人们总是以积极的方式谈论她。关键在于,在一个大多数人连几个政治人物的名字都叫不出来的世界里,他们知道她是谁。”在伯明翰举行的保守党大会期间,这种核心地位显而易见,尤其是巴登诺奇抵达时,一群挥舞旗帜的活动人士高喊着“凯米,凯米”迎接她。

Multiple MPs recount how her name is raised unprompted. One said: “She’s brought up in a positive way. Crucially, in a world where most people couldn’t name more than a handful of politicians, they know who she is.”This starring role was obvious throughout the Conservatives’ conference in Birmingham, not least Badenoch’s arrival, which saw her greeted by a flag-waving crowd of activists chanting, “Kemi, Kemi”.

在会场内部,巴登诺奇是党内“伯明翰织锦”主题展示中的英雄式核心人物。这一主题以虚构的12世纪风格呈现,画面中她既训斥韦斯·斯特里廷,又坐在坦克的炮塔上。

Inside the venue, Badenoch was the heroic centrepiece of the party’s “Birmingham tapestry” shown in mocked-up 12th-century form doing everything from chastising Wes Streeting to sitting in the turret of a tank.

这种推崇并非仅仅源于一个急于摆脱前任领导人频繁更替局面的政党的空想。尽管去年的大会被视为巴登诺奇能否立足的关键时刻,但即便她的政党在民意调查中的支持率仍徘徊在20%左右,如今她的地位已被视为稳固,而保守党也比多年来的任何时候都更加团结。

Such veneration is not just wishful thinking by a party eager to move on from a revolving door of previous leaders. While last year’s conference was viewed as make-or-break for Badenoch, even with her party still bumping along at 20% or so in the polls her position is now seen as secure, with the Conservatives more unified than they have been for years.

这在一定程度上,是由于一些长期不满的党内人士离开了保守党,加入了英国改革党,尤其是罗伯特·詹里克;此外,该党在议会下院的规模也缩小了。正如一位影子内阁部长所指出的,现在的规模太小,难以形成派系:“我们几乎只能挤在披萨快餐厅的一张角落桌旁。”不过,党内仍存在私下疑虑,例如巴登诺奇倾向于介入文化战争,而非专注于经济问题——而身边的人认为,经济才是该党在选举中最强的王牌。

This is in part the result of some serial malcontents leaving for Reform UK, especially Robert Jenrick as well as the party’s diminished size in the Commons, which as one shadow cabinet minister notes, is too small for factions: “We could just about fill a corner table in Pizza Express.”There are still private doubts, including Badenoch’s instinct to lean into culture wars rather than focus on the economy, which those around her believe is the party’s strongest electoral card.

这幅“伯明翰织锦图”描绘了巴adenoch“驱逐”转投“改革英国党”的罗伯特·詹里克的场景。摄影:克里斯托弗·汤姆蒙德/《卫报》The ‘Birmingham tapestry’ showing Badenoch ‘expelling’ Robert Jenrick, who defected to Reform UK. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The Guardian

一些党内人士也质疑,巴登诺奇是否真的在考虑选举策略,因为她的政策选择非常个人化,而在伯明翰的会议上,这些政策主要体现为向富裕人群提供税收减免。

Some party figures also wonder if Badenoch is thinking about election strategy at all with her very personal suite of policy choices, which in Birmingham mainly consisted of giving tax breaks to wealthier people.

这一倾向在她的大会闭幕演讲中达到顶峰:她宣布,由她领导的政府将把民众的住房排除在遗产税之外。然而,考虑到这项税收仅针对价值超过50万英镑的房产,这一政策在伦敦和英格兰东南部以外的地区基本只是理论上的设想。

This was capped in her end-of-conference speech with the announcement that a Badenoch-led government would exempt people’s homes from inheritance tax, an idea which, given that the levy only begins on property worth more than £500,000, is a largely theoretical idea outside London and the south-east of England.

尽管此类政策可能对2024年转向自由民主党(Liberal Democrats)的富裕选区选民颇具吸引力,但这似乎并非其计划。在另一次电视采访中,巴德诺克(Badenoch)批评提问者暗示她的减税政策旨在重新赢得这类支持。

While such policies could be appealing to prosperous home counties voters who defected to the Liberal Democrats in 2024, this does not seem to be the plan. During another TV interview, Badenoch chided her questioner for suggesting her tax cuts were aimed at bringing back such support.

