字号·· | 护眼
彭博社

英国最新一位撒切尔继承人正干得风生水起Britain’s Latest Heir to Thatcher Is Having a Blast

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

凯米·巴德诺赫:锋芒毕露的戏剧化风格。摄影师:莱昂·尼尔/盖蒂图片社欧洲Kemi Badenoch: spiky theatrics. Photographer: Leon Neal/Getty Images Europe

如果说英国政坛最难干的工作是“陛下的忠诚反对党领袖”,没人告诉过凯米·巴德诺赫。自2024年成为保守党领袖以来——那时距离该党遭遇最惨痛大选失利仅几个月——巴德奈赫常不得不忍受被奈杰尔·法拉奇及其强硬派“改革英国党”抢尽风头。她能在这样的局面下奋力突围,着实令人印象深刻。

If the worst job in British politics is leader of his majesty’s loyal opposition, nobody told Kemi Badenoch. Since becoming Conservative leader in 2024, months after the party’s worst election defeat, Badenoch has often had to put up with being eclipsed by Nigel Farage and his hard-right Reform UK. Her success in battling that is impressive.

今年早些时候,保守党的危机仿佛关乎生死存亡。大批资深议员倒戈法拉奇及其反移民政党,地方选举中选民也纷纷背弃。即便在今天,保守党在民调中也仅偶尔领先深陷丑闻的“改革英国党”。巴德诺赫个人净支持率在-12至-15之间徘徊,远落后于工党籍首相安迪·伯纳姆。

The Tory crisis seemed existential earlier this year. A flood of top lawmakers defected to Farage and his anti-migrant party, as did voters in local elections. Even today, the Conservatives are only sometimes polling ahead of the scandal-hit Reform. Badenoch’s personal ratings are hardly glowing at a net figure of between -12 and -15, well behind Labour Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

但看看巴德诺赫在下议院或其他场合的发言表现。她显然乐在其中,妙语连珠、自得其乐。对她而言,在野并非折磨——这对许多前任来说却是常态。这种“看起来很快乐”的特质,她与伯纳姆不谋而合,其价值不容小觑。

Yet watch Badenoch speaking in the House of Commons or elsewhere. She’s clearly enjoying herself, chuckling as a zinger lands. Opposition isn’t torture for her as it was for many predecessors. Appearing to have fun is a quality she shares with Burnham, one that shouldn’t be underestimated.

前首相基尔·斯塔默为人稳重,其如“艾奥”(Eeyore,小熊维尼里忧郁的驴)般的公众形象,压抑了本已低迷的国民情绪。正如伯纳姆的“良好氛围”助推了工党,巴德诺赫犀利的表演风格也帮助遏制了本党令人担忧的颓势。

The former PM Keir Starmer was a solid type whose Eeyore-like public persona depressed the nation’s already sagging spirits. Just as Burnham’s “good vibes” have boosted Labour, Badenoch’s spiky theatrics have helped arrest her party’s alarming decline.

近代史上最贴切的对比对象是威廉·黑格,他同样在大选惨败——1997年败给工党的托尼·布莱尔——后接任保守党领袖兼反对党领袖。他在下议院调度箱前表现惊人地幽默风趣,却依然显得力不从心,难以将党重新拉回竞争行列。继任者伊恩·邓肯·史密斯更是直接“萎缩”了。

The obvious comparison to Badenoch from recent history is William Hague, who also became Tory leader and head of the opposition after an electoral trouncing — to Labour’s Tony Blair in 1997. A surprisingly funny performer at the Commons despatch box, he nevertheless seemed dwarfed by the task of clawing his party back into the game. Next up was Iain Duncan Smith, who just shrank.

直到戴维·卡梅伦接任保守党领袖,该党才重新具备了当选执政的可能。作为一名伊顿公学校友,他散发着贵族般的自信,且运气不错,只需面对布莱尔那位政治上极不顺遂的继任者戈登·布朗。如今斯塔默已离任,巴德诺克的运气不如卡梅伦,但她显然也是一位对自己极其自信、游刃有余的政治家。

It wasn’t until David Cameron took the Tory leadership that they became electable again. An old Etonian who oozed patrician self-assurance, he was assisted by only having to face off against Blair’s politically hapless successor, Gordon Brown. With Starmer gone, Badenoch is not so lucky, yet she’s clearly another politician comfortable in her own skin.

她最像玛格丽特·撒切尔,后者从1975年起领导保守党反对派,四年后成为首相。这既是好事也是坏事。像撒切尔一样,巴德诺克会挑起不必要的争斗,但她也取得过几场漂亮的胜利。前工党教育大臣布里奇特·菲利普森曾穿着一件印有巴德诺克对她口头攻击语录的T恤:“恶毒的阶级斗士。”前财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯在去年的预算辩论中遭到保守党领袖的猛烈抨击,从此再未真正恢复元气。

She seems most similar to Margaret Thatcher, who led the Conservative opposition from 1975 until becoming PM four years later. This is good and bad. Like Thatcher, Badenoch can pick unnecessary fights, though she has a few decent wins under her belt. Bridget Phillipson, the former Labour education secretary, wore a T-shirt printed with one of her verbal attacks: “Spiteful class warrior.”Ex-Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves never really recovered from a defenestration by the Tory leader during last year’s budget debate.