“你从如此粗俗的选举角度看待这件事,我感到非常遗憾,”她说。“正是这种思维让我们陷入了持续困境——我们总是想着如何赢得选举,而不是思考什么才是真正有效的。”

“I’m very sad that you’re looking at this in crude electoral terms,” she said. “That’s how we’ve all got into this problem where we keep thinking about winning elections rather than thinking about what works.”

一位前保守党策略师表示,这种做法存在前后矛盾的风险:“我无法理解这些声明究竟想达成什么目标。先别管那些零零碎碎的小举措,干脆直接动用资金,为中等收入群体实施大幅减税。”

One former Tory strategist said there was a risk of incoherence: “I can’t understand what is being achieved with these announcements. Forget lots of the small ones, just use the money and do a big tax cut for middle earners.”

这位策略师还补充说,情况不太可能改变:“说实话,人们对她感到畏惧。我认为她的团队里很多人根本不知道如何拒绝她。”然而,与足球一样,政治也并非一个人的游戏,明星球员或教练所能带来的影响终究有限。尽管巴德诺克在演讲中极力称赞同事,但可以说,影子内阁的其他成员明显跟不上她的步伐。

There was, they added, little chance things would change: “People are scared of her to be honest. I think a lot of her team don’t know how to say no to her.”However much like football, politics is not a one-person game, and a star player or manager will only get you so far. And while Badenoch was at pains to praise colleagues in her speech, it is fair to say that the rest of the shadow cabinet is lagging.

巴德诺克新任影子财政大臣安德鲁·格里菲斯(Andrew Griffith)因其私营领域的商业专长而受到上司盛赞。但周一,他发表了一场被普遍认为是近年来各大会议中最糟糕的演讲之一。

Andrew Griffith, Badenoch’s new shadow chancellor, was feted by his boss for his private sector business expertise. But on Monday he gave a speech widely seen as one of the worst delivered to any conference in years.

凯米·巴adenoch正在测量拟任影子财政大臣之人的尺寸。摄影:杰克·泰勒/盖蒂图片社Kemi Badenoch takes her shadow chancellor’s measurements. Photograph: Jack Taylor/Getty Images

这不仅关乎能力,也与知名度有关。根据YouGov的民调,90%的选民认识巴德诺克,但只有22%的人知道格里菲斯是谁。他的多位同事情况类似,而民调机构指出,这一比例甚至可能被那些不愿承认自己不认识她的人夸大了。

It is a matter of profile as well as ability. While Badenoch is recognised by 90% of voters, according to YouGov polling, only 22% say they know who Griffith is. A number of his colleagues are on similar ratings, with pollsters saying even these are likely to be inflated by people who don’t want to admit ignorance.

经验丰富的汤姆·图根达特(Tom Tugendhat)目前负责外交事务,表现稍好,有46%的民众认识他。影子教育部长劳拉·特罗特(Laura Trott)的知名度则达到50%,但这部分是因为有人将她与奥运自行车手劳拉·肯尼(Laura Kenny)混淆了——后者过去与她的名字相同。

The experienced Tom Tugendhat, now in the foreign affairs brief, does slightly better, on 46%. Laura Trott, the shadow education secretary, hits 50%, but this is because some people mistake her for the Olympic cyclist, now Laura Kenny, formerly of the same name.

伯明翰方面对巴德诺奇将其他人完全压过风头一事感到有些不安。“我们难道没有变成‘一人独大’政党的危险吗?”一名活动人士向影子内阁成员中的一小群人问道。

There was some unease in Birmingham about Badenoch blotting out everyone else. “Isn’t there a danger we are becoming a one woman party?” one activist asked a fringe of shadow cabinet members.

其他人则持不同看法。“对于一个不得人心的反对党来说,这是很正常的动态,”影子司法大臣尼克·蒂莫西表示。“它需要一个强有力的、能提升党声望的领袖,我们应该庆幸自己拥有她。”

Others disagree. “It’s a normal dynamic for an opposition party that is unpopular,” said Nick Timothy, the shadow justice secretary. “It needs a strong popular leader that can pull it up and we should thank our lucky stars that we have her.”

无论如何,大多数保守党人现在都接受这样一个事实:眼下,由巴德诺奇来决定保守党的发展方向,无论这意味着什么。一位盟友说:“我们在经济问题上赢得选举,但告诉凯米不要做任何事也没有意义。”

Either way, most Conservatives now accept that, for now, it is up to Badenoch to chart the Conservatives’ course, whatever it involves. One ally said: “We win elections on the economy but there’s no point telling Kemi not to do anything.”