巴德诺克在党内也毫不留情。她拒绝让温和派前国防大臣格兰特·夏普斯以保守党候选人身份参加下届大选,并强制推行候选人忠诚度测试,要求他们签署支持在净零排放和人权问题上过于强硬的政策。

Badenoch is ruthless within her party, too. She has refused to allow the moderate former Defense Secretary Grant Shapps to run under the Conservative banner at the next election and has imposed candidate loyalty tests, demanding they sign up to overly hardline policies on net zero and human rights.

有时她表现得很勇敢,有效地揭露改革党的种族主义本质;有时她又显得粗鲁无礼。这种风格与伯纳姆那套更阳光、更讨好的表演风格形成鲜明对比,究竟鹿死谁手将十分引人入胜。她将伯纳姆描绘成一个轻量级人物、一个讨好者,无法做出艰难抉择。首相在工党大会上的演讲完全没有提及他的政治对手。

Sometimes she is brave, effectively calling out Reform for its racism. Other times she comes across as rude. How this plays out against Burnham’s sunnier shtick will be fascinating. She portrays him as a lightweight, a people pleaser, unable to make the difficult decisions. The PM’s Labour conference speech made no mention at all of his political rivals.

巴德诺克的强硬风格正在留下印记。据YouGov今夏的民调,受访者用来形容她的最常用词是“强硬”和“聪明”,紧随其后的则是“讨厌”和“刻薄”。我在商界和政界接触的人们正逐渐对她改观。她的党内同僚热爱她。在本月的保守党大会上,没有出现以往那种针对领袖的背后攻讦。

Badenoch’s punchiness is making a mark. In YouGov polling this summer, “strong” and “intelligent” were the most common words used by respondents to describe her, although “nasty” and “mean” weren’t far behind. People I talk to in business and politics are warming to her. Her party loves her. At the Tory conference this month, there was none of the usual backbiting about the leader.

伯纳姆和巴德诺赫各有各的风格,但都比他们的前任更具吸引力,因为他们看起来更真实。他们不会时刻担心自己会被如何看待。相比之下,2024年大选期间,工党领袖斯塔默与时任保守党首相苏纳克的辩论,双方都是前线政治中最为僵硬的两个人物,而这一对组合却能说人话。

Burnham and Badenoch, in their different ways, are more attractive than their predecessors because of an apparent authenticity. They’re not constantly scared about how they’ll be perceived. Compared with the 2024 election debates between Starmer and then Tory PM Rishi Sunak, two of the most wooden figures to serve in frontline politics, this pair can speak human.

但正如巴德诺赫无疑会质问伯纳姆的那样:干货在哪里?如果她真想提升自家政党的支持率,就得把这种真实感延伸到政策主张中去。

But as Badenoch would doubtless ask of Burnham, where’s the meat? If she really wants to pull her party up in the popularity stakes, she’ll need to carry that authenticity through into her policies.

她与法拉奇比拼谁的移民立场更强硬,这是判断失误;令人欣慰的是,她已在右翼政治中那丑陋的种族民族主义成分上调整了方向。她在党大会演讲中谈及自己“黑人英国人”的身份,谴责改革党挑起“关于我的混血孩子是否算英格兰人的辩论”。她在经济问题上也需要更务实。保守党最有力的攻击路径本应是工党的财政失控,以及任何政府未能控制开支、或进一步加重英国沉重债务负担的失职。

Her contest with Farage on who could have the harshest immigration views was ill-judged, and it’s encouraging that she has changed tack on the ugly ethno-nationalist element of right-wing politics. She spoke of her own Black British identity in her conference speech, condemning Reform for provoking a “debate [over] whether my mixed-race children are English.”She needs to get more real on the economy as well. The Tories’ strongest line of attack should be Labour’s fiscal incontinence, and of any government failure to get on top of spending or of adding to the UK’s crippling debt burden.

遗憾的是,她被党内机要人员说服,认为必须巩固保守党富裕的核心选民,尤其是在主要对手是中间派自由民主党的选区。于是她推出了一揽子讨好措施,惠及往往最不需要帮助的人群:全民免费托儿、遗产税减免,以及拒绝支持伯纳姆那项合理的承诺——改革国家养老金那些“镀金”般的保护机制。

Sadly, she has been persuaded by party apparatchiks that she needs to shore up the Tories’ wealthy core vote, particularly in constituencies where the main opponents are the centrist Liberal Democrats. So she has offered a grab bag of sweeteners to the people who often least need them: free childcare for all, inheritance-tax breaks and refusing to back Burnham’s sensible promise to reform the gold-plated protections on state pensions.

甚至法拉奇都给她贴上了“肯辛顿的凯米”标签,影射西伦敦那个富裕街区。更严重的是,她的计划资金来源缺乏清晰说明,导致保守党在经济上的主张,和工党承诺在借贷与税收不增的前提下却任由公共开支螺旋式上升一样,都令人生疑。

Even Farage has labeled her “Kensington Kemi,” after the well-heeled west London neighborhood. More serious, the lack of clarity over how her plans would be paid for means the Conservatives’ offering on the economy is as suspect as Labour’s pledge to keep borrowing and taxes down while allowing public spending to spiral.

如果巴德诺克真想做回真正的自己,或者成为撒切尔的合格继承人,最好的做法是回归一个显而易见的保守党使命,将经济稳定与信任置于首要目标。那样她或许也有机会在未来享受首相生活。

If Badenoch really wants to do authentic, or be a proper heir to Thatcher, far better to go back to a recognizably Conservative mission with the No.1 aim of stability and trust on the economy. Then she might also have a decent chance of enjoying life as a future prime minister.

阅读媒体原文 ↗